All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
Go follow BigBucksNoWhammie (@BPSnow11 on Twitter) for an AMAZING course preview. As NFL season rolls on, these previews will be much lighter, and I will continue to have heavy focus on football.
We’re at our last event of the year (except for the Hero World Challenge sponsored by the GOAT but it’s only 18 players) and we get to finish off with a spectacularly weak field. We get several guys who live in the area or have played here a ton with the likes of Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, and Russell Henley who are looking to get themselves a win (in Kirk/Kisner/Henley’s case) and play in the tournament of champions in Hawaii in January. The tournament consists of a round on the Seaside Course on THU/FRI and the other day you’re playing the Plantation Course. If you make the cut, you play the Seaside Course both days of the weekend. Let’s try to hit a winner as I was close to getting Danny Lee last week (finished solo 2nd) as I did not expect Kuchar to actually close for once (first since 2014) but hats off to him. Onto the RSM…
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: BS
- Opportunities Gained (new Stat from Fantasy National)
- SG: APP (Custom Blend of <150)
- Total Driving (blend of Distance and Fairways Gained)
- SG: Short Game
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
- Sand Saves Gained (small weight)
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
C.T. Pan ($9,700): C.T. is going to be chalk this week for sure, most likely 20+ or 25% but it’s for good reason; he has been extremely close to a win, is riding some solid form, and he has solid stats for this week. 3 straight Top 25s, including a 16th this past week in Mexico as well as a 13th finish here last year and 6th in 2016, if C.T. can have a solid week on the greens, he should both contend as well as rack up DK Points. He ranks 17th in the field in SG: T2G, 5th in Fairways Gained, 13th in DK Points, 28th in the SG: APP blend, and 21st in the Total Driving blend. Everyone likes C.T. this week and although I think his betting odds may be a little short at around 22/1, I think he’s a fantastic GPP and cash DraftKings play. 60%.
Lucas Glover ($9,900): For the degenerates like myself watching the weak Shriners field a few weeks ago, you saw Glover play extremely well only to falter down the stretch and 3 jack it from a few feet to take himself out of contention and finished T7. Overall, however, his form has been pretty solid with that 7th 2 weeks ago, a 14th the week before that, and then a 2nd place several weeks back. Glover’s history here is a little mixed as he has 2 MCs as well as a 9th and 15th place scattered in as well. The shocking thing is that Glover is actually ranked 1st overall in my total model, ahead of both Webb and CT, which is surprising, but we’ll roll with it. He’s 13th in the field in DK Points, 12th in the SG: APP blend, 7th in SG: T2G, 14th in SG: BS and does have any glaring fallacies in the stats department. I’ll roll with 50-60%.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
Sungjae Im ($8,000): If you have been watching any golf over the last several weeks, you’ve seen this name on leaderboards as someone, just as how we see Cameron Champ, who will be a stud in the years to come. Im can be a little sporadic and has been bad chalk a few times but he finished 15th 2 weeks ago and 4th several weeks back in one of his first PGA starts. He ranks 5th in my Total Driving blend, 14th in SG: T2G, 16th in Fairways Gained, 9th in SG: OTT, and 33rd in Opportunities Gained. I think he’s much too cheap this week and after missing the cut last week could come in slightly lower owned than he has been; I’ll target 40-60% most likely.
Anders Alberton ($7,300): This is another kid from the Web.com that has been a beast in this swing season. How about these stats? 7th in this field in SG: T2G, 5th in SG: BS, 14th in Total Driving, 17th in Fairways Gained, 2nd in SG: APP blend, 1st in Opportunities Gained… yeah he’s a good player. In his last 7 starts he has a 5th, 2nd, and 9th and consistently outperforms his DK Points compared to his price. His stats may be slightly skewed especially long term, since he’s new, but his recent form has been solid and I would even consider him in cash this week if he becomes to chalk. 40%.
Low Tier Options (Under 7K):
Corey Conners ($6,900): Conners is definitely not in peak form right now as his last 5 starts go: MC, MC, 2nd, MC, MC; however, his stats lineup for him to be a solid value play this week. He ranks 8th in SG: T2G, 4th in Total Driving, 26th in SG: APP blend, 12th in Opportunities Gained, and 4th in SG: OTT. His struggles, as you might see looking at MCs and then at Opportunities Gained, is his putting, so if he can even putt average on the greens and make the cut, he makes for great value and DK scorer. 20-40% for me.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays
1) Webb Simpson
2) Sam Ryder
3) Sungjae Im
4) Anders Albertson
Fades for Me
J.J. Spaun: That is an outrageous price for a guy who a couple weeks ago was in the 6K range… his irons have been hot and he’s been playing well but chalk combined with massive price raise = no thanks
Cameron Champ: I keep getting burned as he never falters so why jump on the train now?
Jim Furyk: Hilarious getting hype and trending towards 15% ownership and his $8,200… no.
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, and 20% Course History
- Lucas Glover
- Webb Simpson
- C.T. Pan
- J.J. Spaun
- Anders Albertson
- Sam Ryder
- Cameron Champ
- Bronson Burgoon
- Robert Streb
- Corey Conners
- C.T. Pan – 25%
- J.J. Spaun – 22%
- Webb Simpson – 18%
- Chris Kirk – 16%
- Lucas Glover – 14%
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