Week 6 NFL DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 5 Quick Recap

Week 5 was an interesting one as we saw some seriously high scores again and was filled with what most in the industry would call “bad chalk.” I felt I was due for some regression after 3 straight very positive weeks and as anyone who knows DFS and plays at a mid to high volume, you will never win all 17 weeks. There is simply too much variance, too many unexpected outcomes, and some luck involved every week to be a stud week in and week out; however, I did managed to take down my first GPP (albeit split between 4 of us) and win $1K on the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate, which ended up not only saving my week but making it a 3x one. With regards to the main slate, I had some trouble hitting the right WRs again, which ended up being my demise, as well as not targeting the right stacks. Onto the good and bad and my awful cash game score…

Cash Game Score: 127.62; good for cashing in 3/22 H2Hs (14%) and 0 Double Ups (Single Entry)

The Good

  1. I was all in on Thielen this past week and he continued to put up his record setting numbers as he went for 27.6 DK Points; Thielen is a great player and great story.
  2. Zach Ertz was the most expensive TE on the slate and despite his price and predicted ownership, I thought he was a must play against a very overrated Minnesota defense; Ertz went for 30 DK points as he racked up a 10-110-1 stat line
  3. I’m not going to say James Conner is as good as Bell, because he’s not, but the guy does continue to crush in the right spots. I think you had to have Conner to take down any sort of GPP this past week as he went 5x with 37.5 DK points and even got a boost during the week as Big Ben says “Conner will remain a core part of this offense, with or without Bell…” which was interesting to say the least.
  4. “Good Chalk” this past week was Marquez Valdes-Scantling as we found out that Cobb and Allison were both out while Adams was going to be shadowed by Darius Slay; Adams still went off because he’s sick but MVS operated as both the WR2 and slot guy and the floor seemed too high to not lock into cash; 19.8 DK Points and about 6x value.

The Bad

  1. I mentioned “bad chalk” above and that was certainly Vance McDonald; Jesse James is still a part of the offense and I should have known Vance won’t catch 4-6 balls a game.
  2. I’m afraid every week I don’t play Cam he’s going to go off and while Cam didn’t lay an egg, he failed to hit the 3x value threshold. Multiple turnovers kind of hindered his performance and I believe he performed a little better than the numbers who, which includes helping to engineer a game winning drive (and a sick 63-yard FG by Gano)
  3. I ended up on Stafford in cash for a reason I still don’t know since I rarely play him, but I didn’t expect the Lions to get up so much and stop throwing; Stafford only through 26 times and both RBs for Detroit had double digit carries. Only 15.2 DK Points for Stafford on a day where multiple QBs went off was slightly tilting to say the least.
  4. Dammit Doug Baldwin… 1 catch for 1 yard. Not good. I will go back to the well though because I’m a sucker.

Match-Ups I Like This Week: (Note, I will be stacking Falcons/Bucs but everyone already knows this and it has been written about a ton, so no need to waste more words on it in this article)

  • Steelers at Bengals: This game will of course be the second chalkiest game to stack behind the obvious Falcons/Bucs implied shootout but maybe we can get some lower ownership (probably not) on two high powered offenses. This game is an interesting one because you have a receiver like A.J. Green who is more or less matchup proof, yet in the last several times he’s faced Joe Haden, the CB who normally shadows him, he hasn’t put up very solid numbers. I’m not saying anyone should fade Green this week, or ever, but this makes an extremely appetizing spot for Tyler Boyd. Boyd has been a stud all year so far and after posting a very mediocre game last week in which he saw 7 targets but only caught 4 for 44 yards (8.4 DK Points), I think his ownership will be slightly suppressed in a spot where he could have a ton of open space. The Steelers D, for the most part, sucks, and it gives way to Boyd, but also Joe Mixon. With Gio likely still out, Mixon sees to be on the field probably 80+% of the snaps and is facing the 31st ranked team against the run per DVOA, is averaging around 23 touches per game, and in his limited sample, has 10 RZ rushing attempts. On the other side of the ball, not much needs to be said about how good AB/JuJu are and I think this week especially we could see low ownership on JuJu after he only caught 4 catches last week. Despite his weaker game, he still averages 2.4 RZ targets per game, 11 total targets per game and about 25% of the team’s target share. Add in James Conner, who’s been a beast and getting the most rushing attempts for a RB of any team in the NFL, he seems like an auto play.
    • Bengals I Like: Dalton (GPP), Mixon (Cash/GPP), Green (GPP), Boyd (Cash/GPP), Uzomah/Kroft (Extremely risky GPP dart throws)
    • Steelers I Like: Big Ben (GPP), Conner (Cash/GPP), Brown (Cash/GPP), JuJu (Cash/GPP), Vance/James (Risky GPP dart throws)
  • Rams at Broncos: This game is an interesting one as we’re presented with the 2nd highest implied total on the slate and it is receiving significantly less attention, at least in my view, than the Falcons/Bucs and Steelers/Bengals games. The main discussion amongst the DFS community is the 10K price tag for Todd Gurley but this game has a ton of compelling storylines to attack. Starting with the Rams, we have 2 scenarios: Cooks/Kupp don’t pass concussion protocol which leaves the targets almost solely to Gurley, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds. If they end up being out, I feel like Reynolds is a lock and load cash game play as Chris Harris would probably move to cover Woods. If they are both in, I think we have a chance to attack the Broncos bad defense with both Cooks and Woods as Chris Harris normally covers the slot, where Kupp plays about 71% of his snaps. I think I will (don’t feel great about it) be fading Gurley as spending 20% of your salary one guy is a lot to take, especially needing about 30 points to pay off that price. On the Broncos side, the Rams have looked a little bit susceptible to passing attacks with Talib out, as we saw Lockett go deep for one last week and that brings into the discussion, for me, Courtland Sutton. This kid is going to be a stud and I think he’s the 2nd best WR on this team right now (behind Sanders). I also like the GPP flier of Phillip Lindsay in this spot as he’s splitting carries with Freeman but averaging 2-3 targets a game. He’s definitely a risk and could see less work if the Rams start to dominate the game, but a worthy flier nonetheless.
    • Rams I Like: Goff (GPP), Gurley (GPP/Cash if you can afford it), Cooks (GPP), Woods (Cash/GPP), Reynolds (if Cooks/Kupp out, he’s a GPP or Cash play)
    • Broncos I Like: Lindsay (GPP Flier), Sanders (GPP), Sutton (GPP)

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

Captureasd 

-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Deshaun Watson vs. BUF ($6,400): I have Watson projected as my 3rd highest scoring QB and the 5th ranked based on value, while also being the highest upside QB. We saw Watson getting beaten and battered against the Cowboys (due to the incredibly terrible playing calling from Bill O’Brien), but also throw for his 4th straight 300+ yard game. The Texans O-Line still sucks, and Watson will take some sacks, but with his rushing upside, along with throwing 40+ times in the last 3 games, I like Watson’s chances at a 4x+ value game this week.
  • Derek Carr vs. SEA ($5,100): Carr is an extremely frustrating QB to roster to say the least and never someone I would go all in on, but this week I expect him to be well under 5% owned and a someone to take a shot on. He had a bad week last week, but the week before he had a strong 4 TD game against a good Browns defense and he ended up with 36.58 DK Points at only $5,100. We also know how up and down Amari Cooper can be so if Carr can get him involved, we could see a 300+ yard passing day for him.

GPP Running Backs

  • David Johnson vs. MIN ($5,900): I talked briefly above how I think the Vikings D is extremely overrated this year and not as dominant as people think so I was a bit surprised to see DJ sub $6,000 this week. I was on him last week and he put up solid numbers, albeit slightly helped by a late 2nd TD to put him at 21.1 DK Points. I have hope that maybe the Cardinals will get him involved in the passing game more and more (although I’m getting impatient), and while the Vikings rush defense is certainly better than the pass, DJ still has upside based on his volume. He is getting 75% of the rush attempts, has 9 RZ rushing attempts thus far and has about 4.4 targets per game. I think most will be off DJ this week and I think it makes him a solid GPP play.
  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. JAX ($7,000): There is a always the talk that you don’t really want to play anyone against the Jags defense because they are so stout; however, we saw that they can be beat as the Chiefs just gashed them this past week. I’m not saying at all that the Cowboys will do that as their offense is terrible, but this week we get Zeke way down at $7,000 and he has 72% of the teams rushes and 20% of their targets. That is absurd usage against a Jags team that is worse against the run compared to the pass.
  • Chris Carson vs. OAK ($4,400): Carson seems to be getting an interesting amount of buzz this week for a Seattle O-Line that sucks (ranked 29th out of 32nd on PFF), and a team that has used Mike Davis a ton over the last 2 games (Carson missed 1). Carson has gotten 32 carries and 19 carries in his last 2 starts and shown he is a better pass catcher than both Penny and Davis. There’s obviously a good chance Davis gets a TD but I think Carson sees the most volume especially against the terrible Oakland D. He’s not someone I would go to in cash (unless maybe Davis and Penny were both out) but I think taking around 10% should put you overweight in GPPs.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Tyler Boyd vs. PIT ($6,000): I mentioned above how much I like Tyler Boyd in this game but I will reiterate that not only does he have the much better matchup between him and Green, but even if Green sees let’s say 10 targets, there is still plenty of the ball to go around to Boyd especially if this approaches the high game total that Vegas has predicted. The Steelers have already surrendered 12 receiving TDs, and Boyd is seeing 8.6 targets a game, which equals 23.24% of the market share for the team.
  • Julio Jones vs. TB ($7,900): I don’t care how highly owned he is, which could easily approach the 30% mark, I am so all in on Julio this week. I have never gone 100% exposure unless I’m playing 10 or less lineups but I might this week. Yes, Steve Sarkisian is a moron and doesn’t know how to use him, but Julio at this price against this disastrous Tampa Bay defense, he should absolutely explode here. He is the 5th most expensive WR but my #1 value, my #1 in projected points, 3rd in Air Yards in the league, facing the 31st ranked DVP against WR1s, and a game that has an implied total of almost 60 points. The Falcons absolutely need a win after now being 1-4 and if this isn’t a Julio eruption spot I don’t know what will be moving forward…
  • John Brown vs. TEN ($5,500): Tennessee has a weirdly efficient defense and it’s hard to say who gets the Malcolm Butler matchup (currently ranked as the worst CB in the league), but I will be playing both Brown and Crabtree to make sure to expose it. Brown has the most Air Yards in the NFL and as most know, can always be considered as a deep threat. Brown averages 20.84 yards per play and although that could be mitigated this week, he’s still decently cheap as he averages 8.8 targets per game, 19.64% of the market share for the team and presents “GPP winning upside” since he could break free down the field for a TD or two.

GPP Tight Ends

  • David Njoku vs. LAC ($3,800): I said I would die on the Njoku hill and I meant it. The TE options suck this week and I feel like Njoku is the least chalky option that also at least has some talent and gets targets. Njoku could always be slightly shut down since the Chargers D hasn’t been good but their safeties often have the ability to cover TEs quite well; however, with Baker at the helm Njoku averages 6.8 targets a game, 18.4% of the market share and has seen his targets slowly rise over the last few weeks. He’s going to get a TD at some point and I’ll be damned if I’m going to miss that.
  • Austin Hooper vs. TB ($3,500): Like I said above, this position blows this week and even though Hooper is about to be mega chalk, along with Brate, I lean Hooper. The Bucs have trouble stopping pretty much everybody and TE is the weakest of them all. Hooper saw 12 targets last week, this week they’re playing at home and at only $3,500 if he can get to just around 12 points he’s gone 3X his salary and I can be happy with that. With all that being said, I’m excited for his 1 catch, 13-yard game incoming…

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Bears vs. MIA ($3,300): I’m not entirely sure why the Bears aren’t the most expensive defense on the slate considering they’re the best in the league, but they should be an easy lock and load play. They rank 1st against the run, 2nd against the pass and now that everyone is aware that the Dolphins aren’t good after their 3-0 start, the Bears should have no issue crushing Tannehill.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Matt Ryan vs. TB ($6,800)
  • Jameis Winston vs. ATL ($5,800)
  • Andy Dalton vs. PIT ($6,300)

Cash Running Backs

  • James Conner vs. CIN ($7,700)
  • Carlos Hyde vs. LAC ($4,900)
  • Melvin Gordon vs. CLE ($8,200)
  • T.J. Yeldon vs. DAL ($6,400)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Julio Jones vs. TB ($7,900)
  • Tyler Boyd vs. PIT ($6,000)
  • DeAndre Hopkins vs. BUF ($7,700)
  • Jarvis Landry vs. LAC ($6,600)
  • Mohamed Sanu vs. TB ($4,800)
  • Robert Woods vs. DEN ($6,900) <<< if either Cooks/Kupp out
  • Josh Reynolds vs. DEN ($3,900) <<<< if BOTH Cooks/Kupp out

Cash Tight Ends

  • David Njoku vs. LAC ($3,800)
  • Austin Hooper vs. TB ($3,500)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Bears vs. MIA ($3,300)
  • Jets vs. IND ($2,900)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Matt Ryan 15%
  • Jameis Winston 10%

Running Back

  • James Conner 22%
  • J. Yeldon 17%
  • Melvin Gordon 13%

Wide Receiver

  • Julio Jones 25%
  • J. Green 20%
  • Adam Thielen 18%
  • Mike Evans 13%
  • Robert Woods (if Cooks and/or Kupp out) 10%

Tight End

  • Austin Hooper 22%
  • Cameron Brate 18%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Jaguars 10%
  • Bears 9%

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