2019 MASTERS DK Picks/Value Bets/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

With the best week of the year in full swing now brings a slightly different format to this weekly article. I don’t want things to get stale and I think some of the information will be more valuable and insightful. I don’t have much to recap the Valero except for congrats to Corey Conners. I think that’s an amazing story to qualify in a 6 for 1 Monday qualifier and then come out to what I THOUGHT was a pretty difficult course and thoroughly dominate. After starting hot on Sunday and proceeding to make 4 consecutive bogeys I thought he was out of it, but credit to him for staying focused and seemingly sticking every approach to a few feet and draining nearly every putt. Congrats on your entry into the Masters, sir. Onto Magnolia Lane.

Course and Weather Notes: I’m not going to type out the extensive course notes but go check out my preview I posted last Friday ( 2019 MASTERS Preview ) for full trends, key stats, course notes, correlations, and more! The one thing to watch this week is the weather as there appears to be some gusty winds possible on Thursday/Friday and Sunday… woah. This could be similar scoring to 2016 where Danny Willett won at -5 and the cut was +6. I wouldn’t make decisions just based on wind but monitor it and use it as a tiebreaker if need be.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
  • SG: Par 5s
  • SG: OTT (DD emphasis)
  • BoB Gained
  • GIRs Gained
  • Scrambling

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership


The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another. For example, this week Rory ranks #1 in course history, #1 in stats, and #1 in current form… obviously you should be playing him unless it’s a pure ownership fade.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Dustin Johnson ($11,300) Projected Ownership: 18%; price/ownership discount from Rory and he is most likely, in this range, to not be as affected by the wind as others; has 2 wins and 3 Top 10s in his last 6 starts as well as 3 straight Top 10s at Augusta

2) Tiger Woods ($10,500) Projected Ownership: 16%; obviously I’m playing him… excels in the SG: APP blend, has about as much experience here as anybody and he’s in solid, not spectacular, form

3) Paul Casey ($9,000) Projected Ownership: 18%; cash game lock, ranks #1 in SG: Par 5s, and has finished Top 6 or better in 3 of the last 4 years; good form after another win at the Valspar

Fades

1) Bryson Dechambeau ($9,300) Projected Ownership: 10%; can’t play everyone and Augusta is one of the only places where you need at least 15 rounds or so to feel comfortable, in my opinion

2) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) Projected Ownership: 17%; will probably come in at higher ownership than that and I don’t think he makes enough birdies in this field if it becomes a scoring fast; only has 2 starts here and one was a MC

Favorite Pivot

Jason Day ($9,100) Projected Ownership: 11%; people will be off as they worry about a WD/they will drop to Casey/Spieth/Bubba or go up to Fleetwood; Day ranks 5th in BoB, 12th in SG: OTT, 13th in GIRs Gained, and 15th in SG: Par 5s; holds 2 Top 20s a Top 10, a 3rd and a 2nd at Augusta

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700) Projected Ownership: 20%; another cash game lock and chalk that I’m willing to eat as he’s too cheap having finished Top 20 or better here 4 years in a row (including a 7th and a 5th) and has shown better form recently; putting will always be his make or break but he’s first in my SG: APP blend, 2nd in SG: BS, and 9th in GIRs Gained

2) Ian Poulter ($7,600) Projected Ownership: 16%; getting a lot of buzz unfortunately so could be even higher owned but he’s in great form, can score on Par 5s, and makes birdies in bunches; has made 8 of last 9 cuts at Augusta which includes a 6th, 7th, and 10th place finish in that span

3) Brandt Snedeker ($7,200) Projected Ownership: 12%; has solid history at Augusta with 2 Top 20s and 2 Top 20s in 8 tries; not the longest hitter but if conditions to get gusty he is an elite wind player who will not struggle to maintain par; strong scrambler if he misses the green and despite not being a bomber ranks 20th in the field in SG: Par 5s

Fades

1) Webb Simpson ($7,400) Projected Ownership: 11%; I feel like he has lost some of his hot form over the last month or two and has never crushed Augusta as last year was his first Top 20 and he’s missed the cut in 3 of 7 tries; ranks outside Top 30 in the field in all stat categories except for scrambling

2) Tony Finau ($8,200) Projected Ownership: 18%; tough fade here as I like him a lot and he’s a great scorer but his form seems to be way off at this point and while he could definitely succeed here as he did in his debut (10th) I think I’m going elsewhere; best finish in his last 7 tournaments is a 13th back in January and stats wise, he misses too many greens and doesn’t scramble well enough right now

Favorite Pivot

Rafa Cabrera Bello ($7,500) Projected Ownership: 7%; had 1 poor showing at the PLAYERS but that result aside, he has a 3rd place finish and 3 Top 25s in his last 6 starts; only played here 3 times and has made the cut twice, which includes a 17th in 2016; per his stats, ranks 12th in BoB, 15th in SG: OTT, and 17th in SG: Par 5s; could be a sneaky player a rare elite player that goes under 10% at this price

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) J.B. Holmes ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 6%; will always be low owned since people hate him; only played here three times but finished 4th in 2016; he can win in strong fields as he showed at the Genesis and doesn’t need to be in form; can scramble decently (12th in the field) and at this ownership you don’t need to risk too much to be 2x or 3x the field

Fades

1) Charley Hoffman ($6,800) Projected Ownership: 17%; Mr. First Round Leader is going to be mega chalk after he came solo 2nd this past weekend and because everyone always sees him near the top of the leaderboard on Thursday at Augusta; has solid history here so he clearly knows how to play the course, but his stats are mediocre, and his ownership that far down seems like a trap

2) Kevin Kisner ($6,700) Projected Ownership: 13%; the other cheap chalk here is Kisner who completely masked his finish last year by gaining the most strokes in the field putting (over 9) despite not doing very much in any other category; he’s in good form but has never finished better than 28th here and after seeing Match Play, he will be way too chalky

Favorite Pivot

Aaron Wise ($6,600) Projected Ownership: 3%; definitely more of a punt than a core play but at that ownership I will take a shot on an elite driver of the ball on a course where SG: OTT is more important historically than SG: APP; wise hasn’t played too hot this year and is a debutant but I will take a shot and put him in maybe 10% of lineups, be 3x the field, and hope he can ride his driver to a Top 30 or better

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Paul Casey

2) Hideki Matsuyama

3) Matt Kuchar

4 Sergio Garcia

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 30% Course History, and 5% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Rory McIlroy
  2. Dustin Johnson
  3. Paul Casey
  4. Hideki Matsuyama
  5. Justin Rose
  6. Adam Scott
  7. Jason Day
  8. Bubba Watson
  9. Jon Rahm
  10. Ian Poulter
  11. Sergio Garcia
  12. Tiger Woods
  13. Tommy Fleetwood
  14. Justin Thomas
  15. Matt Kuchar
  16. Rickie Fowler
  17. Francesco Molinari
  18. Louis Oosthuizen
  19. Rafa Cabrera Bello
  20. Brandt Snedeker

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Outrights/Value Bets:

Brandt Snedeker: 125/1

Ian Poulter: 80/1

Brandt Snedeker Top 20: +250

Keith Mitchell Top 20: +450

Matt Kuchar Top 20: +125

Sergio Garcia Top 20: +140

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Rory/DJ/Rose/Tiger/Rickie/Kuchar/Fleetwood/Hideki

Possible Pivots:

Leishman

Poulter

Xander

Webb

Brooks

Follow me on Twitter @sscherman and follow @AmateurHour_Pod too for picks, podcasts with FIRE guests, and weekly picks to win!!

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