All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
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A very mixed to negative week for me, at least financially, at the WGC Mexico as I had way too much Leishman who lost over NINE STROKES PUTTING over 4 days, Grillo didn’t play very well, and although I had some DJ exposure, I had no Casey or Rory. This felt like one of those weeks where I had exposure to a lot of top finishers but had them in the wrong places (i.e. Poulter/Sergio/DJ with Leishman and Grillo, etc.), as Casey continues to be a thorn in my side as he’s someone I will never get right. Some strong charges by Kiradech and Cantlay also sunk many of my teams; however, all in all, it wasn’t ALL bad and although a dramatic Sunday is always preferred, it’s incredible to watch DJ when he’s in control just hit putt after putt and never take his foot off the gas. Some good calls ended up being JT (thank you for that Sunday run), Sergio, Poulter, and Reed (for the most part), while the fades of Fleetwood, Finau, Phil, and Bryson ended up working out well. Too much on Leishman, Chez, and Grillo; however, never gave much of a chance at a massive ROI and with that we shall move onto the unfortunately bad field for the Honda Classic at PGA National.
Course and Weather Notes: As of this writing (Tuesday afternoon), there is shockingly almost no wind expected until around Saturday or maybe not till Sunday, which is unlike the last several years. This course consistently plays as one of the most difficult on tour as it’s home to the “Bear Trap,” holes 15-17, which yield tons of bogeys or worse, while the rest of the course has 80+ bunkers, water on 15 or 16 of the holes, and thick rough. I would pay close attention to the wind on Wednesday to try and find a course draw, if there is one, since this course can get nasty with a little wind.
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: BS
- SG: APP Blend (150-200 yards)
- Driving Blend (DD/Fways Gained/Accuracy)
- SG: Par 5s
- GIRs Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- BoB/Opportunities Gained
- Putting Blend (<15 feet; Bermuda emphasis)
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Justin Thomas ($11,900): Well it’s another week where JT is playing, he’s far and away the #1 in my overall model, and another week where I can’t get myself to fade. I don’t think JT would even be playing if he wasn’t the defending champion but here is coming off of a blistering 62 on Sunday to get himself in the Top 10, having now finished Top 16 in 6 straight tournaments, including 3 Top 3s and a Top 10. Truly unbelievable form and although there could be some fatigue, we know how good he is in every stat category and I’m too scared to fade… I will target 40-50% exposure.
Gary Woodland ($9,800): If you take away his Sony Open performance where he was coming off of a tough loss and the death of his grandmother, Woodland has been a stud so far this season. He has 4 Top 10s, finished 17th last week, and he has quickly become known as a “less than driver” specialist, which is the exact course fit we want this week. Woodland ranks 3rd in the Driving blend, 10th in GIRs Gained, 10th in BoB/Opps. Gained, and 5th in SG: BS, and even though he’ll be chalky, I think he’s well worth it. I think he’ll end up being owned at around 17-20%, so I will target 40-50% exposure.
Others plays in this range: Cam Smith, Webb Simpson
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
Harold Varner III ($7,300): HV3 can be somewhat volatile but I still think he’s primed for a big year and he’s shown some promise to start 2019 with a 10th, 18th, 16th and 2 MCs in his last 5 starts. Stats wise, he ranks 4th in GIRs Gained, 16th in BoB/Opps. Gained, 19th in SG: BS, 30th in Scrambling, and 27th in the Driving Blend. This seems like a very cheap price for him and someone whom I can see ending up in my core, but I will target more like 25% for now.
Jason Kokrak ($7,300): A couple weeks ago I feel like Snortin the Kokrak was very chalky but after middling finishes and a few weeks off, I don’t hear near the same buzz. Kokrak is a great stats guy that most certainly doesn’t always pan out as he ranks 4th in SG: BS, 2nd in the SG: APP Blend, 12th in GIRs Gained, 5th in BoB/Opps. Gained, and 12th in the Driving Blend. He hasn’t torn this course up and his putting can always be a concern, but I feel good targeting around 25%.
Trey Mullinax ($7,100): Here is a guy who I think used to be known as more volatile in that he would tear a course up and then miss 3 cuts and so on; however, in 2019, Mullinax has been solidly consistent. He has made 5 straight cuts, including Top 25s in each of his last 3, and he ranks very highly in some of the key stats: 8th in SG: BS, 9th in SG: Par 5s, 21st in Bogey Avoidance, 21st in the SG: APP Blend, and 24th in BoB/Opps. Gained. Mullinax has been a great DK Scorer as of late as well so if he can keep his driving under control, I like him as another dominant player. I will take some risk and probably target around 30-40% to be significantly overweight the field in hopes that Mullinax shows up.
***Other guys I like in this range: Kizzire, Sungjae Im, Sung Kang, Talor Gooch, Grillo, Knox***
Low Tier Options (Under 7K):
Kevin Streelman ($6,700): A favorite of mine on TOUR, Streelman really lines up for the stats I’m looking at this week, as he ranks 21st in SG: BS, 15th in GIRs Gained, 6th in the Driving Blend, and he is also coming off of a 7th place finish at the Pebble Beach Pro Am. Unfortunately, Streelman hasn’t played here in several years, so not much course history to go off of, but at this price, we don’t need a dominant Top 5 finish but rather a cut-maker with great upside. I will target 10-15% exposure.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays (FULL DISCLOSURE: I don’t normally play cash in no-cut events)
1) Gary Woodland
2) Webb Simpson
3) Russell Knox
4) Stewart Cink
Fades for Me
Daniel Berger: Going to get some buzz since he came runner up both last week and here in 2015 but we can’t forget he’s still coming off an injury and has not shown much form at all so far this year
Kiradech Aphibarnrat: I could see 10+% ownership after people saw him charge up last week but his only finish is a 68th here last year and his approach game has been rather sporadic
Zach Johnson: Not really in form and hasn’t played in a couple weeks; no impressive finishes here
Michael Thompson: Was on him a few weeks ago and worked out VERY well but wow 8k for this guy and he’s going to be probably 17 or even 20+% owned??? No thanks despite his high rank in my model
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events
- Justin Thomas
- Gary Woodland
- Michael Thompson (goodness)
- Rickie Fowler
- Adam Scott
- Sergio Garcia
- Russell Knox
- Webb Simpson
- Cameron Smith
- Scott Piercy
Higher Priced Chalk
- Gary Woodland – 20%
- Webb Simpson – 18%
- Justin Thomas – 18%
- Luke List – 16%
- Adam Scott – 15%
Lower Priced Chalk
- Michael Thompson – 18%
- Russell Knox – 17%
- Scott Piercy – 15%
- Jim Furyk – 12%
- Stewart Cink – 12%
Betting/One and Done
Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!
Harold Varner III: 125/1
Sungjae Im: 80/1
One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options
Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Scott, Webb, Sergio, Woodland, List, Horschel
Scott Piercy (yikes, there’s some risk)
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