2019 Valero DK Picks/Betting/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Two weeks removed from the Valspar and two weeks removed from me being up 4 figures going into Sunday and needing Dustin Johnson of all people to shoot a few under par and maybe if I’m lucky, win or come runner up… well, instead he went birdie-less and finished T6 essentially putting me barely past breakeven and having me shaking my head. Not sure anyone could have predicted that performance and I continue to run bad with my core guys either having disastrous putting weeks, making 1 big number, or not making a birdie when you’re the best player in the world. The match play last week was a fun one and I would recommend all DFS players to participate next year as it’s easily the biggest advantage of the year since people don’t take the time to properly hand-construct lineups to not conflict with each other or look ahead in the bracket to have the most possible points when it comes to the Final 8/Final 4. A good tournament in which I finally had a Top 5 OAD finish (Molinari) and hats off to Kisner who seems to be an absolute match play savage. This week is the Valero and due to schedule changes and being the week before the best sporting event of the year, this field blows. ONWARDS.

Course and Weather Notes: Much like Valspar, TPC Antonio is a very difficult course with the cutline being well over par the last several years (including +7 in the wind-stricken 2015 edition) and a rare case in which players don’t eat up the Par 5s. In fact, the Par 5 BoB rate is only 28.8%, compared to the normal well over 40% Par 5 BoB rate on TOUR. Also similar to the Valspar, this course becomes brutal with wind and while we normally get a lot when this tournament is later in the year, as of now (Tuesday afternoon), there doesn’t appear to be a ton of wind… monitor that. Players need to be able to once again putt on Bermuda greens, hit fairways as the hit rate is only about 56% compared to near 65% as the TOUR average, and scramble well. Look for strong long iron players and guys who avoid the big numbers.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: Par 5s
  • BoB Gained
  • Fairways Gained
  • GIRs Gained
  • Scrambling

Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):

9K and Above:

Jordan Spieth ($10,300): Yikes to this one. Plugging my nose and hoping Jordan fines SOMETHING this week. I have him projected for sub 7% ownership so while this section is normally “core” plays for me, I expect to play around 15% exposure and be at least double or triple the field. Spieth started to strike the ball better at match play yet continues to agonize over the 3-4-foot par putts. He hasn’t played here since 2015, but that year he did finish 2nd after finishing 10th in 2014, if you’re a course history person. Stats? He sucks. His only redeeming stat right now is BoB, which he ranks 32nd in the field. Maybe with Augusta looming, Jordan finds something this week?

Sungjae Im ($10,100): Coming into Valero, Im ranks #1 in my recent form model as he continues to post strong results while struggling to score on the weekend rounds. Needing a win to get into the Masters field, Im will surely be chalky but chalk that I’ll eat as he ranks 4th in SG: BS, 4th in SG: Par 5s, 2nd in BoB, and 15th in the SG: APP Blend. This course has bred a lot of first-time winners and as long as Im can have an above average putting week, I think we see him near the top yet again. 50% exposure.

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Jhonattan Vegas ($8,700): Now here’s a name I wasn’t expecting to find #5 in my overall model. Vegas seems overpriced at first glance but here are some of his stat ranks for the week: 11th in SG: BS, 5th in SG: Par 5s, 5th in GIRs Gained, and 5th in Bogey Avoidance. He hasn’t lit this course up over the last 5 years (3 MCs) but coming in here he has made his last 4 cuts, including a 3rd at the PLAYERS along with 3 other Top 26 or better finishes. A win gets him into the Masters and I think he’ll be laser-focused. I will target 30-40% exposure.

Luke List ($8,000): The DFS darling himself, List seems quite underpriced for this field. He ranks 3rd in SG: BS, 13th in SG: APP Blend, 1st in SG: Par 5s, 3rd in BoB, and 12th in GIRs Gained. List has the tendency to make some big numbers and as we all know… his putting is horrific. For what it’s worth, he loses strokes on every putting surface; however, he loses the LEAST on Bermuda. Yay? If the wind picks up, List is an excellent wind player and after a less than stellar year thus far, maybe he finally has that above average putting week and gets the last spot in the Masters field.

***Other guys I like in this range: Sung Kang, Joel Dahmen, Scott Stallings, Bud Cauley, Chris Stroud, Nick Taylor, Matt Jones, Chesson Hadley ***

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

D.J. Trahan ($6,700): I really like this guy and while he hasn’t competed in many tournaments this year, and not many of them strong fields he makes a ton of birdies and racks up DK Points. He ranks 3rd in SG: Par 5s, 10th in BoB, 17th in SG: BS, 21st in the SG: APP Blend, and 8th in Bogey Avoidance. He’s coming off a 10th place finish this past week in the opposite field event in the Dominican Republic and I think at this price, you can do much, much worse. I will target 15-20% exposure.

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Luke List

2) Joel Dahmen

3) Sungjae Im

4 Nick Taylor

 

Fades for Me

Jim Furyk: Well, Jim continues to play hot fire and his price continues to go up on DK; good for him but I’m going to keep fading him at that price and most likely keep losing money

Tony Finau: Already into Augusta, doesn’t have the usual form, and an awful Bermuda grass putter

Matt Kuchar: Not sure why he’s playing but he’s already in the Masters and just played 7 rounds over the last 5 days… I see some serious fatigue coming

Billy Horschel: Misses a ton of fairways, doesn’t score well on Par 5s, and is already qualified for Augusta

Martin Laird: Great course history but not much else has gone right over the last several months

Kyle Stanley: Very cheap in this field for his OWGR but he’s been horrific, his putting sucks, and he’s already in the Masters anyway

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Jim Furyk (wow)
  2. Jason Kokrak
  3. Sungjae Im
  4. Matt Kuchar
  5. Jhonattan Vegas
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Sung Kang
  8. Joost Luiten
  9. Lucas Glover
  10. Byeong Hun An

Higher Priced Chalk

  • Jason Kokrak – 23%
  • Tony Finau – 20%
  • Byeong Hun An – 18%
  • Sungjae Im – 17%
  • Jim Furyk– 16%

Lower Priced Chalk

  • Nick Taylor – 12%
  • Trey Mullinax – 11%

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Luke List: 40/1

Nick Taylor: 80/1

Matt Jones: 110/1

Carlos Ortiz Top 20: 7/1

Scott Stallings Top 20: 4/1

Matt Jones Top 20: 3.5/1

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Horschel, Finau, Furyk, Kuchar, Spieth, Im, Kokrak, Bjerrehaard

Possible Pivots:

Vegas

Ancer

List

Hun An

 

Follow me on Twitter @sscherman and follow @AmateurHour_Pod too for picks, podcasts with FIRE guests, and weekly picks to win!!

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