Week 4 NFL DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCHUPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

In the future, I will employ and write about custom metrics I use, DVOA ranks, etc; however, with this being Week 1 and the turnover year to year, those aren’t very statistically relevant till around Week 4.

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 3 Quick Recap

Week 3 was another fire powered week as we saw shootouts in the games we hoped (Saints/Falcons and Bengals/Panthers) and we didn’t overthink like I alluded to doing in Week 1. We saw tons of fantasy madness in the Saints/Falcons game, which went to OT, and the stack of Brees/Kamara/Thomas continues to work beautifully as they soak up so much of the target share it’s insane. Obviously, Week 3 did not come without surprises, such as: the Vikings being routed by the… Bills? I’m still trying to figure out how that one happened. My beloved Patriots also got smacked by a team I thought was quite terrible in the Detroit Lions; however, it also brought on my favorite part of the Pats season, “Is the Patriots dynasty over?” No, it’s not. Let’s get to the good and bad of this past week…

Cash Game Score: 192.4; good for cashing in 26/27 H2Hs (96%) and all Double Ups (Single Entry)

The Good

  1. The Panthers stack, which I played in cash, worked beautifully as the Cam/C Mac/Funchess stack put up a combined 70 DK points. You knew Cam would have a solid passing day but we were just waiting for him to get those Rush TDs… we got em.
  2. I was obsessed with playing Tyler Boyd this past week as he is so athletic and just need some opportunity; we got that, especially after Green went out, as Boyd put up 28.7 DK points due to a 2 TD game, 100+ yards, and well eclipsing the 6x value threshold
  3. I added him late in the week as he was just too solid to pass up but Kamara/Brees continues to do so much damage and it will be hard to break away from that this week as well… Kamara got another 14 targets I believe which brings him up to 38 TARGETS ON THE YEAR, which is ungodly.
  4. Gio was a free-square Cash play in my opinion… hope everyone played him!

The Bad

  1. I thought Agholor was in a super good spot with Alshon still out and good slot play… not sure what happened here but he saw very few targets and only scored 6.4 DK points
  2. I will die on the Corey Davis and David Njoku hill… man what Davis could do if he had even a shred of a competent/healthy QB; drops 5.4 DK points but I WILL play him again
  3. Not sure anyone saw the Vikings getting blown out last week but that is most certainly the reason Murray did just about nothing… so it goes
  4. I’m wrong often, like all the time, but Kenyan Drake getting 3 points on 5 (!!!) carries for 3 yards and 4 targets for 7 yards I just don’t even know what to say. Facing one of the worst defenses in the league and gets 5 carries is definitely interesting and very tilting.

Matchups I Like This Week:

  • Bengals at Falcons: This is one of the easier games to target as I assume the amount of Dalton/Gio/Boyd or Green stacks will be insane but it’s for good reason. Both defenses are giving up an insane amount of points with Atlanta giving up an average of 25.4 DK Points to QBs through the first 3 weeks and Cincinnati giving up an average of 22.5 DK Points. Further, Atlanta currently ranks 29th out of 32 in points given up to RB1 (about 20 DK Points a game), which means we have yet another nice spot for Gio Bernard. The only issue with the Falcons offense is Sarkisian who I maintain is one of the worst offensive coordinators due to his inability to use Julio correct week after week. At this point it’s just absurd; alas, Julio once again finds himself in a strong spot as Cincy doesn’t have any shut down corners combined with most of the DFS world chasing Ridley’s points from last week. Coleman is an interesting play as well but I’m not sure I see myself getting there because even though he could see around 20 touches, that is assuming Freeman is still out.
    • Bengals I Like: Dalton (Cash), Gio (Cash/GPP), Boyd (Cash/GPP), Green (GPP)
    • Falcons I Like: Ryan (Cash/GPP), Julio (Cash/GPP), Sanu (GPP)
  • Seahawks at Cardinals: Full Disclosure here is that I have a very, very high chance of being wrong on this game as both teams have looked terrible and Vegas has a very low total of 39; however, I wanted to analyze a game that’s not the Saints/Giants or 49ers/Chargers so I’m going to try and go contrarian. On the Seahawks side of the ball, Russell Wilson is dealing with what is possibly the worst O-Line in the NFL and has not had Doug Baldwin the first 3 weeks. That’s the bad news. The good news is that he’s facing a Cardinals Pass D that is 18th in DVOA, allowing 28th most yards per pass, and allowing about 85 DK points per game across all positions. With Baldwin back practicing this week, I think Russell has a good chance at a 3 TD game and at only $5,600 and my prediction for under 5% ownership, I like this spot. Further, it’s hard to assess the SEA backfield, and the run blocking sucks, but Arizona is dead last in points given up to RB1 (26.5 DK Points per game) and while that may be skewed by Gurley’s performance against them, I think Carson has great potential here. Last week against Dallas, Carson had 32 rush attempts for 102 yards and also caught a TD. On the Cardinals side, hopefully Rosen can clear up some of the uncertainty and McCoy can start to finally use DJ correctly. While I don’t have high hopes for the latter, the Seattle Defense is awful and one of the bottom tier defenses against RB1s and WR1s; enter DJ and Larry Fitzgerald. Maybe involve a flier in Christian Kirk and I think you could have a viable game stack for maybe 2-3 lineups out of 20 or more.
    • Seahawks I Like: Russell (GPP), Carson (GPP), Baldwin (GPP if healthy), Lockett (GPP if Baldwin is out; otherwise a flier maybe), Dissly (GPP)
    • Cardinals I Like: Fitzgerald (GPP), Kirk (GPP Flier), DJ (GPP), Rosen (RISKY GPP)

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

WR WR Pos. DraftKings Price CB Matchup Rank
Sterling Shepard WR2  $4,900 P.J. Williams 1
DeAndre Hopkins WR1  $8,400 Quincy Wilson 1
Taylor Gabriel WR2  $3,900 Brent Grimes 1
Odell Beckham* WR1  $8,700 Marshon Lattimore 2
Corey Davis WR1  $5,300 Jalen Mills 2
Christian Kirk WR2/3  $3,700 Tre Flower 2
Mike Thomas* WR1  $9,100 Janoris Jenkins 3
Randall Cobb WR2  $5,100 Taron Johnson 3
Amari Cooper WR1  $5,600 Denzel Ward 3
Julio Jones WR1  $8,200 William Jackson 3
Tyler Boyd WR2  $4,600 Brian Poole 3
Quincy Enunwa WR2  $4,300 D.J. Hayden 4
Davante Adams* WR1  $7,800 Tre’Davious White 5
Keelan Cole WR1  $5,400 Morris Claiborne 5
Marvin Jones WR1  $5,200 Byron Jones 5
Chris Hogan WR1  $5,800 Fitzpatrick/Howard 5

 -Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Tom Brady vs. MIA ($6,700): I think it’s quite the rarity when you get Tom Brady at sub 10% or maybe even sub 7% ownership but that’s what it’s shaping up to be this week. I think majority of ownership is going to be soaked up by Dalton/Brees/Rivers/Baker along with the fact that people like to pay down at QB. Dolphins D has looked solid on paper but I don’t think they’ve really played anybody (Titans and Raiders at home and Jets on the road…) and I think Brady comes into this week pissed off and wanting to right the ship. I think Brady/Gronk/MAYBE FINALLY HOGAN eat in this game.
  • Russell Wilson vs. ARI ($5,600): Most of my explanation for Wilson is above for the games I like to stack but Wilson is looking at sub 5% ownership against a bad team and with Baldwin possibly returning this week. There’s the chance of course that Wilson has a mediocre game but at $5,600 we only need about a 17-20 point game to pay off nice value and I like that risk.

GPP Running Backs

  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. DET ($7,700): Zeke represents one of my favorite players on the slate and someone that I will be heavily invested in GPPs and highly considering for cash game as well. With the Dallas passing game non-existent combined with a lackluster Detroit Rush D, I think Zeke has a very high floor game with potential for a breakout spot. Zeke is averaging over 80% of the rushing workload for the Cowboys along with averaging 21% of the target share through the first 3 games (about 6 targets a game). We know Zeke is good to get fed the ball around 20 times per game and with his targets increasing by week (4, 6, and 8), I like him to accumulate a ton of yards with a very possible 2 TD upside.
  • Giovani Bernard vs. ATL ($6,300): With Mixon out I really don’t know how we can avoid this play in both cash games and GPPs. We know how the Falcons defense operates which is funneling targets and attempts to RBs in the middle of the field and I expect that approach this week as well. Through the first 3 games, Atlanta has given up an average of 167 scrimmage yards per game to RBs (yes one of those was Kamara), but it seems this spot sets up too well for Bernard. He will be “good chalk” in my opinion.
  • Leonard Fournette vs. NYJ ($7,000): Fournette makes for an interesting play this week, assuming of course that’s healthy (which we won’t know possibly until late Saturday or Sunday) as he comes in after missing 2 games to a fairly decent spot. Fournette is more or less match up proof in my opinion but is facing a rather average Jets Run defense while he’s behind a strong O-Line that ranks 7th in yards per carry this year. The Jets rank 22nd in DVP (Defense vs. Position) for RB1 and they haven’t faced the strongest guys (Kerryon/Blount, Drake, Hyde) and I think Fournette can exploit them pretty easily.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Corey Davis vs. PHI ($5,300): I told you above I would go back to Corey Davis because I’m not only a sucker but if I miss out I’ll be pissed. He is facing the Philly defense who is dead last against WR1s this year (giving up an average of almost 22 DK Points per game. Davis has not been efficient but was peppered with targets for the first 2 weeks before facing a brutal Jags defense last week. With Mariota’s apparent inability to throw deep I assume Davis will be good for lots of targets and yards after the catch this week.
  • Deandre Hopkins vs. IND ($8,400): I don’t play Hopkins very often as I think he’s normally overpriced and often gets shadow coverage from top CBs. However, this week I think he’s a must play against a weak secondary on top of the fact that Hopkins is averaging around 11 targets a game, which is good for a 31% target share. It’s always risky taking a guy this high priced because to pay off the 3x value, he needs to score 25+ DK Points, but in a spot where the game could be higher scoring than people think, I like him as a core GPP play.
  • Larry Fitzgerald vs. SEA ($5,000): It’s weird to think of someone like Fitz as a riskier play since he’s been such a stud his whole career, but with this Cardinals team you never know. I’m hoping (risking) that with Rosen at the helm now, Fitz can find the same success that Allen Robinson (10 catches on 14 targets for 83 yards) and Emmanuel Sanders (10 catches on 11 targets for 135 yards and a TD) did against the very shaky Seattle defense. Fitz is very low priced, and probably rightfully so, but he’s averaging around 6 targets so if he sees 6-8 maybe this week I think he’ll have a solid performance.

GPP Tight Ends

  • Rob Gronkowski vs. MIA ($7,000): Gronk is matchup proof and just has not exploded yet this year. I think this is a spot where the Patriots reassert their dominance and Gronk sees to be a keen part of that. Gronk has only seen 4 and 5 targets the last 2 weeks, but last week he was on the field for 100% of the Pats 48 offensive snaps and with Edelman out another week, Hogan lost in space, and the addition of Josh Gordon on the field this week, I think Gronk is an ultimate smash spot. He’ll be one of my highest owned players on the slate for sure.
  • Jimmy Graham vs. BUF ($4,500): There are few guys I get as wrong as Jimmy Graham week after week so play at your own risk, but I think he sets up well with a stack with him/Rodgers/Cobb this week. Despite his normal lackluster performance, Graham is averaging about 6.3 targets a game thus far but has no TDs and averaging less than 1 RZ target per game. Still, he’s capturing a 15.7% target share in the offense and with Davante Adams likely being shadowed by Tre’Davious White, I like Graham to get more involved.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Bears vs. TB ($2,600): I expect this D to be the mega chalk this week and probably for good reason. Yes, FitzMAGIC has thrown for over 400 yards each of his first 3 games, but we saw last week just how many bad decisions he can make and how lackluster the Tampa Bay O-Line performs. The Bucs have the 32nd ranked run offense per DVOA, while the bears are 4th in DVOA vs. the run, while ranking 5th in yards allowed per carry. I think Fitz will get sacked all over the place making the Bears not only a strong and cheap option but with the opportunity for a large amount of turnovers.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Andy Dalton vs. ATL ($5,400)
  • Deshaun Watson vs. IND ($6,300)
  • Matt Ryan vs. CIN ($6,100)

Cash Running Backs

  • Giovani Bernard vs. ATL ($6,300)
  • Alvin Kamara vs. NYG ($9,600)
  • Ezekiel Elliott vs. DET ($7,700)
  • Saquon Barkley vs. NO ($8,100)
  • Sony Michel vs. MIA ($4,500)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Sterling Shepard vs. NO ($4,900)
  • Tyler Boyd vs. ATL ($4,600)
  • Randall Cobb vs. BUF ($5,100)
  • DeAndre Hopkins vs. IND ($8,400)
  • Allen Robinson vs. TB ($5,900)

Cash Tight Ends

  • David Njoku vs. OAK ($3,200)
  • Eric Ebron (if Doyle is out) vs. PHI ($3,600)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Bears vs. TB ($2,600)
  • Chargers vs. SF ($3,900)

 

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Drew Brees 15%
  • Baker Mayfield 10%

Running Back

  • Alvin Kamara 30%
  • Melvin Gordon 25%
  • Giovani Bernard 20%

Wide Receiver

  • Odell Beckham Jr. 20%
  • Tyler Boyd 18%
  • Michael Thomas 17%
  • Julio Jones 15%
  • Will Fuller 13%

Tight End

  • Rob Gronkowski 15%
  • Zach Ertz 10%
  • Jack Doyle/Eric Ebron 7%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Jaguars 15%
  • Bears 10%

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