NFL Week 11 DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter/@OneWeekSeason on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 10 Quick Recap

Week 10 was a weird one as I was having a fantastic week in both cash and GPPs with my $100 Single Entry moving up, eventually finishing in the Top 50 for a solid payout, and my cash team looking steady. Well, unlucky for me, I didn’t realize how bad the switch to the Jets D in cash (getting -3 points) from the Pats would cost me as I ended up finishing with about 128 points and the cash line threshold was about 129 for most single entry double ups… slightly tilting to say the least. However, a good amount went right for GPPs which led to about a break-even week but still… fucking Jets. Onto Week 11.

Cash Game Score: 128.2; good for cashing in ZERO Double Ups… by 1 point

The Good

  1. I felt really good about my QBs for the week and although most didn’t see Luck as a cash game play (sub 5% owned in most double ups), I loved the spot and luck hit 4x value; in GPPs, Russ had a good day and could have been WAY more if he hits Lockett on 4th down…
  2. I’ve only been seriously analyzing the NextGenStats for a couple weeks but the separation that Tyreek Hill gets is seriously ungodly and when I said he could easily explode here… well he did. 35.7 DK points and almost 5x value was a smash.
  3. People were worried the Chargers could get up by too much but Melvin saw consistent usage all day and although he “only” hit 3x, a 27.5 DK Point day is what you hope and, to an extent, expect from a 9k RB.

The Bad

  1. Thought Tevin Coleman was in a prime spot… instead the Falcons get dominated by the Browns and Coleman goes for 9.3 DK Points…
  2. The TILT OF WATCHING ERIC EBRON… my god. Loved Doyle in cash… NOPE. Fucking leech Ebron goes for 3 TDs on 4 targets (1 rushing) and Doyle ends up with 3 catches for 36 yards despite playing a dominating portion of the snaps and routes run… awesome.
  3. With tight pricing this week, picking the right defense(s) was pretty big; I did not pick the right defense(s). I wasn’t as shocked by a letdown game for the Pats as much as I was shocked that Corey Davis dominated Gillmore and the D gave up 34 points… yikes.

Matchups I Like This Week

Titans at Colts

I actually think this game goes way over the total as the Colts have been a dominant offense the last several weeks and while the Titans D hasn’t been too bad, they have a few absolute liabilities at CB (Malcolm Butler) and Luck should be able to pick them apart. The Indy D is just not very good and Corey Davis/Dion Lewis should be able to rack up yards and TDs against them. I like this game as a strong contrarian stack instead of the Eagles/Saints or Cowboys/Falcons.

  • Titans I Like: Mariota (GPP; riskier), Lewis (Cash/GPP), Davis (Cash/GPP), Sharpe/Taylor/Smith (risky/deep GPP fliers)
  • Colts I Like: Luck (Cash/GPP), Mack (GPP), Hilton (GPP), Rogers (GPP flier), Doyle (GPP), Ebron (LEECH GPP FLIER)

Cowboys at Falcons

Two teams here who are barely hanging onto playoff hopes in what should be an interesting game. The Cowboys pull off a strong upset while the Falcons come off of a huge upset in a game they desperately needed to win. Falcons D improves this week with Jones back from injury but it’s still not good and very susceptible to deep plays and RBs running all over them. Dallas has a better defense than most would realize but they can get beat over the middle and on deep balls.

  • Cowboys I Like: Dak (GPP), Zeke (Cash/GPP), Cooper (Cash/GPP), Beasley (GPP flier)
  • Falcons I Like: Ryan (GPP), Julio (Cash/GPP), Ridley (GPP), Sanu (GPP flier), Hooper (GPP)

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

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-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Carson Wentz vs. NO ($6,300): Tough to gauge what kind of ownership Wentz will get but I have the feeling that although people will talk about this game and him as a QB, majority of the ownership will go to Brees/Cam/Ryan. Wentz is averaging 24.48 DK Points over his last 3 games and the Saints give up an average of over 27 DK Points a game to opposing QBs. Wentz will need to be throwing to not only keep up with the Saints offense but also because for how miserable the New Orleans secondary is, their Run D is actually pretty solid. Wentz is my favorite for a cash game play as well.
  • Deshaun Watson vs. WAS ($5,700): I like the Watson play for 2 reasons, 1) I think Washington is a terrible team and their record couldn’t be less indicative of their actual talent and 2) Watson has now had a bye week to get healthier and the team is riding a solid 6 game hot streak. Watson is averaging about 20.7 DK Points per game over his last 3 and is hitting his 3x value target at about a 75% clip for the season. That is pretty solid and with his sub 6K price and low ownership, I like him as a strong pivot off of the top studs that most will target this week.

GPP Running Backs

  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. ATL ($8,500): Over their last 4 weeks, the Falcons D has given up an AVERAGE of 34.1 DK Points to RBs. Just let that sink in and then ask yourself why not to play Zeke in at least 50% of your LUs this week. This offense has looked slightly better with the addition of Cooper, but it still runs through Zeke, who’s getting 88% of the rushing workload, 5-6 targets a game (1-2 RZ targets), and the 3rd most RZ attempts for RBs in the league. Smash play this week for me and I will certainly have him in cash.
  • David Johnson vs. OAK ($7,500): It’s nice to see Byron Leftwich using DJ how he should be utilized as DJ has now strung together some solid games. DJ should be able to see around 4 or 5 targets and get most of the rush work; the only concern in any Cardinals game is that Arizona isn’t good and that this game sucks. However, banking on how horrible the Raiders are as a team and the Vegas line of -5 for Arizona (implied total of 22.5 points which is much higher than their season average of 13.8 points), I like DJ as a safe floor/very high upside play. Strong consideration in cash for me as well.
  • Dion Lewis vs. IND ($4,800): I love the idea of going back to Lewis this week after people saw Henry leech 2 TDs at the goal line and in a game where the Titans scored 34 points, I believe Lewis only scored between 8-10. He once again is in a solid spot here, and is still the clear lead back, as he commands about 68% of the rushing workload for the team. He doesn’t always see a massive target share (about 15-16% on the season), but Indy’s DVP vs. their DVOA is very telling and while they’re a decent Rush D per DVOA, they give up an above average amount of points to RB which sets up nicely for Lewis.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • DeAndre Hopkins vs. WAS ($7,900): Despite being an elite WR week in and week out, Hopkins is priced down I presume due to his match-up with Josh Norman… who is overrated AF. I believe Hopkins is match-up proof and while he doesn’t have an “easy” matchup, I will go all in on GPPs for a guy who averages about 28% of the team’s market share, 10 targets a game, about 2 RZ targets a game, and 14.2 yards per play. On the year, Hopkins has 12 targets alone instead the 10 yard line… bet on his volume.
  • Alshon Jeffery vs. NO ($6,300): Another candidate that I hope is lower owned due to his weak performance on primetime but man Jeffery is in an ultra smash spot; facing a bad secondary in a game where the Eagles will likely be trailing. Jeffery has seen his target share slightly drop the last few weeks and as a result, so have his DK points; however, the Saints give up on average around 30 DK Points to WR1s and I expected Wentz to rely heavily on Jeffery. Per NextGenStats, Jeffery is great after the catch too in which he averages about 4.5 YAC and about 3.9 YAC/Expected Yards per catch, which is good for Top 20 in the NFL for WRs. He has the potential for a strong breakout game here.
  • Tre’Quan Smith vs. PHI ($4,000): Instead of going with someone like Michael Thomas (GOAT play) or Golladay or OBJ, let’s go with a flier in Tre’Quan Smith. No doubt people should off after he racked up ZERO points in a game where the Saints scored 51. LOL. The Eagles are about the 10th ranked D per DVOA against WR1 yet struggle mightedy against WR2, where they rank 30th. With a severely banged up secondary and any elite focus on Michael Thomas, I think Smith could see light coverage and beat the Eagles for a few deep balls. Certainly still a flier for me but an interesting one nonetheless.

GPP Tight Ends

  • Zach Ertz… play him.
  • Ricky Seals-Jones vs. OAK ($2,900): Probably will get some ownership this week unfortunately since the TE is so terrible outside of Ertz, but not only can OAK not cover anybody, they really can’t cover TEs. Over the last 4 games, they’ve given up an average of about 24-25 DK points to TEs. When you’re priced here, you’re not looking for a guy to put up 30 because it’s not going to happen; instead, we’re looking for a 3x or 4x value, which in this case is only about 8-10 points. Quietly, Seals-Jones is averaging about 5-6 targets per game and for this price, he averages around 7-8 DK Points per game. Will he smash? Most likely not, but a solid saver to get up to elite RBs/WRs and could easily hit value.
  • Evan Engram vs. TB ($4,100): Engram used to be one of Eli’s favorite targets and I’m not quite sure what happened but this week is about a good as spot as any to rack up yards and/or a TD against this joke of a defense. That’s the good news; the bad news is that he only has about 10% of the market share right now and around 3-5 targets a game. I think I’d use him in GPPs only since he has a very low floor, but in a game where the Giants need to keep up with the TB high flying offense, he could see some extra work.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Texans vs. WAS ($2,600): If you don’t want to pay up to the Ravens or Cardinals D, I like this Texans defense a lot this week. Texans are in about the top 1/3 of Adjusted Sack Rate and the Redskins have such a depleted offensive line it’s insane. Houston actually has the 3rd best defense in the league per DVOA (not sure if I’m fully onboard with that) and rank #1 against the run. With the Redskins miserable O-Line and bad WR core, also due to injuries, they should be able to generate solid pressure and turnovers.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Carson Wentz vs. NO ($6,300)
  • Cam Newton vs. DET ($6,200)

Cash Running Backs

  • Saquon Barkley vs. TB ($8,700)
  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. ATL ($8,500)
  • David Johnson vs. OAK ($7,500)
  • Dion Lewis vs. IND ($4,800)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Michael Thomas vs. PHI ($8,800)
  • DeAndre Hopkins vs. WAS ($7,900)
  • Alshon Jeffery vs. NO ($6,300)
  • Emmanuel Sanders vs. LAC ($6,200)
  • Corey Davis vs. IND ($5,600)
  • Amari Cooper vs. ATL ($5,400)

Cash Tight Ends

  • Zach Ertz vs. NO ($6,600)
  • Ricky Seals-Jones vs. OAK ($2,900)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Cardinals vs. OAK ($3,100)
  • Texans vs. WAS ($2,600)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Drew Brees 15%
  • Cam Newton 12%

Running Back

  • Saquon Barkley 20%
  • Melvin Gordon 18%
  • David Johnson 17%

Wide Receiver

  • Odell Beckham Jr. 25%
  • Michael Thomas 21%
  • Keenan Allen 18%
  • Julio Jones 18%
  • DeAndre Hopkins 12%

Tight End

  • Zach Ertz 25%
  • Greg Olsen 12%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Cardinals 14%
  • Texans 12%

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