ALL INFO PROVIDED AND PLAYERS, MATCH-UPS, ETC. ARE FOR SUNDAY MAIN SLATE ONLY
In the future, I will employ and write about custom metrics I use, DVOA ranks, etc; however, with this being Week 1 and the turnover year to year, those aren’t very statistically relevant till around Week 4.
Key Resources I use every week that you should too:
- Oneweekseason.com – Incredible Matchup by Matchup analysis and ownership (@JmToWin on Twitter)
- Fansharesports.com – Curates all touting, articles, videos, podcasts, etc. in the DFS industry and provides very accurate ownership projections (@FanShareSports on Twitter)
- FantasyGolfInsider.com – Give great WR/CB matchups, Jeff and Zach give great plays for both GPPs and Cash games (@FantasyGolfers on Twitter)
- DFSOnDemand.com – Rick makes a weekly video and goes position by position with key stats and players he likes (@dfsondemand on Twitter)
- Pat Mayo – Follow him on Twitter and listen to/read his content… he’s the GOAT (@ThePME on Twitter)
- Adam Levitan – Follow him on Twitter for all the most up to date news, snap rates, routes run, and his solo podcast is informational/awesome (@AdamLevitan on Twitter)
- Shouldn’t need to be said, but if you’re not following Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter on Twitter then I don’t know what to tell you… Turn their push notifications on for news during the week/Sunday morning
Week 1 Recap
This past week was a bizarre one in many ways: there was MASSIVE scoring which resulted in very high required scores to cash in double ups and head to heads while some unexpected game scripts had people like me scratching their heads (see Bucs winning 48-40 over the Saints in which Ryan FitzMAGIC went OFF for over 400 yards and 4 TDs). This past week was one that happens to me a few times in a year in which I know which plays are good, despite being chalk, and I over-analyzed, over thought, and overall got beat down because of it. I loved Kamara, I loved Conner, and I loved Rivers, yet I either neglected to play them at all or had very little exposure. It’s a good lesson, and one that needs to happen for you to improve at DFS: Not all chalk is bad chalk and at the end of the day, play the guys you think will do well and score, despite what others project, say, or tout. Well, onto Week 2 where we should be sure to overreact, assume that the game flows will stay the same, and lock in FitzMAGIC going over for over NINE times value again…
- Conner smashed with over 30 points, was on the field for around 92% of snaps, and seemed like a very viable (albeit still not as good) for Bell
- Rivers did well but man… what could have been. If there hadn’t been 5+ dropped balls, Rivers easily goes for 500 yards and 3+ TDs… still went for 32.96 points and 5x value.
- We knew Alex Smith loved check downs but man, 4.0 ADOT this past week. For those not familiar, Average Depth of Target (ADOT) shows just what it says and 4.0 is REALLY low; however, this is beneficial for a pass-catching RB like Thompson, despite the massive volume that Peterson was getting; Thompson went 5x value.
- Not sure why Chris Hogan only had 5 targets for one reception while facing such a shitty secondary, but alas, he was a let down in what I thought was a smash spot. This week he gets the likes of Ramsey, Bouye, and company… fun
- Royce Freeman would have had a much better game I think if Lindsay hadn’t got that early TD which seemed to stall momentum. I thought Freeman would be the for sure lead bell-cow back, but if he’s going to see 0 targets week after week that is worrisome
- Taking 100% Fournette was looking good as he started off the game hot but an injury that took him out for the rest of the game was disheartening to say the least…
Matchups I Like This Week:
- Chiefs at Steelers: Should be shootout, Ben’s good at home, Chiefs secondary blows
- Panthers at Falcons: I like this as a sneaky game stack as the Falcons just lost Keanu Neal at safety and their stud linebacker Deion Jones, which should open up space for Cam/C Mac/Funchess; if Sarkisian can get his head out of his ass and use Julio correctly, Julio should be able to crush this defense as well
- Browns at Saints: I expect somewhat of a rebound for the Saints D but I still think Landry could see 10+ targets again; the combo of Brees/Kamara/Thomas should obliterate the Browns secondary as well
- Lions at 49ers: Riskier game stack but I don’t see Stafford throwing 4 picks again, especially against the weak, weak secondary of the 49ers; if Goodwin is healthy, he might be shadowed by Slay but Garcon and Kittle stand to benefit; on the Lions side, Golladay looked like a stud on Monday and him and Jones should be able to exploit the 49ers deep
Key WR/CB Matchups: 1 to 5 with 1 being easiest and 5 being hardest
-Notes about the above: A “*” means likely to see shadow coverage; these are predicted CB coverage
|WR||WR Pos.||DK Price||CB||Matchup Rank|
|DeAndre Hopkins||WR1||$ 8,000||Malcolm Butler||1|
|Nelson Agholor||WR2/Slot||$ 6,100||Vernon Hargreaves||1|
|Jarvis Landry||WR1||$ 6,300||Patrick Robinson||1|
|Antonio Brown||WR1||$ 8,800||Steven Nelson||2|
|Demaryius Thomas||WR1||$ 5,600||Gareon Conley||2|
|Robby Anderson||WR1||$ 5,400||Xavien Howard||3|
|Kenny Golladay||WR3||$ 4,800||Richard Sherman||3|
|Kenny Stills||WR1||$ 5,700||Trumaine Johnson||3|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster||WR2||$ 6,400||Kendall Fuller||2|
|Davante Adams*||WR1||$ 6,800||Xavier Rhodes||5|
|Randall Cobb||WR2||$ 4,600||Mackensie Alexander||4|
|Brandin Cooks||WR1||$ 6,100||Jamar Taylor||2|
- Ben Roethlisberger vs. KC ($7,200): I have Ben projected for the 2nd highest QB points for the week (behind Brees) as he normally excels in a bounce back spot (3 picks last week). I don’t worry much at all about his “elbow injury” because Big Ben is not only a tough dude but over the last several years he always has some nagging injury and almost always plays. The Chiefs secondary competes with the Texans and 49ers for worst in the league and I expect Ben to exploit it with ease
- Deshaun Watson vs. TEN ($6,300): Watson showed some rust last week, but I expect a full bounce back this week. Watson is my 4th ranked points projection for QBs as well as my 4th Value rank in QBs and 8th ranked value for the entire slate, all positions. I expect Watson to feed Hopkins, Fuller if he’s healthy, and maybe target Ryan Griffin as well.
GPP Running Backs
- Rex Burkhead/James White vs. JAX ($4,400/$4,500): I’m putting both on here because if Rex stays out with a concussion I think White’s volume skyrockets and makes him one of the most valuable on the slate; now if Rex passes concussion protocol it gets more tricky but I think I would play him over White and maybe on a few GPP teams play both and target expensive WR with them (very risky)
- Melvin Gordon vs. BUF ($7,400): Gordon is an auto cash play for me and I will target heavily in GPPs as well; the spot seems too good, Buffalo’s defense is terrible, and this seems like the type of game where he could rush for 2 TDs, 100+ yards, and tack on a reception TD as well; via PFF’s Scott Barrett’s method, I have Gordon with a very high Weighted Opportunity score and expect this to increase even more this week
- Alvin Kamara CLE vs. ($9,500): Well in the interest of not overthinking things again, Kamara has shown that he doesn’t need 30 carries (had 8 I believe last week along with 12 targets) to smash. He’s the most expensive on the slate, ranks #1 in my projected points at RB and overall and he has the makings of another 30-40 or more point game; he’ll be chalk most likely but the spot seems too good; I would pair with Brees too.
GPP Wide Receivers
- Jarvis Landry vs. NO ($6,300): All the hype is on Josh Gordon when it comes to the Browns, but I think last week Landry solidified himself as the #1 and Hue Jackson clearly likes him in that position as well. Landry saw 15 targets from Tyrod and I could easily see 10-12 again this week; I think the Saints D will do much better than last week but they clearly are exploitable and in a game I expect the Browns to be trailing, I love Landry, especially considering there’s a good chance Gordon is shadowed by Lattimore.
- Antonio Brown vs. KC ($8,800): Similar to Melvin Gordon, this spot is just too good. I will be playing Brown in cash and LOVE him in GPPs this week. I know this isn’t a hot take since he’s the best receiver in the league, but as pointed by @DFSOnDemand, Brown is almost never sub 9K salary and with Ben at home and Brown garnering 16 targets last game, 9 receptions and a TD and not even “crushing,” this spot is sublime.
- Randall Cobb vs. MIN ($4,600): IF RODGERS IS OUT, THIS IS A FULL FADE. I like Cobb a lot this week as a value play at a cheap price, a pivot off of Adams who will likely be shadowed by Rhodes, and someone who’s only using 9.2% of your salary. We saw Cobb do well last week as he caught 9/10 targets, including that long TD and although his ownership will undoubtedly will go up since everyone watched the Primetime game, Cobb is too good of value to me to pass up.
- Kenny Golladay vs. SF ($4,800): I mentioned above that with Golladay’s great game on Monday, I expect a little bump in ownership but he’s such a good deep threat and is facing a very weak secondary. He garnered 12 targets last week, catching 7 of them for 114 yards, which was a fantastic stat line. Once again, he’s a low price and although listed as a WR3, I think he performs like a mid to high end WR2.
GPP Tight Ends
- David Njoku vs. NO ($3,000): I can tell Njoku is the guy I’m going to be chasing all year and he’ll probably hurt me way more than he succeeds but I’ll take that. He is a freak athlete and is facing a terrible secondary, ranks 4th in my value model for TEs and let’s face it, he only needs around 10 points to have 3x+ value. He only caught 3 balls last week but did garner 7 targets, which is a positive sign to me. Take him in 10-15%?
- Zach Ertz vs. TB ($6,100): After a ho-hum game in which Ertz caught 5/10 targets for 48 yards, I expect people to kind of forget about him, especially with Foles starting again. As shown last week, Tampa Bay’s defense sucks and I expect a decent bounce back game for Ertz in which you save $900 from Gronk and still what I project is the 2nd highest scoring TE and a Top 10 value at the position as well.
GPP Defense/Special Teams
- Broncos vs. OAK ($3,200): If you don’t want to take the chalk Rams DST or Chargers DST, I like the Broncos a lot this week. They have a strong run D, stud corners, and as just showcased on MNF, Carr really loves to throw those picks and make bad decisions. This has the potential to be a weird road game, but I think the Raiders are terrible and are good for turnovers.
Cash Game Plays
- Case Keenum vs. OAK ($5,800)
- Drew Brees vs. CLE ($7,200)
- Deshaun Watson vs. TEN ($6,300)
Cash Running Backs
- Alvin Kamara vs. CLE ($9,500)
- Christian McCaffrey vs. ATL ($7,000)
- Melvin Gordon vs. BUF ($7,400)
- T.J. Yeldon vs. NE ($5,600) ←←← IF FOURNETTE IS OUT
- James White vs. JAX ($4,500) ←←← IF BURKHEAD IS OUT
Cash Wide Receivers
- Antonio Brown vs. CLE ($8,800)
- Demaryius Thomas vs. IND ($5,600)
- Jarvis Landry vs. PIT ($6,300)
- Emmanuel Sanders vs. SEA ($6,200)
- Corey Davis vs. HOU ($5,100) ←←← MONITOR HIS/MARIOTA’S INJURY
Cash Tight Ends
- Rob Gronkowski vs. JAX ($7,000)
- Jack Doyle vs. WAS ($4,000)
- George Kittle vs. DET ($3,800)
Cash Defense/Special Teams
- Broncos vs. OAK ($3,200)
- Redskins vs. IND ($2,700)
Expected Highest Owned per Position
- Drew Brees 15%
- Patrick Mahomes 10-12%%
- Ben Roethlisberger 10%
- Alvin Kamra 28%
- James Conner 27%
- Melvin Gordon 18%
- Todd Gurley 15%
- Alfred Morris 12%
- Antonio Brown 20%
- Tyreek Hill 20%
- Michael Thomas 20%
- Quincy Enunwa 15%
- Emmanuel Sanders 20%
- George Kittle 17%
- Jared Cook 15%
- Jack Doyle 12%
- Chargers 15%
- Rams 10%