Week 9 NFL DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter/@OneWeekSeason on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 8 Quick Recap

Well people always talk about regression in DFS and “running good” or “running bad” and I got WAXED this past week as I took an approach of only about 5 GPP teams and a cash lineup that I felt good about but just missed in all the wrong places. I loved Conner as my favorite play on the slate and he performed as the overall top DK scorer but after that… not much went right. I don’t hate the process I took but what happened was me targeting the right teams/matchups but having the other receiver go off; for example, I loved JuJu’s spot but we saw him post a rough 7.3 DK points while AB caught 2 TDs. In the lions game, I loved Golladay’s spot but we saw Marvin Jones go for over 100 yards and 2 TDs. It was a bad week in which I picked the correct RBs and very wrong WRs and TEs… so it goes and we move on.

Cash Game Score: 120.18; good for cashing in ZERO of 9 Double Ups (0%)

The Good

  1. Thought it was a blow-up spot for Conner and it was… 41.2 DK Points and over 5x value.
  2. Phillip Lindsay seemed like a strong floor play after it was announced Royce was out; even with some extra work for Booker, Lindsay still managed 20.2 DK Points (4x value)

The Bad

  1. David Njoku in a prime spot against the worst team in the league against TEs and he gets 0 targets… what? That one was brutal.
  2. I loved Ben’s spot at home against the struggling Browns and while he didn’t post a “dud” per say, 17.88 DK Points isn’t spectacular and failed to hit 3x value. When you’re paying up above 6k at QB you definitely need a minimum of around 22 DK Points I think.
  3. I loved the Crabtree matchup as I really didn’t think the Panthers secondary was that great, especially against WR2s, but, despite the Ravens trailing all game Crabtree only caught 3 balls for 31 yards and 6.1 DK points… mistake by me to play him in cash.
  4. Faded Gurley and Mahomes… that’s what I get for doing that. Nuff said.

Matchups I Like This Week

  • Buccaneers at Panthers: This game currently sits with an O/U of 55, which I’m seeing is 2nd behind the massive 60-point total of the Saints/Rams. I like the idea of this targeting this stack due to how much more concentrated and predictable these teams are compared to the Saints/Rams. For the Panthers, they are facing an abysmal defense that is giving up over 130 DK Points per game thus far this season. Of the 131.5 they’ve given up on average, about 50 of those are going to WRs, about 30 to RBs, and 28.7 to QBs. Breaking it down even further, they’re giving up an average of 28 DK points to WR1s alone! This will surely be chalky game, but I can’t get away from a Cam/C Mac/possibly Funchess stack in both cash and GPPs. I also love that D.J. Moore has seen his volume in the offense slowly increase and he’s moved up to about 13% of the targets. Moore has average about 11 DK Points over his last 4 games and is now facing his easiest match-up of the season in which Torrey Smith is most likely missing with an injury. Lastly, TB unsurprisingly sucks against TEs as well and with Olsen getting healthier by the week, he has a chance to see more and more snaps and increase his target share. Olsen has caught a TD in his last 2 games despite limited targets but it’s encouraging to see that he’s one of Cam’s favorite targets in the Red Zone.

On the other side of the ball, we get to see FitzMAGIC back in action. We know that TB will most likely be throwing all game and while Carolina presents a much stronger defense than TB, they are still susceptible at the WR2 and TE position. Desean Jackson always presents massive play potential and he’s the flier I would want to have on this side of the ball over Evans because: 1) the price savings and 2) he doesn’t need to get peppered with targets to provide value since he can always break free for a 50+ yard TD. O.J. Howard has caught a TD in 2 of his last 3 games and has seen target counts of 4/9/4 over that same span along with posting 60+ yards in each of those games. Despite the presence of Cameron Brate available to take some targets, I think Howard presents a nice floor and is cash game and GPP viable.

  • Panthers I Like: Cam (Cash/GPP), C Mac (Cash/GPP), Funchess (Cash/GPP), Moore (Cash for savings/GPP mostly), Olsen (GPP)
  • Buccaneers I Like: FitzMAGIC (Cash/GPP), Evans (GPP), Djax (GPP), Howard (Cash/GPP), Godwin (GPP flier)
  • Lions at Vikings: I’ve said this multiple times but the Vikings defense really isn’t what it used to be and this is supplemented by some of their top guys having a down year, such as Xavier Rhodes. This game has an O/U of 49.5 and while sometimes division games can be wonky, I think this game has a strong chance to go over. On the Lions side of the ball, we have the departure of Golden Tate which should open up the field for both Golladay and Jones and whoever takes on the slot role (TJ Jones?). I missed on Golladay last week but I like him again this week. Despite Rhodes not being as dominant, he’s still a very tough corner and I assume he will shadow Jones. This year Minnesota is ranked 1st per DVOA against WR1s but 26th against WR2s. Against TEs they’re ranked 29th and against RBs they are dead last (32nd). Unfortunately, the Lions don’t have a reliable TE as I don’t think Luke Willson is the most elite. As for the RBs, it’s looking like Riddick might return this week which turns the backfield into a big question mark again as Kerryon is clearly their best guy but Blount continues to get carries for some reason, including the RZ, Riddick seeks to soak up some targets and 3rd downs which leaves an unknown floor/ceiling for Kerryon. I still like him but maybe more as a GPP and non-cash play.

As for the Vikings, what is to be said about Thielen that hasn’t been already? The dude is incredible and has 8 straight games of 100+ yards, is averaging 12 targets a game, and 30% of the target share for the team. Diggs appears like he’s going to play and although he’ll most likely be shadowed by Darius Slay, he has the ability to get open against anyone. He’s averaging 10.6 targets a game and 25.5% of the target share for the team. With Cook set to most likely miss again, Latavius Murray should have a solid floor intact despite his ceiling not being exactly “slate-breaking.” Detroit does have a horrific rush D so Murray should definitely be considered nonetheless. Lastly, Rudolph presents a decent value option this week at TE as he’s only $3,600 but it’s always hard to know what his role will be week in and week out. He only has 2 TDs on the year and has yet to top 60 receiving yards in any game. He’s a cash game saver but a risky one at that…

  • Lions I Like: Stafford (GPP), Kerryon (Cash if Riddick out/GPP), Golladay (Cash/GPP), Lions DST for EXTREME cash saver (weak D but they get sacks)
  • Vikings I Like: Kirk (GPP), Murray (GPP), Thielen (Cash/GPP), Diggs (GPP), Rudolph (Risky cash saver/GPP flier)

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

 asdfsdfasd

-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Cam Newton vs. TB ($6,600): Since returning from the bye, Cam is averaging about 24.1 DK Points per game with his last 2 games both over 25 DK Points. I pointed out above just how bad TB has been against everyone, especially QBs, and I expect this week to be no different. With his rushing upside as well, I will lock in Cam for my cash QB as well.
  • Alex Smith vs. ATL ($5,000): Smith is purely a GPP play for me but ATL has been crushed by QBs all year so why not Alex Smith too? Well for starters Smith isn’t that good; however, with Atlanta’s high-powered offense, I expect Washington to actually have to throw the ball instead of rely on AP again. Smith has averaged around 15 DK Points per game thus far which isn’t amazing, but his low price allows to you to pay up for RB/WR.

GPP Running Backs

  • Christian McCaffrey vs. TB ($7,800): C Mac ranks #2 in my RB model (behind Gurley obviously) and I think he sets up perfectly this week. Averaging the 5th most touches per game in the league, 96% of the rush attempts for the Panthers and around 6 targets a game, C Mac should get plenty of opportunities in this game. He hasn’t been as dominant in his last few games compared to the beginning of the season; however, last week he faced the difficult Baltimore D, 2 weeks ok the quietly strong Washington D, and the week before a somewhat decent NYG D. He now gets his best match-up of the year and I expect him to eat.
  • Kareem Hunt vs. CLE ($7,700): I’m going back to Hunt again because while Mahomes will probably go off for another 500 yards and 8 TDs, I expect the Chiefs to control this game easily and Hunt to see 20+ touches easily. Hunt has averaged an impressive 26.4 DK Points over his last 4 games and is now facing a Cleveland defense that’s given up an average of 32.7 DK Points to RBs over their last 4 games. Cleveland is much stronger against the pass compared to the run so I expect Hunt to be given a ton of touches.
  • Alvin Kamara vs. LAR ($7,300): I was surprised to see Kamara priced down this week because despite Ingram being back, he is still getting a ton of touches and targets. Over the last 4 weeks, the Rams are giving up an average of 15 more DK points than their season average, likely due to Talib out, and I think Kamara to heavily factor into the Saints’ game plan this week. Kamara has seen 71% of the team’s rushes this year, and averages about 8-9 targets a game. Further, he averages around 2.5 RZ targets a game and overall, about 25% of the team target share. I think we might see a Kamara blow up game here…

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Adam Thielen vs. DET ($8,900): I wrote a bit about Thielen above but there isn’t much to say… he’s an absolute beast, the Lions can’t cover the slot, and Thielen should be locked in for his usual 10+ targets again? He’s a must play.
  • Devante Parker vs. NYJ ($4,600): With Kenny Stills still not practicing as of Thursday, I think Parker sets up nicely in this spot. In their last 4 games, the Jets have given up 10 receiving TDs and have really struggled against WR1s and WR2s. On average, the Jets secondary has given up around 200 yards per game to receivers and with the noted chemistry that Brock showed with Parker last Thursday, he could see a large share of targets if it’s just being split between him and Jakeem Grant.
  • David Moore vs. LAC ($3,900): This is probably more of a flier play but I thought I should talk about Moore for 2 reasons: 1) he has shown strong chemistry with Wilson over the last few games and 2) he has by far the best matchup of the 3 WRs on Seattle. I expect Lockett to be shadowed by Casey Heyward while Baldwin should see a lot of Desmond King. Both of those CBs are very strong which leaves Moore with the softest matchup against Trevor Williams. Moore still carries risk, with a low floor, but it should be noted that he has 4 TDs in his last 3 games and has led the team in targets in 2 of the last 3 games for Seattle. Definitely worth a shot in GPPs in which he’s 5% owned or less.

GPP Tight Ends

  • Greg Olsen vs. TB ($4,700): I expect Olsen to carry some chalk ownership this week after people don’t want to pay up for Kelce (who will also be chalk), but I think Olsen carries a very steady floor in this match-up. He’s played 3 games since returning from injury and has scored 2 TDs and posted about 50 yards receiving in 2 out of 3 of those games. Further, in 7 games, the Bucs have given up 4 TDs to TEs and giving up almost 10 yards per target as well.
  • O.J. Howard vs. CAR ($4,300): Howard has really found his form this year as he averages 12 DK Points a game, 60 yards, has caught 3 TDs, and has shown strong chemistry with FitzMAGIC in their games together. Howard can be a little boom or bust but in a game script where TB needs to be throwing, I assume, he should see his fair share of targets and has the upside for a 2 TD performance despite his risky floor.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Chiefs vs. CLE ($2,700): I definitely don’t think the Chiefs D is that elite and they’re a better home defense compared to away, but Baker is a young QB who still makes a lot of mistakes and very susceptible to sacks. There are certainly other options at defense but in what is predicted to be a high scoring affair, I expect the Chiefs to generate some pressure, especially with Justin Houston back in the lineup, and force turnovers to the newly coached Cleveland team.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Cam Newton vs. TB ($6,600)
  • Ryan FitzMAGIC vs. CAR ($5,500)
  • Jared Goff vs. NO ($6,000)

Cash Running Backs

  • Todd Gurley vs. NO ($9,500)
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. TB ($7,800)
  • Kareem Hunt vs. CLE ($7,700)
  • Alvin Kamara vs. LAR ($7,300)
  • Nick Chubb vs. KC ($4,500)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Adam Thielen vs. DET ($8,900)
  • DeAndre Hopkins vs. DEN ($8,300)
  • Devin Funchess vs. TB ($5,600)
  • Marvin Jones vs. MIN ($5,300)
  • DeVante Parker vs. NYJ ($4,600)
  • Courtland Sutton vs. HOU ($3,900)

Cash Tight Ends

  • O.J. Howard vs. CAR ($4,300)
  • Greg Olsen vs. TB ($4,700)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Broncos vs. HOU ($2,300)
  • Chiefs vs. DEN ($2,700)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Patrick Mahomes 20%
  • Cam Newton 15%

Running Back

  • Todd Gurley 35%
  • Kareem Hunt 25%
  • Alvin Kamara 18%

Wide Receiver

  • Courtland Sutton 28%
  • Michael Thomas 20%
  • Adam Thielen 16%
  • Sammy Watkins 13%
  • Devin Funchess 12%

Tight End

  • Travis Kelce 23%
  • Greg Olsen 15%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Bears 15%
  • Chiefs 10%

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s