NFL Week 10 DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter/@OneWeekSeason on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 9 Quick Recap

We got back on track in Week 9 as I swept double ups behind strong performances from all my RBs whom each hit 4x value and led to a pretty stress-free afternoon despite not having nearly as many pieces from the LAR/NO shootout as most others. It was an interesting week where most of the chalk hit, including for Vegas lines as the books took one of the largest beatings in history, and that translated to DFS chalk as well. I felt cash wasn’t too complicated as Cam seemed like an obvious play with C Mac, Sutton was the guy everyone was going to play (faded in GPPs) and I liked the spot for Howard, but a 2 TD day was definitely his ceiling and a bit lucky. Kamara smashed as we thought, Hunt was a stud, and as is becoming a theme, my WRs underperformed but were saved by my RBs. Onto Week 10…

Cash Game Score: 169.78; good for cashing in 7 of 7 Double Ups (100%)

The Good

  1. I mentioned earlier that we hit on RBs; I took 100% C Mac and he racked up 32.7 DK points; Hunt went for 33.1 and Kamara went for 33.6 DK Points; almost 100 points from your 3 RBs should certainly get you there
  2. Strong TE week as I played Olsen/Howard in GPPs and Howard in cash; Howard racked up 2 TDs for 21.3 DK Points while Olsen made a sick catch in the end zone (go watch) and finished with 19.6 DK Points
  3. Cam didn’t exactly “smash” but he still hit 3x value while I played Alex Smith (which I didn’t love) in GPPs and he retuned 4x value with a 20.44 DK Point performance

The Bad

  1. Swapped my 60% Hopkins to Thielen about an hour before lock because I thought a lot of sharps were on Thielen… dammit. Thielen didn’t kill me but 12.7 points at that price is quite the under performance.
  2. Thought DeVante Parker was a nice price/upside play; however, he was not. Saw 2 targets and a total of 1.8 DK Points.
  3. Pivoted to David Moore as a flier off of Lockett/Baldwin and he dropped 2 in the end zone… what are you gonna do?

Match-ups I Like This Week

  • Seahawks at Rams
    • Seahawks I Like: Wilson (GPP), Davis (if Carson out, GPP/Cash), Lockett (GPP), Moore (GPP flier)
    • Rams I Like: Gurley (Cash/GPP), Cooks (GPP), Kupp (Cash/GPP), Woods (Cash/GPP), Rams DST (GPP)
  • Falcons at Browns
    • Falcons I Like: Ryan (GPP), Coleman (Cash/GPP), Julio (Cash/GPP), Ridley (GPP), Hooper (Cash Saver/GPP)
    • Browns I Like: Baker (GPP), Chubb (GPP), Duke (GPP), Landry (GPP), Njoku (Cash/GPP)

 

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

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-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Russell Wilson vs. LAR ($5,700): I don’t really understand why the Seahawks are so run heavy this year when they have a mobile QB with an amazing arm, 3 pretty strong receivers, and a bad defense; however, they run a lot. Russell Wilson has been around average all year but is still averaging about 19 DK Points per game and has hit 3x value in 57% of his games. The Seahawks did take the Rams to the wire a few weeks ago (Lost 33-31) so they are capable, in my opinion, of at least staying in this game. The Rams D has been more susceptible than people realize to the pass which can set up for Russell to throw 30+ times this game.
  • Andrew Luck vs. JAX ($5,500): This is definitely more of a contrarian play since we’re all trained to be scared of the Jaguars defense but I think we’ve seen how lackluster they’ve been, at least compared to last season, over the last several weeks. If you look at the full season they are only giving up about 16 DK Points to QBs but if we look at their last 4 weeks DVP they’ve given up an average of 22 DK Points. Three weeks ago they gave up 40 to Dak and the Cowboys. They can be beat and although Hilton is in a tough matchup with Ramsey, he can be beaten this year.

GPP Running Backs

  • Melvin Gordon vs. OAK ($9,000): Gordon is surely to be chalky but it’s for good reason: Oakland sucks and has given up, Oakland is ranked dead last in DVOA against pass catching RBs, and Gordon has been a threat in both the running and passing game this year. He is taking about 72% of the rushing workload, about 19% of the targets and seeing anywhere from about 5-7 targets a game. He’s a lock for my cash games, too.
  • Tevin Coleman vs. CLE ($5,400): I’m not sure I understand Coleman’s price as he’s facing the same Browns D who just got torn up by Hunt and has given up 10 rushing TDs in the last 4 weeks alone. While Coleman has the potential of getting TDs leeched by Ito Smith, he still sees 57% of the rushes and a few targets per game, minimum. I think he’s a strong cash game and GPP play as I think his ownership comes in under 10%.
  • Jordan Howard vs. DET ($4,700): A ton of the focus on the Chicago run game is around Tarik Cohen but if we want to believe Vegas, which we always should, the Bears should be up in this game. Howard is a very cheap options and is facing the 2nd to last ranked team against RB1s, per DVP, whom are giving up 21.38 DK Points per game. Howard is ranked 8th in my overall RB model as he is getting about 60% of the rushes and 6th most RZ rush attempts in the league. Cohen remains a threat in the passing game and on 3rd downs but I like Howard as an interesting GPP play.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Julio Jones vs. CLE ($8,300): Julio is averaging 21.8 DK Points a game and just caught his first TD last week… oh. I don’t really care that Denzel Ward is on him (who’s hurt by the way) because Julio is matchup proof. Julio is commanding 30.5% of the team’s targets, seeing 11.4 targets a game, and is seeing 47.2% of the team’s air yards (1st in the league for WRs), per NextGen stats. There shouldn’t need to be a case made to play Julio but I love him in this spot in which the Falcons are trying to string together some wins for a potential wild card berth.
  • Tyreek Hill vs. ARI ($7,300): Hill is priced lower than Tyler Boyd this week… so there’s that. Speaking of NextGen stats, Hill ranks 1st overall for WRs in my combination of Separation gained (32nd, average of 3 yards of separation), average air yards per reception (14.2 yards), and % of team’s overall air yards (34.72%). I guess there’s the potential of Patrick Peterson following him all day but Peterson has only done that once this year and Hill is just too fast… he could easily explode here.
  • Tyler Lockett vs. LAR ($4,800): Guess who’s having a terrible year? Marcus Peters. Guess who hit him for 3 catches, 98 yards and TD on 4 targets in Week 4? Tyler Lockett. Peters has been more of a liability this year than Ryan Gosling at T.C. Williams High in 1971 and I don’t see that changing this week. The Seahawks will need to take them deep to stay in this game and Lockett is that deep threat they need. Lockett ranks 8th in my WR model and is facing the 29th ranked DVP team against WR2s; further, he is seeing about 20% of the team’s targets and averaging about 13.6 DK Points a game. He comes with a very low floor but his ceiling is so high that I love him as a GPP play stacked with Wilson.

GPP Tight Ends

  • Trey Burton vs. DET ($3,900): Burton is always a volatile player as he can have a blow up game such as his one against NE where he saw 11 targets and caught 9 of them for 126 yards and a TD but in the 3 other games around then he’s seen targets of 4, 4, and 3. However, in 3 of his last 4 he has caught a TD so clearly he’s getting the RZ that we hope for with a TE. At this price I’m comfortable taking him in both GPPs and cash and hope for a TD that pushes him towards that 3x that we’re looking for at a cheap discount.
  • Jack Doyle vs. JAX ($4,300): After we saw Doyle out with an injury from Week 2 through Week 8, he returned in Week 9 to lead the team in receiving yards as well as catching a TD. When Doyle is on the field he’s one of Luck’s favorite targets and I don’t see that changing against a Jaguars team that can get beat over the middle.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Patriots vs. TEN ($2,700): This is just a play off of the fact that Mariota makes a lot of mistakes and the Pats have the highest adjusted sack rate of any team on the main slate (about 10.7% I believe). I don’t generally like paying up for defense, although I probably should since the Bears dominated last week, but the Jets, Packers, and Chargers stand to be the chalk so I will try to pivot to a defense that accumulates sacks and can generate solid turnovers if the Titans are trailing.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. WAS ($5,900)
  • Andrew Luck vs. JAX ($5,500)

Cash Running Backs

  • Todd Gurley vs. SEA ($9,400)
  • Melvin Gordon vs. OAK ($9,000)
  • Tevin Coleman vs. CLE ($5,400)
  • Mike Davis vs. LAR ($4,300) <<<<<< IF CHRIS CARSON IS OUT
  • Alvin Kamara vs. CIN ($8,700)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Julio Jones vs. CLE ($8,300)
  • Robert Woods vs. SEA ($6,600)
  • Josh Gordon vs. TEN ($6,000)
  • Tyler Boyd vs. NO ($7,500)
  • Corey Davis vs. NE ($4,500)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. MIA ($5,000)

Cash Tight Ends

  • Trey Burton vs. DET ($3,900)
  • Jack Doyle vs. JAX ($4,300)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Jets vs. BUF ($3,400)
  • Packers vs. MIA ($3,100)
  • Patriots vs. TEN ($2,700)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick 12%
  • Philip Rivers 10%

Running Back

  • Kareem Hunt 30%
  • Todd Gurley 25%
  • Melvin Gordon 22%

Wide Receiver

  • Michael Thomas 20%
  • Tyler Boyd 15%
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling 12%
  • Keenan Allen 11%
  • Tyreek Hill 10%

Tight End

  • Travis Kelce 18%
  • Rob Gronkowski 10%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Jets 20%
  • Chargers 12%

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