DraftKings Week 13 NFL Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter/@OneWeekSeason on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 12 Quick Recap

I took a week off from writing last week and doing as much research as I usually do, which apparently, I should do more often as I had one of my biggest weeks ever in DFS as I cashed over 4 figures and if Mack hadn’t gone out with a concussion, I was in line for 5 figures easily… One of those solid weeks where I had a strong core, about 60% exposure to McCaffrey and only a few slight under performers at TE and the rest of my player pool smashing. Let’s look to continue it this week as we get 13 games on the main slate for the first time in a long time.

Cash Game Score: 185.38; good for cashing in 23 Double Ups (100%)

The Good

  1. Christian McCaffrey absolutely exploded as he exceeded 100 yards (bonus points) receiving, 100 yards rushing (bonus), 2 TDs and a plethora of catches to slam for 52.7 points… it was one of those weeks where to take down significant money you had to have him in GPP lineups
  2. Albeit helped by a 97-yard TD, this was a week where I thought WR/CB really would matter. JuJu would be lined up with Roby, who is awful, and I knew he could exploit that better than if he was matched up with Chris Harris. 40.9 DK Points and 5x value.
  3. I always talk about the importance of not overthinking things and that was the case this past week with a defense; the Ravens had a great matchup and while we never predict 2 defensive TDs, you knew they could generate pressure and turnovers and that’s what we got as they chalked up 18 DK Points and over 5x value.

The Bad

  1. I fell for the Kittle trap… saw 12 targets yet only mustered up 11 DK Points. On such a positive week it’s hard to find too much bad but Kittle definitely cost me some money.

Match Ups I Like This Week

Broncos at Bengals

As much as I still think the Broncos aren’t a good team and Case Keenum is terrible, the Bengals have a joke of a defense and should be giving up massive points here. The emergence of the efficient Phillip Lindsay combined with Emmanuel Sanders torching the secondary, Matt LaCosse hopefully being a GOAT and Courtland Sutton hoping to finally catch a TD, let’s do it. On the other side of the ball, everyone seems high on Boyd but with A.J. Green probably back, I see Chris Harris shutting him down mostly in the slot while A.J. Green should be able to roast Roby (assuming he’s healthy).

  • Broncos I Like: Lindsay (Cash/GPP), Sanders (Cash/GPP), Sutton (Cash/GPP), LaCosse (Cash), Broncos D (Cash/GPP)
  • Bengals I Like: A.J. Green (GPP), Boyd (RISKY GPP play), Uzomah (GPP flier)

Panthers at Buccaneers

This should be a chalky stack game but for good reason; everyone has been torching the TB defense all year, which should continue, and we have seen quite a hot streak of multi-TD games for Newton over the last 10 games or so. TB can’t stop pass catching RBs (cough, cough C Mac), and while the Panthers D is above average with Bradberry able to stop strong receivers, they are susceptible to big plays. One of, if not the highest, game total on the slate, this game should have shootout potential.

  • Panthers I Like: Cam (Cash/GPP), C Mac (Cash/GPP), D.J. Moore (GPP), Samuel (GPP), Olsen (GPP)
  • Buccaneers I Like: Jameis (Cash/GPP), Barber (GPP flier), Evans (GPP), DJAX (GPP), Godwin (Cash/GPP), Humphries (Cash/GPP)

 

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

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-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Jameis Winston vs. CAR ($6,000): As I just wrote above, with a bad defense behind him and having to keep pace with the Panthers, I think we should expect Jameis to be throwing the entire game. Carolina has given up the 2nd most points to QBs over the last month and Winston is averaging about 20 DK Points per game. He’s a lock and load.
  • Jared Goff vs. DET ($6,400): It’s a bit propped up by the shootout game against the Chiefs, but Goff is averaging 32.5 DK Points per game over the last month and is now facing a shell of a defense in Detroit. Goff has hit his DK value at about a 75% clip this season and is one of the more efficient QBs on the board. He’s likely to be my cash QB and my heaviest owned QB in GPPs.

GPP Running Backs

  • Christian McCaffrey vs. TB ($8,800): C Mac should absolutely be the highest owned RB this week and for good reason: he’s facing a miserable TB defense who can’t stop pass catching RBs. This is not chasing points like a lot of people do each week but rather just attacking yet another good matchup. C Mac is averaging 35.5 DK Points over his last 4 games, 7.5 targets a game, and 97% of his team’s rushing attempts. Last smash again.
  • Kareem Hunt vs. OAK ($7,800): Everyone knows that the Chiefs should hammer the Raiders and I like Hunt to be the main benefactor in a game where the Chiefs should have in hand in the 2nd half and Hunt is good for his usual 3-5 targets, 18-22 touches, and rack up points. I think Hunt should be above 8K, so I like attacking him as an underpriced guy who could end up being the highest scoring RB on the slate.
  • Phillip Lindsay vs. CIN ($5,400): The Bengals have been giving up around 40 DK Points per game to RBs… FORTY POINTS. Lindsay still can’t shake the touches being given to Freeman and Booker but he’s handling about 65% of the snaps and has shown that he is massively efficient with those touches. He’s broken for a 20+ yard run I believe in at least his last 4 games and overall averages about 5.8 yards per play. Lindsay is getting the 8th most RZ attempts out of all RBs and I think sets up in a smash spot this week.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Brandin Cooks vs. DET ($7,000): Cooks is my favorite WR on the slate this week as he’s averaging 26 DK Points over his last 4 games, about 23% of the team’s target share, including all the deep balls, and is facing one of the worst teams against WRs. He could see some of Darius Slay, but I see Slay lining up more often on Woods and/or Reynolds and I like Cooks to torch them deep all game.
  • Tyler Lockett vs. SF ($5,800): I feel like Lockett has become Wilson’s favorite target this year, maybe David Moore over the last few weeks, as Lockett can burn any secondary down the field and is a reliable pass catcher for Wilson. Lockett is averaging around 18.7 DK Points over his last 4 and getting about 20% of the team’s target share. Lockett is my 5th ranked WR in my model and one that I will see to have large exposure in GPPs.
  • Adam Thielen vs. NE ($8,000): Everyone knows how dominant Thielen has been this year and I see that continuing against a very below average NE defense. Belichick’s method has normally been taking away a team’s core play and I think that’s going to be Gillmore shadowing Diggs this week… Now that could always change and maybe he tries to take away Thielen but I see Thielen thriving in the slot and racking up all sorts of yards against the Patriots slow LBs.

GPP Tight Ends

  • David Njoku vs. HOU ($4,300): This seems like a good pivot off of Ebron who I predict will approach 25% or more ownership to a guy who continues to see strong volume from Baker and a Texans D that can’t cover TEs that well. After all, they just let Jonnu Smith go off for 60+ yards and a TD. Njoku is seeing around 5-6 targets a game and for this price, if he catches a TD and sees those targets, he could hit 4x value easily.
  • Matt LaCosse vs. CIN ($2,500): This is more of a cash game play as he will be mega-chalk at his price and everyone talking him up but I would play either him or Ebron in cash games and move on… nuff said.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Broncos vs. CIN ($2,700): Denver D has continued to improve the last several weeks and with a depleted CIN O-Line and a young QB at the helm… the Broncos should be able to generate all sorts of pressure, create turnovers, and get several sacks. I’m not sure why they’re this cheap and less than defenses like the Seahawks or Packers, but this seems like a lock and load GPP defense that I would also be willing to use in cash games.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Jared Goff vs. DET ($6,400)
  • Cam Newton vs. TB ($6,600)

Cash Running Backs

  • Christian McCaffrey vs. TB ($8,800)
  • Saquon Barkley vs. CHI ($7,900)
  • Kareem Hunt vs. OAK ($7,800)
  • Phillip Lindsay vs. CIN ($5,400)
  • Carlos Hyde vs. IND ($3,300)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Brandin Cooks vs. DET ($7,000)
  • Emmanuel Sanders vs. CIN ($6,300)
  • Josh Reynolds vs. DET ($4,900)
  • Bruce Ellington vs. LAR ($3,500)
  • Corey Davis vs. NYJ ($5,500)

Cash Tight Ends

  • Eric Ebron vs. JAC ($4,200)
  • Matt LaCosse vs. CIN ($2,500)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Broncos vs. CIN ($2,700)
  • Chiefs vs. OAK ($2,500)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Cam Newton 15%
  • Patrick Mahomes 13%

Running Back

  • Christian McCaffrey 30%
  • Todd Gurley 23%
  • Kareem Hunt 18%
  • Saquon Barkley 17%
  • Aaron Jones 15%

Wide Receiver

  • Tyreek Hill 20%
  • Kenny Golladay 17%
  • Robert Woods 15%
  • Adam Thielen 15%
  • J. Moore 12%

Tight End

  • Eric Ebron 20%
  • Travis Kelce 14%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Chiefs 12%
  • Broncos 8%

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