All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
Go follow BigBucksNoWhammie (@BPSnow11 on Twitter) for an AMAZING course preview. As NFL season rolls on, these previews will be much lighter, and I will continue to have heavy focus on football.
Let’s get back into it! We still don’t have a full field event but a pretty solid turnout this week for the first WGC event of the year: the HSBC Champions in Shanghai, China. For an extensive preview of the course, as I said above, follow @BPSnow11 on Twitter and go subscribe (FREE) to GupsCorner.com for all their picks and for Bucks’ weekly preview. It’s truly one of the best in the business. This week, like the last few, is tough and I lower my bankroll significantly since there is no SG data and therefore much more difficult to identify trends, key stats, and what has led to Top 5s, Top 10s, etc. I think loading up a model on some current form (last 4-6 weeks, if they’ve been playing) as well as stats will be more important than course history this week. Not that I am disregarding Course History but there have been multiple first-time players who have won this tournament so clearly it is not crucial for success here.
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: BS
- SG: APP (Custom Blend of <150, 200+)
- Total Driving (emphasis on Driving Accuracy)
- GIRs Gained
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,100): Coming off of what I feel like was a very lackluster season for Hideki, he has 3 Top 20s and 2 Top 5s in his last 5 starts (albeit a little spread apart), but I think he’s finally found most of his game back. Hideki has won here before (and WD’d twice) and is ranks 1st in my model in my SG: APP blend, 7th in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: BS, 8th in GIRs Gained, and 3rd in my overall power rankings (Key Stats + Current Form + Course History). Always known as a bad putter, Hideki is much better on Bent grass greens versus Bermuda and actually ranks in the Top 30 in my SG: P blending for the week. If he can have even an average, or above average, week with the flat stick, I could see him contending and getting himself right back in the mix for a top ten player in the world (currently 22nd). 50+% exposure.
Jon Rahm ($9,300): Rahm hasn’t played (stroke play) in several weeks but I think this track sets up well again for his possible bomb and gauge approach. Rahm ranks 6th in PGA TOUR stats in SG: OTT while he ranks 4th in SG: OTT amongst the Euro Tour. He ranks 13th in DK Points, 14th in SG: T2G, and 11th in SG: BS in this field and if he can stay out of his head (like every week) and stay out of the thick rough, he always has the chance to contend. His only time here was last year where he had a non-impressive 36th but like I said, I’m not weighting that too heavily and being such an elite birdie-maker, if he can avoid the big numbers he should provide great value at this low-end price. 50+% exposure.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($8,900): Rafa seems to be generating a decent amount of buzz, which is annoying because I was hoping at his price I could get him sub 15%, but it’s shaping up to be more like 20% or more; still, I think he’s a fantastic play this week. Coming off a 3rd place finish last week, his 2nd Top 5 in his last 5 starts, Bello ranks 9th in the field in GIRs Gained, 10th in my SG: Putting blend, and 13th in BoB%, all which will be imperative to make a run. He finished 5th here last year and while he’s been known to be streaky and falter in these tough fields, I like him as a great value at this price. Bello ranks 4th in my overall power rankings and I will look to have him in at least 50% of my lineups.
Julian Suri ($7,000): I love watching this guy play and at this price, I think we are getting tremendous value. Suri has 4 Top 20 finishes (technically 3, but one is a 21st) and a Top 5 in his last 7 starts and ranks 6th in the field in SG: Par 5s, a key stat necessary to post low scores here. Further, he ranks 17th in SG: T2G, 10th in my Total Driving Blend, 13th in DK Points, and 14th in my SG: APP blend. I’m really hoping that Suri can stay somewhat under the radar and maybe be sub 10 or 12% because I think he is a little bit too cheap, despite the strong field, and I want to have a ton of him. I will probably only play 10-12 lineups this week but I will see to have Suri in around 75% or more of them I think.
Low Tier Options (Under 7K):
Matt Wallace ($6,700): I don’t think Wallace is a very well-known guy as he almost exclusively plays on the European Tour, but this guy already has 3 wins on that tour this year. A very good putter, very long hitter and elite birdie maker, Wallace’s only Kryptonite can be his approach game/GIRs Gained but if he can keep it in the fairway, he should see some nice opportunities. I think at this price you’re not expecting him to win the tournament but has definite Top 20/Top 15 potential. Probably 15-20% for me, which should put you at minimum 3x or 4x overweight.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays (I don’t play cash in small/no cut events, but I like these guys for cash)
1) Justin Rose
2) Tommy Fleetwood
3) CT Pan
4) Keegan Bradley
Fades for Me
Just some ownership fades this week: Rory, Casey, Stanley, Finau
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 55% Recent Form, and 10% Course History
- Justin Rose
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello
- Tony Finau
- Brooks Koepka
- Jon Rahm
- Dustin Johnson
- Thorbjorn Olesen
- Rory McIlroy
- Rory McIlroy – 25%
- Tommy Fleetwood – 23%
- Tony Finau – 20%
- Justin Rose – 20%
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello – 18%
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