All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Go follow BigBucksNoWhammie (@BPSnow11 on Twitter) for an AMAZING course preview and please check out my 2018 recap and 2019 preview on amateurhourgolfpod.com for most exciting moments from last season, young guys I’m excited for in 2019, early Major predictions, and much more!

The Genesis Open will always be one of the better tournaments of the year, at least skill wise, as many want to be a part of a fantastic course, a great location, and involved with a tournament that is organized by Tiger Woods; however, this year it fell like one of the most marred I’ve seen in quite some time. Rather than see solid coverage and exciting shots and a good finish, we find ourselves discussing our big of an issue slow play is, how the committee handled the weather issues (not well in my opinion), and talking about a popular player’s “collapse,” if we want to call it that. It’s already been discussed as nauseum by many Twitter personalities and others in the golf industry, but as Adam Scott said best, “nothing is going to change until sponsors and officials actually do something about it and give out penalties for slow play.” Personally, I think it is a serious problem in a sport where they’re trying to entice young generation interest and when they no longer have guys like Tiger or Phil headlining tournaments and automatically drawing fans, they can’t just accept 6-hour final rounds. Further, as address by Pat Mayo, how the committee dealt with 3^rd and 4^th round pairings and timings seemed way off to me as they felt the need for everyone to finish every single round despite many guys safely inside the cut, which could have lead to a much better structured 4^th round and had guys playing a normal 18, or 20 holes at most, rather than 30 or more. I’m not a J.B. Holmes fan in the slightest, but good for him getting his first win in 4 years and beating out an elite field. Onto the first WGC event of 2019.

Course and Weather Notes: This is the 3^rd installment of the tournament at this course, Club de Chapultepec, and we’ve seen the elite rise to the top over the two previous years. This course may seem long, but once adjusted for altitude, it is actually one of the shortest courses on TOUR. Below I did a calculation to take around 10% off the holes as listed to give some more “true” yardages to help keen in on key stats.

Hole	Par	Length	Rank	Avg. Strokes	BoB%	O/U Par
1	4	284	17	3.68	42.00%	-0.320
2	4	348	14	3.90	24.10%	-0.100
3	3	167	9	3.05	15.60%	0.050
4	4	455	8	4.08	11.40%	0.080
5	4	401	5	4.09	15.20%	0.090
6	5	563	15	4.84	33.70%	-0.160
7	3	212	2	3.25	7.90%	0.250
8	4	473	1	4.32	7.00%	0.320
9	4	344	12	3.95	19.30%	-0.050
10	4	405	4	4.11	13.80%	0.110
11	5	560	16	4.73	39.50%	-0.270
12	4	365	13	3.95	25.20%	-0.050
13	3	203	3	3.15	6.60%	0.150
14	4	447	6	4.08	12.70%	0.080
15	5	518	18	4.45	55.80%	-0.550
16	4	363	10	4.03	17.20%	0.030
17	3	155	7	3.08	11.60%	0.080
18	4	349	11	3.97	19.10%	-0.030
	71	6,611		70.71

As we can see, the Par 5s are easily reachable, there are 4-5 holes that play 350 yards or less, and we need to target elite wedge players who can keep it in the fairway (fairways only average around 27 yards of width).

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

• SG: BS
• SG: APP Blend (<150 yards)
• Good Drives Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• GIRs Gained
• Fairways Gained
• BoB/Opportunities Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• Putting (emphasis on Poa and <15 feet)
• Scrambling

Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):

9K and Above:

Justin Thomas ($11,800): Far and away the number one player in my overall model, JT should once again contend here as he comes in with elite form, solid course history, and near perfect stats. 1^st in SG: BS, 1^st in the SG: APP blend, 3^rd in SG: Par 5s, 1^st in BoB/Opps. Gained, and coming off a 2^nd, 3^rd, 16^th, 3^rd, and 12^th in his last 5 starts. Oh yeah and he almost won here last year, but ultimately finished 2^nd to Phil in a playoff. Couldn’t see any reason to not play JT during this stretch… 50-75% exposure minimum.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000): Similar theme here this week as Hideki and JT are two guys I wrote up last week as well but I don’t see why not go back to these two studs. Hideki is ranked 2^nd, right behind JT, in SG: BS, 4^th in the SG: APP blend, 14^th in Bogey Avoidance, 4^th in GIRs Gained, 10^th in Good Drives Gained, and 6^th in Scrambling. We all are waiting for a superb putting week from Hideki and if he can do just that, it’s not far fetched to see him do what he’s done in previous WGCs and blow the field away. I will look for 50-75% exposure.

Others plays in this range: Rickie Fowler

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Marc Leishman ($8,700): Not someone I normally play, but Leishman has a 4^th, 43^rd, 3^rd, 4^th, and 2^nd in his last 5 starts… whoa. When you think of an ideal DK scorer you want a guy who makes birdies in bunches, can make bounce-back numbers, and has the ability to shoot a 63 or 64 on the weekend; that is Leishman who has average about 106 DK Points per tournament in his last 10 starts. Stats wise, Leishman shows elite form with the putter, ranking 6^th in the SG: Putting blend and also ranks 9^th in BoB/Opps. Gained, 14^th in Bogey Avoidance, 18^th in SG: Par 5s, and 13^th in Scrambling. 30-50%.

Sergio Garcia ($8,000): Woof. Talk about a guy I never play, it was scary to see Sergio rate out well this week, but alas, we can’t be bias against good plays and Sergio has shown strong performances here the last 2 years with a 12^th in 2017 and a 7^th last year. Always an elite ball striker his whole career, if Sergio can show some signs of putting ability he should be able to follow up with another solid showing as he ranks 23^rd in the SG: APP blend, 15^th in SG: BS, and 15^th in GIRs Gained. Since everyone hates his guts, his ownership should be quite low and I can easily see another Top 10 or Top 5 performance. 25-30%.

Gary Woodland ($7,900): I would argue very quietly, Woodland has 4 Top 10 finishes in his last 5 events, including a near win at the ToC which was halted by an all-world 4^th round from Xander Schauffele. Woodland hasn’t torn this event up but his stats show that he definitely possesses all the facets to as he ranks 3^rd in SG: BS, 2^nd in SG: Par 5s, 14^th in GIRs Gained, 14^th in Good Drives Gained, and 10^th in Fairways Gained. If he can avoid the big numbers around the greens and putt average or slightly above average, I see another solid DK scoring performance out of him. 25-30%.

***Other guys I like in this range: Webb Simpson, Cam Smith, Charles Howell III, Ian Poulter, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar***

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Emiliano Grillo ($6,900): I understand this is a very strong field, but wow this is a low price for Grillo. He ranks 4^th in the SG: APP blend, 12^th in SG: BS, and Top 20 in GIRs Gained, BoB/Opps. Gained, Good Drives, and Fairways Gained. He hasn’t had incredible finishes as his last 3 starts have resulted in 33^rd, 52^nd, and 22^nd; however, I love how he’s striking the ball as he just needs to iron out the putter. I’m not sure how much buzz he’ll garner through the week, but I will probably target 15-20% exposure.

My Favorite Cash Game Plays (FULL DISCLOSURE: I don’t normally play cash in no-cut events)

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Matt Kuchar

3) Sergio Garcia

4) Gary Woodland

Fades for Me

Phil Mickelson: Will get some buzz due to the win here last year but if he doesn’t get a free drop from every single hazard like last year he could struggle!

Tommy Fleetwood: Not fading due his poorer finish this past week but he’ll gain mega-chalk and I think it’s a fine hedge to go away from potential 20-25% ownership

Matthew Fitzpatrick: Will get ownership as a guy who’s played well at the Omega Masters which is also at altitude although I think he sucks and will therefore full fade

Jon Rahm: Have faded him the last 5/6 weeks and he’s finished Top 10 every time… that’s amazing and I might as well submit myself to more pain and fade another time!

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Justin Thomas
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Jon Rahm
4. Matt Kuchar
5. Gary Woodland
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Dustin Johnson
8. Paul Casey
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Rickie Fowler

Predicted Chalk

• Justin Thomas – 22%
• Tommy Fleetwood – 20%
• Hideki Matsuyama – 18%
• Rory McIlroy – 17%
• Dustin Johnson – 15%

Betting/One and Done

Wanted to add to this article to provide possible betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets:

Sergio Garcia: 40/1
Pros: Great ball striker, can get hot, scores well on Par 5s

Cons: Awful putter, is an ass and destroys greens

Cameron Smith: 66/1

Pros: Strong birdie maker, great approach player, good scrambler

Cons: Weak putter and can miss big off the tee

Matt Kuchar Top 20: +150

Emiliano Grillo Top 10: +650

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Rory, JT, Rahm, DJ, Hideki, Fleetwood

Possible Pivots:

Cam Smith: People will be off after a lackluster performance and I think this course sets up well

Rickie Fowler: I think many have either already used him or are waiting to use him at a major; his course form is fine but not elite

Webb Simpson: Sets up great but hasn’t played a ton so people don’t see much form; he also has only finished a lackluster 37^th here last year

 

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