Week 5 NFL DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 4 Quick Recap

We continued to smash in Week 4 as I put up my highest cash score ever and came rather close to winning a ticket to the King of the Beach Qualifier (6th). Similar to Week 1, we saw an extremely high minimum needed to cash in Double Ups, H2Hs, etc. with around 200 points given or take and my lineup was good for 228.18. With Kamara continuing to shred defenses (3 TDs in Week 4), Boyd continues to impress, and Zeke going off like I hoped he would, it made for a pretty stress free week. People continue to be sharp though as my best lineup was in one of the qualifiers and scored 238.28 points yet still was quite a bit below the winner. Despite a mostly very positive week though, it did not come without some huge misses as well. I’m not sure why Leonard Fournette hates me but for the 2nd time this year (out of 2 times), he gets injured and only scores 4.5 points. I guess there’s nothing you can do about that one but it’s still frustrating to watch a certain % of your lineups dead almost instantly. Same thing happened with Gronk as a hamstring injury had him out most of the game while I owned around 50% in GPPS… yikes. Finally, I thought Russell would do some throwing and rack up yards? He did not. He scored just under 9 points and failed to reach any sort of value. That team sucks. Onto the good and bad…

Cash Game Score: 228.18; good for cashing in 35/35 H2Hs (100%) and all Double Ups (Single Entry)

The Good

  1. I thought the Bengals stack would work again and was so obvious and it proceeded to smash yet again. Dalton/Gio/Boyd put up a combined 75.38 points as Dalton and Boyd were severely underpriced which made for a great cash/tourney play.
  2. Every week you wonder how Kamara will continue to hit value at such a high price tag but week after week he continues to do it… we’ll see how he’s affected by Ingram’s return this week.
  3. I had to have heavy exposure to Zeke this week as I felt he was underpriced to go along with a completely non-existent Dallas pass offense combined with Dallas having a miserable run defense (allowing 7th most yards per carry/27th in Run DVOA).
  4. Sterling Shepard was another free square this past week in my opinion; we knew Lattimore would shadow OBJ and New Orleans simply can’t cover WR2s this year.
  5. FINALLY, Corey Davis gets the work and credit he deserves; crushes over 6x value as he continues to be peppered by targets and show just how damn good he is; I love this kid.

The Bad

  1. Russell Wilson was terrible. I was wrong about this game. The Seahawks blow.
  2. Did Chris Hogan like hit on Giselle or something? I simply don’t understand the lack of targets but the Pats stack did NOT work with Gronk getting injured/Hogan’s one target
  3. After seeing Mike Williams rack up almost 200 yards in the last 3 games and 3 TDs you would expect continued volume right? Nope, 3 targets for 1 catch of 15 yards… yikes

Matchups I Like This Week:

  • Raiders at Chargers: Alright we know the Raiders are not good. We also know this will most likely not be the biggest shootout of the weekend as everyone and their mother will be targeting the Falcons/Steelers game; however, I think I’m going to be playing quite a few Raiders stacks. I am not trying to chase points from last week but rather attack a defense that has looked so vulnerable without Bosa and other key players through the first 4 weeks. The Chargers are allowing the 4thth most yards per pass while the Raiders rank 7th in yards per pass on their offense. Further, the Chargers are allowing the 5th most points in the league to WRs (about 30.1 DK Points per game) and rank 23rd in points given up to QBs (about 21.2 DK Points per game). Despite Hayward being so solid thus far in his career, he has given up a ton of yards and a few TDs on very few targets. Jordy Nelson has slowly seen his targets increase week by week and finally, and I never would have called this, Jared Cook is having himself A YEAR. Jordy is facing a defense that ranks 23rd against WR2s (about 12 DK Points per game) and Cook should be able to get space as well. On the other side, Oakland gives up the same amount of points to WRs (30.2 DK Points per game), the 5th most to RB1s, and about 18 DK points per game against QBs. Melvin Gordon is an obvious top play, Mike Williams is interesting, Keenan Allen is a good play but expensive, and Rivers should have all sorts of solid opportunities.
    • Raiders I Like: Carr (Cash/GPP), Lynch (GPP), Cooper (Cash/GPP), Jordy (Cash/GPP), Cook (Risky Cash/GPP)
    • Chargers I Like: Rivers (GPP), Gordon (Cash/GPP), Williams (GPP), Allen (GPP)
  • Rams at Seahawks: After calling a potentially high scoring game last week and being dead wrong, I’m going back to the well. Despite the Rams clearly being the best team in the league right now and having the 3rd highest implied total on the main slate at 28.5 points, most of the DFS community is focusing on Steelers/Falcons or Lions/Packers since all 4 of those teams have horrific defenses. Ok, yes Gurley is an amazing play every week in any format. That’s out of the way. Trying to hit on Rams players in cash is very tough since all of them are performing so well and it’s hard to predict whether it’s a Cooks/Kupp game, a Cooks/Woods game, or maybe all 3 as we saw last Thursday. What we do know is that Seattle ranks 27th in DK Points given up to WR1s, so plus one for Cooks. To take it further, Cooks is averaging 8.3 targets a game, 17.4 yards per play, and 1.5 RedZone targets per game. Robert Woods is averaging 13.5 yards per play, 8.5 targets per game, and 1.3 RedZone targets per game. Lastly, Kupp is averaging 8.0 targets per game, 2.3 RedZone Targets, and 14.5 yards per play. WOWZA. Those 3 take up 73% of the total target share and Gurley’s 15% make it 88% through those 4. It’s tough to analyze since you don’t want to be spread too thin but it’s looking like Kupp might be the most owned so maybe paying up for Cooks/Woods is the play. On the Seahawks side of the ball, maybe Wilson finally gets some runs and Baldwin/Lockett can break free. We know the Rams D is good but Baldwin saw 7 targets last week, played 76% of the snaps, and should return to a strong floor/WR1 role and at only $5,000 on DK, I think that’s potential for a great value.
    • Seahawks I Like: Russell (GPP), Baldwin (GPP if healthy), Lockett (GPP flier)
    • Rams I Like: Goff (GPP), Gurley (Cash/GPP), Cooks (GPP), Woods (GPP), Kupp (Cash due to probably high ownership)

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

Capture

-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Cam Newton vs. NYG ($6,400): It seems like this year Cam is somewhat back to his old self where he’s rushing the ball, as he has 28 rushing attempts through his first 3 games, which includes 6 RedZone rushes and about 31% of the rush attempts for the Panthers. He’s average about 26.5 DK Points through the first 3 weeks all the while facing a bad Giants defense this week who ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 29th in DVOA against the rush. The Giants have been decent against WRs surprisingly and I expect to Janoris Jenkins to limit Funchess this week so I like Cam to take on even more of a rushing role and the game to flow between him and C Mac.
  • Russell Wilson vs. LAR ($5,100): I talked about Russell above but this price is so low against a team that the Seahawks will undoubtedly be trailing. My game theory is that the Seahawks will be trailing, Baldwin is slowly getting healthier, and the Rams are in fact missing a few guys on defense (Talib is out and Peters is recovering from an injury). If nothing else Russell is solid value this week and a two TD+ game could make this a really nice spot to pay down at QB while most play Ryan/Big Ben/or even Bortles.

GPP Running Backs

  • Christian McCaffrey vs. NYG ($8,000): Here are some of C Mac’s stats through the first 3 weeks: 8 RedZone rushing attempts, 51% of the rushing workload, 5.9 yards per rush, 7.14 yards per catch, 6.5 targets per game, 28% target share, and 23.27 DK Points per game. Oh yeah and he HASN’T SCORED A TD YET. C Mac is in such a smash spot, again, for me that he’s a lock for cash, a lock for some of my heaviest exposure in GPPs, and someone who I love stacking with Cam to ensure we get all the RedZone rush attempts. As I mentioned above, the Giants rank 29th in DVOA against the run and 22nd against the pass, so I love this play.
  • James Conner vs. ATL ($7,500): I don’t think Conner is being forgotten this week but he’s definitely not being talked up to the extent of AB, JuJu, or Big Ben. Let’s not forget what RBs, especially those who can catch, have done to the Falcons thus far. Week 1 was maybe a bit of a wash, but in Week 2 C Mac dropped 31 DK Points on them, Kamara unloaded for 37 on them in Week 3, and in Week 4, Gio put up 25.6 DK Points. The Falcons have even said their game plan is to funnel the targets to the middle of the field with RBs and try to limit WRs (hasn’t worked). Unsurprisingly, the Falcons are ranked 30th in DVP against RBs and Conner is getting 78% of the rushes for the Steelers as well as 6 targets per game. I’m hoping people might be slightly off since he has disappointed in his last few games after a strong week 1 because this spot lines up perfectly.
  • David Johnson vs. SF ($6,300): Well call me optimistic but maybe the Cardinals are finally starting to figure out that the best player on their team should be on the field a lot and should be catching balls out of the slot/lined up as a receiver. Just maybe. For his talent, I will always take DJ at this price even with arguably the worst OC in the league calling plays. After getting 9 carries in week 1, 13 in week 2, and 12 in week 3, DJ finally got 22 in Week 4 and WOW LOOK WHAT HAPPENED. He has now dropped $300 in price since last week and even though being held down, still gets 74% of the rushes for the Cardinals. I think an interesting thing to note about this game is the implied total for the Cardinals: They have scored an average of 9.2 points a game through the first 4 weeks (yikes) but this week have an implied total of 18.25 by Vegas. With what I believe is a miserable secondary in the 49ers and DJ slowly getting more work, I think this is a great spot at this price.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Adam Thielen vs. PHI ($7,700): I almost never play Vikings players since I don’t think Kirk Cousins is very good, but I think this spot is too good to pass up this week for Thielen. This guy is averaging 14 targets PER GAME so far, 1.3 RedZone targets, and 30% of the target share for the team. Thielen is averaging 27.83 DK Points per game and is also facing the 32nd ranked team per DVP against WR1s in the Eagles, who are giving up an average of 23.59 DK Points per game. When you take an adjusted average of his last 3 games, Thielen averages 30.7 DK Points per game which is above his season average by almost 3 points and over 7 points for his “Fantasy Points per Value” metric. Smash spot for Thielen and I like him over Diggs, BUT, I still believe Diggs is a strong play as well and I will likely have some exposure.
  • Mike Williams vs. OAK ($4,200): I’m going back to Williams this week in hopes that he gets depressed ownership after a bad week. Williams is listed as the WR3 and going up against a defense that’s ranked 31st in DVOA against WR3s. Williams has 3 TDs thus far this season, averages about 17 yards per catch, 4.5 targets per game, and 12.3% of the target share. At this price we don’t need Williams to “go off” but I think he has a solid floor of around 10 points with potential for a higher ceiling than most WR2s/WR3s.
  • Tyler Boyd vs. MIA ($5,700): Tyler Boyd finally gets priced up to around where he should be but still represents a fantastic play, in my opinion. With A.J. Green set to most likely be shadowed by Xavien Howard (who’s been sneaky good this year) and another one of Dalton’s targets, Eifert, out for the season, Boyd should continue to have targets funneled to him. Boyd is averaging 9 targets a game, 23.2% of the target share, and 19.85 DK Points per game. Further, he’s facing the 31st ranked DVP team against WR2s in the Dolphins. The Bengals have proven me wrong and shown they’re a Top 7 offense this year and I expect Boyd to keep producing as one of Dalton’s favorite targets.

GPP Tight Ends

  • Zach Ertz vs. MIN ($6,500): I feel like everyone came into the year assuming the Vikings D was incredibly dominant and can’t figure out why… They have shown to be incredibly vulnerable, giving up about 82.8 total DK Points per game, which includes 6.1 yards per play given up, and 8 receiving TDs. The Eagles look rather lackluster thus far, but the production for Ertz hasn’t slowed at all as he’s still the clear favorite target of Wentz, averaging 11.8 targets per game, 1.8 RedZone targets, and 27.8% of the target share. If you don’t want to play a chalk Kelce or go down to other low-priced options, I think Ertz is always a solid floor, extreme upside option this week. I would also consider in cash games if you can afford to pay up.
  • Jimmy Graham vs. DET ($4,700): I had Graham on here last week and he didn’t do much, but he did catch a TD. Graham is somewhat of a late add for me, but with Allison still in concussion protocol, Cobb most likely not playing, and Adams probably playing and shadowed by Slay if he does, I think Rodgers might have to rely heavily on Graham this week. He’s not a favorite target of Rodgers and Adams will still get a ton of exposure, but Graham is at least averaging 6.3 targets per game and 15.5% target share. Lions have covered TEs decently this year but with the Packers riddled with injuries, Graham has the ability to outperform is DK average of about 9.73 this year.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Ravens vs. ($2,800): Could end up being a chalk play here but I like the Ravens in both Cash and GPPs. I like Baker a lot but the Browns team as a whole is still very susceptible to turnovers and the Ravens D is only giving up an average of 55.2 DK Points per week and 4.4 yards per play. They’ve only allowed a total of 7 total TDs and with Brandon Carr most likely on Landry I like the Ravens to see a few turnovers and a decent upside game.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Cam Newton vs. NYG ($6,400)
  • Derek Carr vs. LAC ($5,200)
  • Matt Ryan vs. PIT ($6,600)

Cash Running Backs

  • Christian McCaffrey vs. NYG ($8,000)
  • David Johnson vs. SF ($6,300)
  • James Conner vs. ATL ($7,500)
  • T.J. Yeldon vs. KC ($5,600)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Adam Thielen vs. PHI ($7,700)
  • Tyler Boyd vs. MIA ($5,700)
  • Marvin Jones vs. GB ($4,700)
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. ATL ($7,500)
  • DeDe Westbrook vs. KC ($4,700)

Cash Tight Ends

  • Zach Ertz vs. MIN ($6,500)
  • Vance McDonald vs. ATL ($3,700)
  • Jared Cook vs. LAC ($4,800)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Ravens vs. CLE ($2,800)
  • Jets vs. DEN ($2,600)

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Big Ben 12%
  • Blake Bortles 10%

Running Back

  • T.J. Yeldon 25%
  • Christian McCaffrey 22%
  • Melvin Gordon 20%

Wide Receiver

  • Antonio Brown 23%
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster 20%
  • Julio Jones 17%
  • Marvin Jones 13%
  • Calvin Ridley 10%

Tight End

  • Travis Kelce 15%
  • Vance McDonald 13%
  • Jimmy Graham 10%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Ravens 15%
  • Jets 10%

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