2019 Valspar DK Picks/Betting/OAD

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Well I was feeling really good going into The PLAYERS as I liked all my lineup builds and felt uber confident in my cash game lineup with what I thought had tons of “safe plays” in there… nope. I learned an important lesson this past week and that is don’t fade your number 1 rank in your model (Rory McIlroy). I also learned another important lesson, and it’s one I’ve even preached to many people and written about and that’s “not all chalk is bad chalk.” My cash game lineup had Casey and RCB… the correct cash game build was Fleetwood/Poulter and I thought Fleetwood would be mega-chalk and therefore made an ownership fade. Stupid. Other disasters included going heavily in on Xander only to have him give a horrific putting performance and miss the cut by one. I’m not thrilled that I continue to heavily roster guys on their worst putting weeks (i.e. Hideki 2 weeks ago, Xander this past week) as they have TORCHED me in both One and Done and in DFS. Hats off to Rory who was able to avoid the massive numbers and outlast some very strong contenders on Sunday to capture his first PLAYERS title and continue his hot fire form. I think an important thing to keep in mind over the next several weeks, including here at Valspar, is to not let that sour taste of a guy, or in my case, about 8 guys, affect your judgement of their play moving forward as most are capable of an easy bounce back and it’s a great opportunity to get an elite play at significantly lower ownership. Onto the SNAKE PIT.

Course and Weather Notes: Consistently one of the harder courses on TOUR, Innisbrook presents a very tough test in which the winning score should be around high single digits (most years) under par as opposed to the -15 to -20 under par that we’ve grown accustomed. Par is your friend here and the course layout has the infamous “Snake Pit,” which is the last 3 holes of the course in which #16 is the hardest ranked hole (475 yard par 4) that always plays over par. A very rare 5 par 3 course, players will need to be locked in with their long irons, 175+ yard approaches, as the average driving distance here is one of the shortest on TOUR, due to doglegs, hazards, etc. Lastly, although Par 5 scoring is always important, bogey avoidance, even on those Par 5s, will be key as they aren’t the “auto-birdies” like most courses but have trouble lurking all around with big numbers possible at every turn.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: Par 5s
  • SG: Par 3s
  • SG: Short Game
  • GIRs Gained
  • Fairways Gained

Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):

9K and Above:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500): Far and away the class of the field in my opinion there isn’t much to say about DJ that people don’t know. He ranks 1st in my stats model, 1st in my recent form model, and 1st in DK Scoring over the last 5 events… I will have no less than 80% exposure and may very well go a full 100% if the build works.

Paul Casey ($9,700): Going back to Casey this week after a quad bogey on #17 in round 1 last week sunk any hope of him making the cut. Casey ranks 5th in my overall model this week as an elite ball striker, ranking 9th in the field, 12th in the field in the SG: APP Blend, and 8th in GIRs Gained. Further, he won this tournament last year after a several year drought and will be looking to bounce back from an incredibly poor effort at the PLAYERS. I will target 40-50% exposure.

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Kevin Kisner ($8,500): A top ball striker in the field and someone who can really get a spark out of nowhere (was in contention for 3 rounds at the API), I think Kisner could possibly win this tournament. Hits a ton of fairways and greens, avoids big numbers, and with a hot putter he can make just as many putts as the top players in the world (API, British Open last year, etc.). Kisner is coming off of 7+ made cuts in a row including a 28th place finish or better in the last 5. Although those results don’t pop off the page, he has been in contention more than once but has suffered a cold putter or a few blemishes on the weekend rounds. I will use Kisner as an elite GPP player and target around 30-40%.

Brandt Snedeker ($8,400): Sitting right next to Kisner in both DK pricing and OWGR, Snedeker flashed some great form last week, finishing T5 along with DJ. Sneds gets it done differently than Kiz as he has an immaculate short game (2nd in the field in SG: Short Game) and is able to score well on Par 5s despite not being the longest hitter. Sned hasn’t had incredible form to start the year but he’s made his last 6 starts at Valspar, clearly showing his ability to avoid the danger here, and I like him to build off his Top 5 PLAYERS finish and contend here as well. 30-40%.

***Other guys I like in this range: Russell Knox, Sung Kang, Roger Sloan, Chez Reavie, Roberto Castro ***

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($6,700): Unknown to most in the industry, this guy has been FIRE with his irons over his last 3 tournaments, gaining 6.9 SG: APP at Genesis (finished 25th) and 5.4 SG: APP at the Honda, in which he finished 7th (Puerto Rico Open doesn’t have shot link). Lee hasn’t been around that long but has showcased a liking for Bermuda grass putting as well as his prowess for hitting a ton of greens and elite ball striking. I will probably be too overweight, but I like this kid’s game a ton and think he continues his hot form. 15-20% exposure.

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Dustin Johnson

2) Paul Casey

3) Russell Knox

4 Trey Mullinax

 Fades for Me

Jim Furyk: Playing unbelievable and that shot on #18 last week was awesome but there’s no way I’m paying 9K+ for Furyk, especially when he could be 15-20% owned

Bubba Watson: Rates out decently well but with the rough supposedly up and a lot of hazards, I think there’s too much opportunity for Bubba to make big numbers

Patrick Reed: Has elite course history but his game has looked way off for many weeks… will be chalk

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

  1. Dustin Johnson
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Jim Furyk
  4. Sergio Garcia
  5. Jason Day
  6. Paul Casey
  7. Lucas Glover
  8. Jason Kokrak
  9. Gary Woodland
  10. Keegan Bradley

Higher Priced Chalk

  • Dustin Johnson – 21%
  • Sergio Garcia – 19%
  • Paul Casey – 18%
  • Jason Kokrak – 17%
  • Russell Knox– 14%

Lower Priced Chalk

  • Sungjae Im – 15%
  • Sung Kang – 10%

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets:

Brandt Snedeker: 55/1

Kevin Kisner: 50/1

Carlos Ortiz Top 20: 7/1

Vaughn Taylor Top 20: 6/1

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Reed, Sergio, DJ, Webb, Furyk, Snedeker, Casey

Possible Pivots:

Kisner

RCB

Woodland

Knox

Follow me on Twitter @sscherman and follow @AmateurHour_Pod too for picks, podcasts with FIRE guests, and weekly picks to win!!

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