All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @fantasygolfers @sscherman

We got a weak field and as a result we had relatively week drama for most of the Wyndham this past week. We did get some on the back nine of Sunday, but when CT shanked his drive on 18 it was kind of settled for Brandt and we could move on. I had a pretty solid week as all my cash lineups hit pretty easily and with my highest exposure guy being Brandt, it was hard to not be profitable. I felt really good after his wizardly 59 but bad days from Jason Kokrak and Sam Ryder missing more than their fair share of 5-10 footers definitely kept me from a massive ROI week. We like the process though and are moving onto the first leg of the FedEx Cup series! Some good and bad from last week:

The Good

1. Having around 50-60% of my 25 lineups contain Brandt certainly was a differentiator especially because he was only around 8-10% owned depending on the contest…odd
2. Overall core was solid as Moore finished T6, Ryder and Kokrak made a few eagles, and obviously Sned was the winner
3. Low priced Hughes had a solid performance at his price ($6,800)

The Bad

1. Henley missing the cut by 1 certainly wasn’t good as I had about 30% of him…
2. Not owning Webb seemed like a fantastic decision until he fires a 63 to come T2… that certainly dropped a lot of my winnings and was frustrating behind belief
3. Speaking of guys charging, thanks a lot RCB and Suri who ALSO looked like good fades until Sunday…

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

• SG: BS (Ball Striking)
• SG: APP (Custom Blend)
• GIRs Gained
• SG: Short Game
• Fairways Gained
• SG: Putting Blend
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: Par 5s

Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):

9K and Above:

Tiger Woods ($10,100): As if I wouldn’t play him… we all saw what he did in a losing effort at the PGA Championship and if he keeps the driver mostly in the bag this week, which he certainly SHOULD, I like him to contend. I’m also not just blowing smoke up his ass (well I am), but he ranks #4 in power rankings and in terms of stats, 26^th in SG: T2G, 3^rd in my SG: APP blend, 15^th in Bogey Avoidance, 11^th in SG: Short Game, 5^th in DK Points Gained, and 3^rd in BoB%. I love him every week but especially here as he looks to contend to win the whole FedEx Cup. Oh yeah, his last 4 finishes are 2^nd, 31^st, 6^th and 4^th… I assume in order to be double the field I’ll need at least 40+%, which is more than fine with me.

Justin Rose ($9,900): 5^th in my stats model and the guy I believe sets up best for this course among the entire field. Rose ranks 20^th in SG: T2G, 8^th in Bogey Avoidance, 10^th in my SG: Putting Blend, 21^st in Fairways Gained, 6^th in SG: Short Game, and 8^th in DK Points Gained. Rose has not finished outside of the Top 25 since around April I believe and his last 5 starts has a 19^th, 2^nd, 9^th, 10^th, and 6^th, which includes 3 majors during that span. I’ll probably take Rose at 50+% depending on ownership and expect him to be my highest owned guy.

Jordan Spieth ($9,600): Thought I would add this 3^rd play in here to say I’m jumping back on Spieth. I think his putting is coming back and in my model for the week he ranks 12^th in my SG: Putting Blend, 9^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 30^th in SG: Short Game. I’m not saying he looks like elite 2015 Spieth but I still think he’ll be relatively low owned, so I’ll take a chance on him in GPPs… no cash for me though. ~25%?

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Zach Johnson ($8,700): I talked about this course setting up well for Rose and I see the same thing for ZJ this week, whom has been one of the more consistent players the last few months. ZJ has 6 straight Top 20s, which includes 3 majors and a WGC and his ability to hit most fairways and employ a stellar wedge game makes him a great set up for both GPPs and cash games this week. He ranks 7^th in Scrambling, 19^th in SG: Putting Blend, 6^th in SG: Short Game, and has played this course before, having finished T22 and T21 in 2014 and 2010, respectively. I will probably target approximately 25-30% and hope to double the field while also playing him in cash.

Stewart Cink ($7,500): Cink has been playing like a young 20 year old the last few months rather than his 45 year old self. This guy has been on a tear and I’m going to keep owning him until he lets me down. In his last 6 starts, Cink has THREE Top 5s which includes a 4^th at the PGA Championship and a T2 at the Travelers I believe. He’s 7^th in this field in SG: T2G, 22^nd in SG: BS, 17^th in Scrambling, and 13^th in DK Points Gained and has played this course before, finishing T15 twice and 38^th in 2008. I like Cink in all formats this week as I’ll target probably around 20-30% and most likely play him in cash.

Keegan Bradley ($7,000): I really hope Keegan doesn’t get talked up too much and get to a 15+% ownership range because no one wants chalk Keegan and it’ll more or less ensure a MC. One of the best ball strikers on tour, Keegan is 13^th in the field in SG: T2G, 21^st in Bogey Avoidance, 11^th in SG: BS, 18^th in Fairways Gained, and 28^th in SG: Par 5s. We all know his Achilles heel is his putter so if he can maybe just putt field average, I think he’ll easily pay off this too cheap price tag. I’m considering Keegan in cash which is terrifying but GPP wise I might go as high as 30% if necessary and possibly triple the field.

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Andrew Putnam ($6,600): Putnam is popping decently well in my model this week from a tremendous value standpoint (28^th in my Power Rankings compared to 82^nd ranked DK player and 83^rd in betting odds). At this price, remember, we’re looking for a made cut and maybe some more upside with even a Top 30 finish to provide massive value. Putnam ranks 15^th in Bogey Avoidance, 18^th in Fairways Gained, and 27^th in GIRs Gained. He struggles on Par 5s a little bit and definitely can get cold but at this price I think he’s worth maybe 7-10%, or maybe a little more, depending on ownership.

Fliers (Take it or Leave it):

Vaughn Taylor ($6,200): Has played decently here many years ago and is the minimum price; just a made cut would be huge value and Taylor is quite consistent for the most part.

Ryan Armour ($6,500): Has been playing great recently and despite being a huge bomber, he’s 12^th in this field in Fairways Gained and is a good scrambler (27^th in Scrambling). Could get up to around 5% so maybe 7-10% to be overweight or even out the field and put him in a lineup or two.

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Justin Rose

2) Zach Johnson

3) Stewart Cink

4) Ian Poulter

Fades for Me

Hideki Matsuyama: Getting a lot of talk of getting things back together and has potential to get quite chalk around 20% ownership. He not only is a weak putter but ranks 91^st in the field in Fairways Gained, 75^th in Scrambling, and 70^th in GIRs Gained.

Joel Dahmen: Pops quite highly in my model, as you’ll see below, but with his potential to be around 12-15% ownership, I don’t have much of an issue fading. He has great stats but those mostly come in weaker fields and this week he’s teeing it up against the best in the world.

Matt Kuchar: Obviously has not had his best stuff here but I think will garner some decent ownership due to his win here in 2010 and this being a course that sets up well for his style. Kuchar ranks 104^th in the field in SG: Par 5s, 97^th in BoB%, 79^th in SG: BS, and has missed 4 of his last 6 cuts. No thanks.

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 45% Key Stats, 50% Recent Form, and 5% Course History

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Justin Rose
3. Justin Thomas
4. TIGER MF WOODS
5. Brooks Koepka
6. Francesco Molinari
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Jon Rahm
9. Stewart Cink
10. Webb Simpson
11. Gary Woodland
12. Tommy Fleetwood
13. Joel Dahmen
14. Rafa Cabrera Bello
15. Ian Poulter
16. Jason Day
17. Tony Finau
18. Brandt Snedeker
19. Adam Scott
20. Kevin Na

Predicted Chalk

1. Tony Finau – 24%
2. Jason Day – 22%
3. Tiger Woods – 21%
4. Dustin Johnson – 20%
5. Justin Rose – 18%

 

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