Week 7 DraftKings NFL Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 6 Quick Recap

Week 6 was once in which I felt like most of the chalk hit and you were rewarded for not overthinking things and playing the guys who were the most obvious (i.e. Jameis, Julio, Hooper, Thielen, Ryan, etc.) plays of the week. There’s always a case to be made for GPPs to go contrarian and that was easy to do if you faded Bucs/Falcons and Steelers/Bengals, but I’m sure if you did that you most likely got torched. I felt like 5-6 guys of my cash lineup in Week 6 were pretty obvious in that I had to have either Ryan/Jameis at QB, Julio and Sanu at WR, Boyd at WR, and Hooper at TE. After learning that Howard was playing I lost interest in Brate and as soon as I went for a cheap D that causes turnovers (Arizona), it allowed me to move to Conner (who smashed) and Yeldon at RB. Yeldon and Hyde ended up underperforming, but the team was held up by the other 7 solid plays. Onto the good and bad.

Cash Game Score: 176.96; good for cashing in 31/38 H2Hs (82%) and 26 Double Ups (100%) (Single/20 Entry Max)

The Good

  1. I hammered Julio, as did most of the industry, and despite not scoring a TD yet again (not surprising at this point), he went 10 catches for 144 yards and 27.4 DK Points.
  2. I definitely didn’t see the Cowboys blowing out the Jags, but I did like Zeke a ton based on his usage, being the leading target on the team, and the Jags weaker than expected run D; I guess I was kind of bailed out by a TD but Zeke did go 3X on DK points.
  3. I love going back to guys after they burn you or significantly underperform because it’s an automatic depressed ownership spot; this was the case with Tyler Boyd. He put up a dud 8.4 points in Week 5, then got a better matchup and price went only slightly up as he proceeded to catch 2 TDs and go for 25.2 DK Points. As we predicted, Haden shadowed Green and the field was wide open for Boyd.
  4. Finally Njoku catches a TD!!!! In garbage time!! Well Njoku continues to see his targets go up and he finally catches a TD and puts up 18.5 DK Points at only $3,800. I love his spot again this week (against the Bucs) as he hopes to keep it rolling.

The Bad

  1. QB selection in GPPs where I didn’t have Ryan or Jameis was… not good. Deshaun puts up 8.28 points while Carr (Idiotic rec. on my part) puts up 6.78 and gets taken out of the game after getting drilled. I still love Watson most weeks but Carr is just not good.
  2. I hate Mike McCoy, I hate the Cardinals, and I hate how badly David Johnson continues to get used. I should stop betting that they’ll figure out because they clearly won’t but despite getting a late TD, DJ only puts up 14 DK Points and fails to go 3x. Ugh.
  3. If the Titans had any sort of offense maybe that could have been a game and maybe John Brown could have caught more than 2 passes… which would have also won me the King of the Beach Qualifier. However, he did not, all the passes went to Crabtree (who I had but not enough), and Brown was disappointing. I will be back to the well however…
  4. I’m glad I got off of Bears D in cash but 5 points against Brock?? No words for that…

Matchups I Like This Week

  • Vikings at Jets: I think this game has the potential of a sneaky shootout for 2 reasons: I still believe the Vikings defense is overrated (and injured), but also because the Jets, despite being 3-3, are better than people give them credit for this season. Both teams’ defenses are interesting in that the Vikings have been pretty solid against the run, as they rank 9th per DVOA, but when it comes to the pass, they rank 25th. Diving deeper, they rank 1st in defense against WR1 as I presume Xavier Rhodes continues to be a shutdown corner, but as we move to WR2 they rank 31st and they rank dead last against TEs. Translating to DK Points, Minnesota only gives up about 18.7 DK Points per game to RBs but about 37.12 to WRs (around average) and 16 DK Points to TEs (4 points more than the league average). I think this shows a great spot for Jermaine Kearse and even possibly (way riskier/a play I like less) Terrelle Pryor as both often run crossing routes and play in the slot. Further, with Enunwa out, Darnold has to get the ball somewhere and with Rhodes most likely shadowing, or close to it, Robby Anderson, this should open the field a little bit. Now, although Minnesota is a solid run defense, where they struggle is pass catching running backs, aka Bilal Powell, where the Vikings rank 32nd. With Crowell still not practicing (as of Thursday), if Powell sees increased usage and multiple checkdowns due to a decent Vikings pass rush, we have a decent floor for Powell.

Moving to the other side of the ball, I don’t really need to convince anyone to play Thielen. He is the hottest WR in the league right now, is averaging 13.5 targets a game and has gone over 100 yards in each game, which is good for 31.2% of the Vikings target share. Play him. Next you have Diggs, who I think could be held back slightly by Claiborne, a solid corner, but with Diggs’ talent, you can’t expect him to get nothing. Lastly, I actually quite like Dalvin Cook in this spot as he has been injured for a few weeks now, practiced fully on Wednesday, and not many seem to be talking about him. The Jets give up on average around 24.4 DK Points to RB thus far this season and with Cook’s ability to catch out of the backfield (5 and 7 targets his first 2 games), I think he presents a nice floor here. I think this game has strong potential to go over and I don’t mind taking a bunch of shots with some stacks here.

  • Jets I Like: Powell (GPP/Cash if Crowell out), Kearse (Cash/GPP), Pryor (deep GPP throw if he plays), Leggett/Herndon (even deeper GPP darts)
  • Vikings I Like: Cousins (GPP), Cook (GPP), Thielen (Cash/GPP), Diggs (GPP), Rudolph (GPP flier)
  • Saints at Ravens: This game is another one that I think could definitely shoot out as the Saints D clearly is week this year and although the Ravens D has been very solid, the Saints have one of the more high-powered offenses in the league. First, I think it is a little bit of an overreaction to have Brees priced this low and here’s why: Yes, the Ravens D is clearly solid but if we look at their schedule, they haven’t exactly played the most dominant offenses: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Tennessee. I would argue 4 of those games have bottom tier offenses (and coaching), so it is hard for me to be FULLY onboard. The Saints attack gives us Kamara, one of the elites who is now complemented by Ingram, Michael Thomas who’s an absolute monster, and Brees, one of the best QBs of all time. I understand the narrative of Brees away and outside and while it might lower my exposure to him, I see no reason to full fade. Thus far the Ravens are 3rd in DVOA against the run and 5th against the pass, so points won’t come easy, but we saw the Bengals drop 34 on them so it can be done.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco is surely to let me down this week but I’m going to roll with him anyway and take John Brown and Michael Crabtree along with it. The Saints are impressively ranked dead last against both WR1 and WR2s as Lattimore is both injured and not as shutdown as he was last year. I will most likely stay away however from both Collins/Allen because as bad as the Saints have been, they actually rank 1st in rushing DVOA and have only given up about 19 DK Points to RBs through their first 5 games (about 5 less than the average).

  • Saints I Like: Brees (GPP), Kamara/Ingram (GPP), Thomas (GPP), Watson (GPP flier), Tre’Quan Smith (GPP flier if Ginn is out; UPDATE GINN ON IR)
  • Ravens I Like: Flacco (GPP), Crabtree (GPP), Brown (GPP), If you can figure out which TE Flacco is throwing to I would play him too

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

 aasd

-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverages

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Joe Flacco vs. NO ($5,400): Like I said above, Flacco is sure to let me down, as he has done time and time again, but the matchup is great, he’s at home, and his price is one of the lower on the board. He’s averaging about 18.54 DK Points per game, which would put him over 3x value for this matchup and he’s facing the team that’s given up the 3rd most points to QBs (about 27 DK Points on average). If this turns into a shootout and he has to throw, I like him to succeed here.
  • Andrew Luck vs. BUF ($6,200): Similar to why I play Zeke every week, I think Luck is not in the best matchup he’s seen by any means, but the Colts really need to start winning (currently sitting at 1-5) and Luck has gotten healthier and healthier as the weeks have gone on. His yards per attempt continues to rise, he is throwing the ball literally an NFL record pace, and he should hopefully have T.Y. Hilton back for this game. Luck has averaged 24.45 DK Points per game.

GPP Running Backs

  • Todd Gurley vs. SF ($9,800): There isn’t much to say about Gurley… the main is a total beast. Here are his stats so far: 11 TDs on the year, 37 RedZone rush attempts, 25 touches per game, 71.5% of the team’s rushes, 5 targets per game (1.8 RZ targets per game) and should continue to dominate a very weak SF defense. I think that about covers it right?
  • Tarik Cohen vs. NE ($5,100): Cohen is getting some definite buzz after 2 strong games, but as an avid Patriots fan, I have seen how bad their defense is and pass catching backs will continue to see success (Hunt dominated them last week). With the Bears needing to keep pace in this game, I think the game script favors Cohen over Howard as Cohen is only getting up 32% of the snaps so far but gets around 15.5% of the targets, has 5 RZ targets thus far and around 11 rushing touches. Similar to how I see James White to have heavy involvement, I like Cohen in this spot a lot.
  • Kerryon Johnson vs. MIA ($4,500): With Theo Riddick looking like he should be out of this game, I love this spot for Johnson. Despite him being used incredibly poorly because for some reason Blount needs 10-12 touches per game, Kerryon is seeing 40% of the snaps, around 10% of the targets (which should go up if Riddick is out), and about 13 touches per game. Miami actually has a decent pass defense with both Fitzpatrick and Howard, but they give up on average 32 points to RBs, the 4th highest in the league. At this price, Johnson has a solid floor with decent ceiling upside as well.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Adam Thielen vs. NYJ ($8,600): Similar to Gurley, I’m not sure what more needs to be said here, especially since I highlighted Thielen’s attributes above. I think the only thing to add is that this sets up even better for him than Diggs since Claiborne covers that slot position quite well, so I assume Thielen will get his season-usual 12-15 targets. He’s a must play in my opinion.
  • Taylor Gabriel vs. NE ($4,700): I honestly expected a higher price tag for Gabriel this week since they’re playing a porous NE defense in which I expected Robinson to be shadowed by Gilmore and the Bears to be throwing all game. Nevertheless, Gabriel has really cemented himself in the WR2 role in which he’s currently averaging 15.78 DK Points over his first 5 games as well as a 21.1% target share, good for 5.7 targets per game. I think Gabriel could get fed a ton in the middle of the field and carve up NE’s rather weak secondary.
  • Jarvis Landry vs. TB ($7,300): I mentioned above that I like to go back to guys who either burned or underperformed the week before… well, present Jarvis Landry. After putting up a nice 3.1 last week, Landry gets a miserable TB secondary that is giving up around 22 DK Points per game to WR1’s alone and 52.34 DK Points to WRs per game. Landry gets M.J. Stewart, one of the weakest CBs in the league, and he’s averaging 11.2 targets per game and 27.8% of the target share. If he doesn’t succeed in this spot, I’m not quite sure where the blow up spot is…

GPP Tight Ends

  • David Njoku vs. TB ($4,200): Njoku gets to play the same terrible defense as Landry and I’m hoping he can continue his strong connection with Baker. Njoku finally scored last week and is now facing the 28th ranked team against TE for DK. Njoku has seen his target share rise to 19.4%, which is good for 7.5 targets per game, and although I see Njoku being the chalk of the week on such a weak TE slate, I will be way overweight at around 40% and hope he continues to smash.
  • Zach Ertz vs. CAR ($7,100): The TE position really sucks this week and I think if you’re not playing Njoku, you need to pay up for Ertz or Gronk. Ertz remains the mega target favorite on the Eagles and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Carolina is ranked 31st against TEs and Ertz is averaging 11.2 targets a game and 19 DK Points per game. If you can get to him in cash, he’s a lock, but otherwise, I would have solid ownership in GPPs.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Lions vs. MIA ($2,400): I don’t want to pay up for the chalk Colts defense, so I like paying down this week and rolling with the Lions, who are ranked 1st in Adjusted Sack Rate through the first 3 weeks (10.9%). I think Brock had an outlier game last week and we’ve seen how prone he is to turnovers. The Lions can easily force turnovers and if we get lucky and get a defensive TD, they’ll be like the Cardinals last week and go 5x or more for us; plus, it allows us to pay up for WR/RB this week which we need BADLY.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Andrew Luck vs. BUF ($6,200)
  • Baker Mayfield vs. TB ($5,800)
  • Joe Flacco vs. NO ($5,400)

Cash Running Backs

  • Todd Gurley vs. SF ($9,800)
  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS ($8,100)
  • Bilal Powell vs. MIN ($4,200) <<<< IF CROWELL OUT
  • Dalvin Cook vs. NYJ ($5,700) <<< MONITOR HEALTH; PRACTICED WED/DNP THURSDAY; Murray is possible cash game play if Cook can’t go
  • Carlos Hyde vs. TB ($4,700)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Adam Thielen vs. NYJ ($8,600)
  • Taylor Gabriel vs. NE ($4,700)
  • Jermaine Kearse vs. MIN ($4,100)
  • Willie Snead vs. NO ($4,000)
  • Jarvis Landry vs. TB ($7,300)

Cash Tight Ends

  • David Njoku vs. TB ($4,200)
  • Zach Ertz vs. CAR ($7,100)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Jaguars vs. HOU ($3,600)
  • Lions vs. MIA ($2,400)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Jared Goff 10%
  • Baker Mayfield 9%

Running Back

  • Todd Gurley 30%
  • Ezekiel Elliott 22%
  • Peyton Barber 15%

Wide Receiver

  • Adam Thielen 25%
  • Robert Woods 22%
  • DeAndre Hopkins 18%
  • Brandin Cooks 13%
  • Jarvis Landry 10%

Tight End

  • David Njoku 20%
  • Zach Ertz 15%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Colts 15%
  • Rams 10%

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