Week 3 DraftKings Picks and Preview

ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCHUPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY

In the future, I will employ and write about custom metrics I use, DVOA ranks, etc; however, with this being Week 1 and the turnover year to year, those aren’t very statistically relevant till around Week 4.

Key Resources I use every week that you should too:

  1. Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter)
  2. FanShareSports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
  3. FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
  4. DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
  5. Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
  6. Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
  7. Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning

Week 2 Recap

Week 2 was again action-packed as we saw Mahomes go off and continue to GOAT hard as he threw 6 more TDs, no picks, and now has 10 TDs for the season. Apparently FitzMAGIC is still the truth (and if you haven’t seen his postgame attire, go do so immediately) as he continues his hot streak, and lastly, I will continue to chase Njoku points all year (thank god he’s not on the main slate this week). Overall, I think what we can take away thus far are the following: Chiefs offense is hot FIRE while their defense sucks, the Bills are the worst team I’ve seen in years, Sam Bradford is one of the worst QBs I’ve seen in years, the Texans are just as overrated as I thought, and the Steelers can always be locked in for big fantasy scoring when they play at home (except for Antonio Brown this week). Personally, I played many more H2H games than I have before and faired decently, winning 16/23 (70%), but still made a mistake or 2 that kept from a clean sweep and kept from cashing in all single entry double ups. Below let’s check out my good and bad…

The Good

  1. I said I would be massively overweight Melvin Gordon due to his potential for a 3 TD game… and we got it. His volume alone is reliable week after week until we see otherwise, in my opinion.
  2. Second week in a row we nailed the QBs; I didn’t play Mahomes, but I did play both Big Ben and Deshaun Watson in all my GPPs and they both hit 5x and 4x value, respectively.
  3. I loved the spot for Golladay as he may quickly become the 1st or 2nd most targeted in the offense. Golladay has seen 12 and 9 targets in the first 2 games and has converted those to 21.4 points in Week 1 and 20.9 points in Week 2.

The Bad

  1. I thought Antonio Brown was in a smash spot. He did not smash. Ben overthrew him and ended up throwing to the non-doubled covered JuJu Smith-Schuster. It’s not like AB dropped a 5-point game but 17 targets and only 15.7 points? Not good.
  2. I felt good about Cobb as I thought Adams would be shadowed by Rhodes… one of those was right as Adams was shadowed yet still saw targets and scored and Cobb… didn’t.
  3. I’m not really sure why Tyrod won’t throw to Njoku but you better believe I’ll be losing money on him every week if he’s around 3k… frustrating as I believe Njoku is one of the most athletic guys on the roster.

Matchups I Like This Week:

  • Saints at Falcons: I don’t think this game will be overlooked by any means but most of the industry will attack the 49ers/Chiefs game and stack up Mahomes with Watkins/Hill/Kelce and maybe run it back with Breida/Jimmy G/Kittle, etc. This game still sits at an O/U of 53.5 as of this writing and we’ve seen the first 2 weeks how dominant Brees can be (Michael Thomas, oh my) and with the depleted Falcons defense and the Saints defense starting off slow, I think this has shootout potential. Looking at pace of play by both teams, I think this will be fast moving and yield a lot of points. Brees’ price is also much too low at $6,400 and I’m not entirely sure why as Thomas and Kamara are two of the highest on the slate… Through the first 2 games, albeit a very small sample size, the Saints are averaging 93.8 DK Points given up. Of those 93.8, 28.4 are coming from QBs (skewed a little bit by the FitzMAGIC blow up Week 1) and 43.3 to WRs. I like stacking this game.
    • Saints I Like: Brees (Cash/GPP), Thomas (Cash/GPP), Kamara (GPP), Ginn (GPP)
    • Falcons I Like: Ryan (Cash/GPP), Julio (Cash/GPP), Sanu (GPP flier)
  • Bengals at Panthers: I think there is some chalk in this game as Newton at a very low $6,000 should be owned along with C Mac and on the other side Tyler Boyd who has shown great potential the last 2 games and is a measly $3,700 this week. I love a stack of Cam/Funchess/C Mac and running back with Gio Bernard since Mixon is out, Boyd, and A.J. Green for GPPs as well. Cincy has given up an average of 15.3 DK Points to TEs so far and I probably won’t get there but Ian Thomas could be an intriguing low-owned pivot. Thomas only saw 3 targets last week but did run 45 pass routes, which is a ton.
    • Bengals I Like: Gio (Cash/GPP), Boyd (GPP), Green (GPP)
    • Panthers I Like: Cam (Cash/GPP), C Mac (Cash/GPP), Funchess (Cash/GPP), Thomas (GPP flier)

Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest

WR WR Pos. DraftKings Price CB Matchup Rank
Nelson Agholor WR1/Slot $ 6,100 Kenny Moore II 1
Odell Beckham WR1 $ 8,200 Jonathan Joseph 1
T.Y. Hilton WR1 $ 6,700 Jalen Mills 1
DeAndre Hopkins WR1 $8,300 Janoris Jenkins 2
Tyler Boyd WR2 $ 3,700 Captain Munnerlyn 2
Allen Robinson WR1 $ 5,400 Jamar Taylor 2
Julio Jones* WR1 $ 7,900 Marshon Lattimore 3
Will Fuller WR2 $ 5,900 Eli Apple 3
Ted Ginn WR2 $ 4,700 Desmond Trufant 3
Robert Woods WR2 $ 5,100 Casey Hayward 4
Stefon Diggs WR2 $ 7,700 Tre’Davious White 4
Corey Davis WR1 $ 4,400 A.J. Bouye 5
Devin Funchess WR1 $ 5,000 William Jackson 5

 

-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage

GPP Plays

GPP Quarterbacks

  • Drew Brees vs. ATL ($6,400): I said above I’m confused about Brees’ price this week as he has two of the most explosive players in the league in Kamara and Thomas and is facing a rather weakened Atlanta defense. In his last 4 games against the Falcons, Brees has thrown for over 1,000 yards combined (1,236) and 8 TDs. I think the Saints come out firing after getting upset by the Bucs and barely beating the Browns last week. I like Brees in both GPP and cash this week.
  • Cam Newton vs. CIN ($6,000): I think the Cincinnati D might be slightly underrated but when you have Marvin Lewis as your coach, you can never be too sure. I love this spot for Cam as I think he’s way under priced and I have him as my #1 positional value rank, my 3rd overall rank on the slate, all positions, and 9th in my overall points projection. He’s only 12% of your salary and someone who I’m going to try to pair heavily with C Mac as well as game stack with Funchess. This game has high scoring potential for sure.

GPP Running Backs

  • Saquon Barkley vs. HOU ($7,600): Playing any Giants player is always risky because they suck, have arguably the worst O-Line in the league, and Eli Manning at the helm. However, Barkley has shown he can succeed in spite of all of that as he caught FOURTEEN balls last week against the Cowboys. I’m not saying it’ll be even close to that but if Manning is going to go to the Alex Smith check-down method, and he clearly is as Barkley already has 22 targets this season, then I think this makes for a rather high floor.
  • Kareem Hunt vs. SF ($6,000): Keeping with the theme of mispricing, who knows what happened with this one. Yes, Hunt hasn’t been targeted like he should, but I love this play, probably GPP only, as a way to maybe get a lower owned part of this hot fire Chiefs offense. Hunt has been on the field for 70% of the team’s snaps thus far and still has a touch percentage of around 38%. No, he hasn’t been dominant but if the Chiefs get up in this game, which I expect they will, I see a good amount of work in line for Hunt.
  • Kenyan Drake vs. OAK ($5,600): This is definitely a GPP only play but I like Drake in this spot. Is the Dolphins offense particularly good? No. But, Drake has been in on 67% of the team’s snaps thus far, is getting about 41% of the rush attempts, and is facing a miserable defense that is the Oakland Raiders. There’s always the chance that 80-year-old Frank Gore leeches touches and possible TDs, but I think Drake is solidified as the lead guy and like his potential ceiling here.

GPP Wide Receivers

  • Corey Davis vs. JAX ($4,400): Yes, I am aware that the Jacksonville defense is incredible and have the ability to shut down just about everyone. However, the volume that Davis is getting makes this a fantastic play; add on the extreme discount we’re getting and I’m heavily considering Davis as a cash play. Through 2 weeks, Davis is getting 35% of the team’s targets, which includes 3 RedZone targets thus far. With Walker out, Davis is the clear workhorse for this offense in the passing game and I expect that this week as the Titans will most likely need to be throwing most of the game.
  • Nelson Agholor vs. IND ($6,100): Agholor is about to be some serious chalk, but this is definitely an example of “good” chalk as I have no idea who Wentz is going to throw to besides him and Ertz. A very depleted offense and a great spot, since the Indy secondary is awful, makes for a very high floor, in my opinion, for Agholor. He’s gotten about 27% of the team’s targets so far and an Indy defense that has given up an average of 21 DK Points to WR1’s through 2 weeks. Agholor should be a smash cash and GPP play.
  • T.Y. Hilton vs. PHI ($6,700): **Pending injury; wasn’t practicing as of Thursday** Now if Hilton does in fact play, I think this is a great spot. Indy will most likely be down and with thin WR options, Hilton is seeing a ton of targets (22 so far, with 2 TDs) and I think Hilton can roast Jalen Mills. It’s a concern with how much lower Luck’s ADOT is this year, but aside from maybe Doyle, I expect Hilton to be peppered all game with targets.
  • John Brown vs. DEN ($4,800): A GPP only play for me but I think this could be a sneaky sub 5% WR play. Per @JMToWin, whom I give credit to for this one, the Broncos have a solid defense but have gotten burned up the middle (especially deep middle) thus far this season and that’s where Brown can excel. He says about 25% of the team’s targets and I don’t expect him to draw the attention of Chris Harris, whom I assume will try to shut down Crabtree. I think taking 10% or so of Brown is a great risk/reward scenario with a low floor, yes, but a high ceiling as well.

GPP Tight Ends

  • Jordan Reed vs. GB ($5,400): This play is twofold: 1) The Packers defense sucks and 2) we only have a finite time until Reed gets his 87th concussion of his career and is subsequently out for most of the year. With Alex Smith running things, his primary targets will be close ADOT receivers, i.e. Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. He has 13 targets thus far this season, a TD, is getting 18% of the targets, and facing the 2nd worst team covering TEs (GB is 31st in DVP).
  • George Kittle vs. KC ($4,500): I’m willing to go back to the well and get hurt by Kittle for the 3rd straight week. Maybe after letting everyone down last week after being mega-chalk he’ll be a little less owned? Kittle has 13 targets thus far and we remember Week 1 he dropped a few balls, including one that was probably a 70+ yard score. The KC defense is awful with just about no secondary and since I expect the 49ers to be down, Jimmy G. has got to throw the ball and targets should be fed to Kittle.

GPP Defense/Special Teams

  • Dolphins vs. OAK ($2,700): If you don’t want to pay up for the massively priced Vikings this week ($4,300), I like the Dolphins D. Oakland, like I said above, sucks and we know that Carr loves throwing picks. The Dolphins will only cost you about 5.4% of your salary and gives a lot of space to pay up at RB/WR with high turnover potential.

Cash Game Plays

Cash Quarterbacks

  • Cam Newton vs. CIN ($6,000)
  • Drew Brees vs. ATL ($6,400)
  • Matt Ryan vs. NO ($5,700)

Cash Running Backs

  • Corey Clement vs. IND ($4,300) ←←← MAKE SURE AJAYI/SPROLES ARE OUT
  • Christian McCaffrey vs. CIN ($7,800)
  • Giovani Bernard vs. CAR ($5,900)
  • Saquon Barkley vs. HOU ($7,600)
  • Chris Thompson vs. GB ($6,300)

Cash Wide Receivers

  • Corey Davis vs. JAX ($4,400)
  • Julio Jones vs. NO ($7,900)
  • Nelson Agholor vs. IND ($6,100)
  • Allen Robinson vs. ARI ($5,400)

Cash Tight Ends

  • Jordon Reed vs. GB ($5,400)
  • Jack Doyle vs. PHI ($4,000)
  • Evan Engram vs. HOU ($4,300)

Cash Defense/Special Teams

  • Texans vs. NYG ($2,800)
  • Eagles vs. IND ($3,000)

 

Expected Highest Owned per Position

Quarterback

  • Patrick Mahomes 15%
  • Drew Brees 10%

Running Back

  • Todd Gurley 25%
  • Alvin Kamara 20%
  • Corey Clement 18%
  • Christian McCaffrey 15%

Wide Receiver

  • Michael Thomas 35%
  • Tyreek Hill 25%
  • Julio Jones 25%
  • DeAndre Hopkins 18%
  • Nelson Agholor 15%

Tight End

  • Travis Kelce 15%
  • George Kittle 10%
  • Jack Doyle 8%

Defense/Special Teams

  • Vikings 20%
  • Bears 15%

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