2018 BMW Championship DraftKings Preview

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Go follow BigBucksNoWhammie (@BPSnow11 on Twitter) for an AMAZING course preview. As NFL season comes in these previews will be much lighter and I will have heavy focus on football. 

Also I am playing a much lighter week with maybe 5-10 entries max so I might go 100% on a few guys, as mentioned below, just for differentiation purposes.

Very mixed week for me as I ended up slightly down due to cash getting crushed by a ZJ MC and with a field of only 100 and 70 making the cut, we can’t really afford to have a missed cut on our teams. I had 1 or 2 solid bullets going into Sunday but to the surprise of no one Ancer kind of faltered and in what seems to be an increasingly normal thing for me, we saw a chalk Hideki charge up on Sunday and send many of my teams down the leaderboard. Since the British Open I seemingly fade the right chalk for 3 of 4 rounds only to see these guys charge up and finish T5. Annoying but we persevere. Onto a much more brief post on the BMW Championship:

The Good

  1. Using that Ancer sleeper was nice! Wish he could have closed it out…
  2. I mentioned I like going back to guys who screw us over and we saw Rose finish T2
  3. That fade of Horschel was great with a WD mid first round

The Bad

  1. Didn’t think Bryson would be THAT dominant again… good on him and I had none
  2. Thought ZJ and Na were safe cash game plays for the week… they were not
  3. My streak of not getting Rahm right continued as he looked good after R1 then nothing…

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

  • SG: BS
  • SG: APP (Custom Blend of 125-150, 200+)
  • BoB%
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: OTT
  • Scrambling

Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):

9K and Above:

Justin Thomas ($10,700): It feels like we’re getting a serious discount on one of the best players in the world when he’s now almost $1000 less than DJ. There’s not much of a need to really tout JT’s stats but he’s 4th SG: T2G, 3rd in the SG: APP Blend, 6th in SG: BS, and 10th in BoB%. I’ve mentioned this before but like DJ, it seems like if JT doesn’t win or finish Top 3 people just kind of go “ho hum” but his last 4 finishes are a 24th, 6th, 8th, and a win (WGC Bridgestone). He’s stayed elite and I might go 70-80% or even all in since I’m playing well less exposure this week (I almost never go all in…).

Tony Finau ($9,500): I’m a big Finau fan, so it continues to be disappointing to watch him not get it done; however, he is by no means choking with the best in the world and he continues to be at the top of the leaderboards week in and week out. His last 6 starts: 4th, 2nd, 42nd, 10th, 37th, and 9th. I would say that’s pretty solid and if take a walk down narrative street, he may be trying to play for the final Ryder Cup spot this week… He’s 4th in BoB%, 10th in SG: OTT, 13th in SG: T2G, and although he’s chalk I want a ton of Finau and will probably go 60% or more.

Tiger Woods ($9,200): I will be rostering him.

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Patrick Cantlay ($8,500): Going to be chalk for sure but I don’t care since Cantlay is playing too well and albeit a longshot, MAYBE could get a Ryder Cup spot with a dominant performance (win). He’s 5th in SG: T2G, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, 4th in SG: BS, and 11th in SG: OTT. Cantlay has a 6th, 8th, and 12th in his last 5 starts, obviously all in strong fields, and continues to be somewhat in the Top 10 or Top 5 mix each week. He’s lost strokes putting the last 2 weeks including almost 3 strokes this past week and I believe if the putter can get hot or at least above average, he can contend. I’m considering going all in on him as well but undecided… at least 70%.

Kyle Stanley ($7,500): Consistently one of the better ball strikers, we all know he can be streaky and a bad putter so I’m looking for him to have at least an average putting week combined with no big numbers. In this field, Stanley is Top 20 in BoB%, SG: T2G, Bogey Avoidance, SG: BS, and SG: OTT. He finished 2nd several weeks ago and while he has the potential to be decently owned due to his price, I like him and will have around 40-50%.

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

CT Pan ($6,900): I think the entire DFS community is wondering why CT is still this low of a price but alas here we are and I might go all in on him… Pan is MASSIVELY undervalued as he ranks Top 20 in every major category I’m looking at this week except for SG: OTT (24th) and he clearly has the recent results to back up these stats. He’s the 3rd guy I might go all in on since I’m not playing too many lineups since CT has potential to be low priced chalk, and rightfully so.

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Justin Thomas

2) Tony Finau

3) CT Pan

4) Cameron Smith

Fades for Me

Just some ownership fades this week: Fleetwood, Bryson (scary), Hideki, Casey, RCB, Brooks

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 55% Recent Form, and 5% Course History

  1. Brooks Koepka
  2. Justin Thomas
  3. Bryson Dechambeau
  4. Dustin Johnson
  5. Francesco Molinari
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Rose
  8. Patrick Cantlay
  9. Adam Scott
  10. Tiger MF Woods

Predicted Chalk

  • Tony Finau – 25%
  • Tommy Fleetwood – 23%
  • Patrick Cantlay – 20%
  • Justin Rose – 20%
  • Bryson Dechambeau – 18%

 

Follow me on Twitter @sscherman and follow @AmateurHour_Pod too for picks, podcasts with FIRE guests, and weekly picks to win!!

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