All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
Go follow BigBucksNoWhammie (@BPSnow11 on Twitter) for an AMAZING course preview and please check out my 2018 recap and 2019 preview on amateurhourgolfpod.com for most exciting moments from last season, young guys I’m excited for in 2019, early Major predictions, and much more!
Well if anyone reading this had Adam Long in their DFS player pool, had an outright, had a top 5, top 10, top 20, or had ever heard of him, please slide into my DMs and let me know your process because that is quite something. In all seriousness, hats off to the young kid as he hung tough with the likes of Adam Hadwin and Phil and then sunk a 13-foot birdie putt to finish it on the 72nd hole. What an amazing scene and finish to the tournament and that will change Long’s life. My hope of some solid profit and/or breaking even was dashed pretty early on as a few guys in my core either blew up or were never in the tournament to begin with, such as Joaquin Niemann who lost just a staggering amount of strokes putting (-4.9 on the Stadium course, which is the only ShotLink data plus I would presume another 4-5 strokes on the other 2 courses) and I just have nothing to say about that. I also had a lot of Ryan Palmer who finished spectacularly double, double on Saturday to take himself clear out of it. One of the only positives was that my heaviest exposure ended up being on Rahm who had a chance to make a charge on Sunday but he ended up with a 6th place finish, while most of my other core ended up in the 15th-30th place range… not the best week and let’s move that hell on to the STACKED Farmers Insurance field! Oh yeah… Tiger is BACK.
For an in-depth course preview, go check out Bucks’ preview on Gups Corner (@GupsCorner on Twitter).
Course Draw: Just an interesting note, via @thefantasygrind on Twitter, that the last 8 winners have all started on the North Course and per Mike Miller (@smartgolfbets) on Twitter, plays tend to fare better who start on the North AND get the Poa greens in the morning!
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: BS
- SG: APP Blend (Mix of Approach, 125-150, and 200+)
- Driving Blend (Mix of OTT, Fairways Gained, and Driving Distance)
- BoB Gained/Opps Gained
- SG: Par 4s 450-500
- SG: Par 5s
- Bogey Avoidance
- DK Points
- SG: Putting (emphasis on Poa and inside 10 feet)
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Marc Leishman ($9,700): I normally don’t roster Leishman since he’s a popular DFS play and I like to go contrarian but give me a guy who’s last 3 starts are 3rd, 4th, and 2nd on top of a course history that includes 10 straight starts with an average of an 18th place finish, yeah, I’ll have a ton of exposure. Leishman has finished runner up here twice, an 8th, 9th, and only 2 MC and has started his season off mighty strong. Stats wise, Leishman ranks 8th in my model on Par 4s from 450-500, 16th in Putting inside 10 feet, 6th in DK Points, and 5th in SG: Par 5s. I think Leishman will need to be one of my higher owned guys since I expect ownership of 17-20% so I’ll look to hopefully at least double the field at 50% and maybe go up to 70%.
Gary Woodland ($9,000): A perfect fit for this course, I expect Woodland to contend here and his past history here would agree with me: 3 straight Top 20s at this event and a 10th in 2014 shows that he knows how to compete at Torrey. Throwing out his Sony Open performance (had just learned of his grandmother’s passing and it was an MDF after the 3rd round), Woodland finished runner up at Tournament of Champions, an 8th before that, and a 10th back at the OHL in the Fall. Per his stats, Woodland ranks 6th in SG: BS, 8th in the SG: APP blend, 7th in SG: Par 5s, and 21st in my Driving blend. I love Woodland this week and he, along with Leishman, should be one of my 50+% exposure guys.
Tiger Woods ($10,500): Of course play him. He’s won here 8 fucking times.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
Emiliano Grillo ($8,100): This is one of my favorite plays on the board and could end up being a higher owned player than I expect, but I think Grillo’s course fit here is fantastic. He’s played here 3 times, improving each year (MC > 33rd > 12th), and has the long-iron and Driving game to contend. He hasn’t played a ton recently but for what it’s worth, his last 3 starts are a 22nd, 8th, and 15th. He ranks 21st in Par 4s 450-500, 19th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in DK Points, 7th in SG: Par 5s, and 13th in BoB Gained/Opps Gained. Grillo has a good side of the draw (starts on the North course) and I love him this week. I’ll look for 30-50% exposure.
Harold Varner III ($7,200): Varner was in my core last week and I’m going to go there again after another solid performance at his price. His last 5 starts: 18th, 16th, 23rd, 6th, and 15th which are not record breaking by any means but at this price, is perfectly fine. I think this should be a good fit for him as he ranks Top 40 in my Driving blend, 9th in SG: P inside 10 feet, 18th in Bogey Avoidance, and 25th in DK Points. If he can lock in his long irons and gain strokes on the Par 5s, I think we see a 6th straight Top 25 or better. I will target around 25% exposure here.
***Other guys I like in this range: Joaquin Niemann, Kevin Tway, Hudson Swafford, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, Cameron Smith***
Low Tier Options (Under 7K):
Chesson Hadley ($6,900): Here’s someone who had a disastrous 2018 season but who seems to be showing a little bit of form as of late. Hadley has missed his last 2 cuts but came top 10 at the OHL in the fall (7th) and has some stats that line up very well this week. Hadley ranks 34th in SG: Par 4s 450-500, 22nd in the SG: APP blend, and 31th in the Driving blend. At only $6,900, we’re not banking on a Top 10 (although that’d be great) but a cut maker who has some upside, which Hadley does. 10-15% exposure.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays
1) Tony Finau
2) Gary Woodland
3) Keith Mitchell
4) Emiliano Grillo
Fades for Me
Jason Day: Has 2 wins and a 2nd along with 2 MCs… very volatile and his driver has the tendency to go everywhere (100th in Driving blend) and he makes a ton of bogeys
J.J. Spaun: I expect him to be one of the highest owned 7K guys and he can struggle off the tee, struggles with putting inside 10 feet, and is only an average Ball Striker (61st in my model)
Jon Rahm: Mostly an ownership fade despite his massively high ranking in my model
Charles Howell III: I will most likely fade in GPPs but may have him in cash
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 10% Course History, and 5% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events
- Justin Rose
- Jon Rahm
- Gary Woodland
- Rickie Fowler
- Marc Leishman
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Charles Howell III
- Xander Schauffele
- Abraham Ancer
- Tony Finau – 22%
- Gary Woodland – 20%
- Tiger Woods – 17%
- Jon Rahm – 15%
- Marc Leishman – 15%
Betting/One and Done
Wanted to add to this article to provide possible betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!
Joaquin Niemann: 110/1
Pros: Great ball striker and should revert back to at least average putting
Cons: Hasn’t played here and can spray drives
Emiliano Grillo: 60/1
Pros: See above
Cons: Not the best scrambler if he misses the green; putting can be sporadic
Keith Mitchell: 160/1
Pros: Great ball striker and driver; strong long iron player
Cons: Can be abysmal with the putter
One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options
Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Leishman, CH3, Tiger, Rahm, Snedeker
Emiliano Grillo: Great course draw/see above for stats, form, and history.
Cameron Smith: Best course draw and excels with long irons/long Par 4s.
Rickie Fowler: Rare lower OAD ownership since he’s never played this course well and he has the best stats of anyone in the field.
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