All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
Besides Tiger upsetting me over and over with his HORRIFIC putting and Rose/Cink doing me pretty dirty, last week was a decent tournament and a break even week for me. Cash games got torched by Rose and Cink as silly me rostered Rose after he hadn’t missed a cut all year and managed to have the 2nd worst putting performance in his last 10 years… OH. Bryson/Tony lineups saved me of getting smoked as I didn’t have any Billy Ho and if Keegan hadn’t decided to go FULL KEEGAN on Sunday I probably would have been decently net positive. So it goes and despite Bryson being a total ass, I just love it and love that he’s a killer in these big fields and never seems to be phased. We move onto the Dell Technologies and the greatest city in the world, but first, some good and bad from last week:
- Bryson set up well and has been playing very solid golf and helped save my week
- Fading guys like Rahm, Xander, Molinari definitely worked out in my favor
- Cantlay had another solid performance despite his usual lackluster putting
- I mentioned above about Rose but having 50% exposure to him in GPP and in all my cash lineups was not good… took him OAD too
- 50% Tiger was also disappointing as he didn’t make ANY PUTTS and a weak finish
- Putnam managed to torch a good amount of 6/6 lineups by finishing in last place by Sunday…
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: T2G
- SG: APP (Custom Blend of 200+, 150-175, etc.)
- SG: Par 5s
- SG: Putting Blend
- SG: OTT/Total Driving
- Bogey Avoidance
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Dustin Johnson ($11,600): As I’ve read around this week about who people like, what stats they’re looking for, etc. I agree with the general consensus that the difference between the 11k guys in DJ, JT, and Brooks is so razor thin that any one of them is a good play but we can’t take all 3 (unless you’re making maybe 150 lineups) due to being spread too thin. I will be rolling with DJ since he’s the best player in the world, his extreme price may keep A LITTLE ownership off of him, and we’ve seen what he can once he gets hot. I think it’s pretty remarkable that we haven’t seen DJ be that “dominant” the last few tournaments but his last 4 starts include a win, 3rd, 27th and 11th… he’s just that good. 50%.
Justin Rose ($9,300): Well Rose absolutely torched me last week but I’m a huge fan of taking guys after they have a terrible MC or bad week because it normally severely depresses ownership. We may not see that here as we all know how good Rose is and he’s a Top 5 player in the world but he hasn’t missed back to back cuts in who knows how long (I assume a few years) and he still ranks 12th in my model this week despite the MC. Rose is just about Top 20 in any stats I’m looking at this week with the exception of Scrambling; however, when you’re hitting a ton of greens and making putts (which he most certainly did not do last week), Scrambling is obviously less important. I think Rosey bounces back. 50% again.
Jon Rahm ($9,100): I’m almost never on Rahm but like Rose, I think he bounces back after a brutal week for him as he also hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts in quite some time. We all know Rahm is a headcase and can implode at any moment, but I love a spot like TPC Boston where the fairways are extremely wide and he can use his power. Rahm is 13th in the field in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: OTT/Total Driving, 7th in GIR%, and Top 30 in Bogey Avoidance, SG: BS, SG: Par 5s, and BoB%. I hope people are slightly off of him after his horrendous NORTHERN TRUST and Rahm can see a good putting week. In his only appearance here last year Rahm finished T4, so it’s 40-50% for me.
Tiger Woods ($9,700): I will be rostering him.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
Webb Simpson ($8,300): I think this price is much too low for a guy who’s proven he’s an elite player and can compete on the biggest stages. Webb ranks 13th in my power rankings as he comes in 7th in Bogey Avoidance, 25th in my SG: APP blend, 19th in my SG: Putting Blend, and 21st in GIR%. He faltered slightly last week but before that he stormed up to a T2 at the Wyndham, had a 19th at the PGA Championship, 24th at the WGC, and 12th at the British. His form stays hot and he’s really proven himself on the greens this year. Also, Webb has won this event before (2011) and finished Top 10 in 2014. I think I’ll aim for 25% or so.
Louis Ooshuizen ($7,800): Louis is a guy who I roster a lot and always has low ownership for some reason despite being a Top 40 player in the world. I’m still furious about his WD at the PGA which was quite costly, but he is 21st in my SG: Putting Blend this week along with 17th in SG: Par 5s, 19th in SG: Par 3s, and 11th in GIR%. I think at this price I can definitely see Louis finishing Top 20 or better and returning very solid value. I will probably have 20-25% which should be well over 2x the field.
Kevin Na ($7,400): Na has 2 straight Top 20 finishes as well as a win 5 tournaments ago and although he could get some solid buzz this week, I like him a lot. Na ranks 20th in Scrambling, 17th in SG: APP blend, 4th in the SG: Putting Blend, and 11th in BoB%. If he can have a solid score on the Par 5s I can definitely see him racking up DK Points as an elite birdie maker. Na’s 6th place finisher last year could prop up some ownership but I think at 25% or so we should be 2x the field.
Low Tier Options (Under 7K):
Kevin Tway ($6,600): Huge bomber who I expect to hopefully have sub 5% ownership. At this price you want Tway to get through the minor cut (should only be around 20 guys or so after Top 70 and ties) and make some birdies/eagles en route to maybe a Top 30 or Top 25 finish. Tway is Top 30 in the field in BoB%, DK Points, SG: Par 3s, SG: Par 5s, and SG: OTT/Total Driving. He’s also 17th in the SG: Putting Blend and coming off 3 Top 25 finishes in his last 4 starts. I will target around 15% and hopefully 3x the field.
Fliers (Take it or Leave it):
Abraham Ancer ($6,600): Has played very well this year and his stats back it up: 22nd in SG: T2G, 25th in Scrambling, 12th in SG: OTT/Total Driving, and 18th in SG: Par 5s. Of course, he always has the chance to shoot 80, hence a flier but I like him at 5-10%.
Whee Kim ($6,400): The field minimum price and a guy who can putt very well and ranks 6th this week out of the whole field in the SG: APP blend. He’s 36th in BoB% and has never played this course before so I would tread lightly but 5-7% is worth a shot and you’ll be well overweight the field.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays
1) Patrick Can’t Get Laid
2) Zach Johnson
3) Tony Finau
4) Gary Woodland
Fades for Me
Billy Horschel: Yes he’s playing great and yes he ranks decently high in my power rankings but this guy is about to possibly be 20-25% owned and we know how streaky he can be… mostly an ownership fade and I’d rather play Webb, Reed, or Louis over him.
Tommy Fleetwood: STRICTLY ownership. Only worry here is he is most certainly too cheap and could be the highest owned guy on the slate. That being said, he’s probably a great cash game play.
Hideki Matsuyama: Faded last week and it semi-worked out but again he is getting a ton of buzz for “being back” which is semi-true as his irons have been fantastic but I still never trust his putting and I like the options around him much better.
Adam Scott: Same reason as Horschel; if Scott doesn’t gain an insane like 8 strokes putting like he did last week where does he finish? Plus could easily be around 20% owned as well.
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, and 15% Course History
- Dustin Johnson
- Justin Thomas
- Adam Scott
- Brooks Koepka
- TIGER MF WOODS
- Jason Day
- Rory McIlroy
- Billy Horschel
- Tony Finau
- Bryson Dechambeau
- Patrick Can’t Get Laid
- Justin Rose
- Jon Rahm
- Webb Simpson
- Gary Woodland
- Kevin Na
- Jordan Spieth
- Brandt Snedker
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Aaron Wise
- Billy Horschel – 23%
- Tommy Fleetwood – 22%
- Adam Scott – 19%
- Patrick Cantlay – 18%
- Bryson Dechambeau – 18%
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