All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
Well it certainly sucks that the majors are over the year and to make matters worse, the tournament this week is pretty boring and the field is far worse than we’ve seen in the last month or so. For a little bit of a recap and solid course preview, go to amateurhourgolfpod.com and check out what I posted on Monday for Sedgefield CC and the Wyndham. A quick recap, DraftKings wise, on the PGA Championship. I managed to get one lineup in the Top 50 of the $4 and if I maybe had RCB, Lowry, or Hatton, instead of Henley we could have been in line for some real good money…
- After seeing his performance at the WGC everyone seemed to go out on Tiger which resulted him in about 7-10% ownership across contests so having 25% or so was certainly a welcomed surprise this week and helped me with my best lineup
- Stewart Cink has been playing fantastic this year and I was more than glad to see him pop up in my model last week; I got him around 2% and he finished with a stud T4 at $6,700
- Gary Woodland: Was cool to see him leading after the first 2 rounds and even though I knew he wasn’t going to close it out he still held his own, finished at -10 (I believe) and got to witness utter greatness from Tiger; he was a solid, solid play at $7,000
- Dammit Rory… just dammit; he lost -3.2 Strokes on his approaches which seemed unlike him
- I’m just going to warn people when I play Paul Casey because my god I never get this guy right; I will be sure to update in the future so anyone who reads this can FADE; if Paul Casey finished T20 or better, we would have been in store for some BIG MONEY
- Bryson missing a 3-5 footer for par on 18 on Friday to MC definitely was a painful one…
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: BS (Ball Striking)
- SG: APP (Custom Blend)
- SG: Par 5s
- GIRs Gained
- Par 4 400-450
- Fairways Gained
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Brandt Snedeker ($10,400): Snedeker has had quite an up and down year in my opinion but if you throw out his epic collapse on Round 2 of the British Open he has some pretty solid recent form: 8th at the RBC Canadian, 3rd at the Greenbrier and he made the cut last week at the PGA Championship finishing T42. If you’re a course history guy, and I am from time to time, Sned has a 3rd, 2 Top 5s, and 8th place finish here which I think means he’s comfortable here. Sned is an elite Bermuda grass putter here which I think can differentiate some guys while he’s also Top 30 in BoB%, Top 30 in SG: T2G, Top 30 in Par 4s 400-450 yards, Top 30 in my SG: APP blend, 31st in SG: Par 5s, and 32nd in 3 Putt Avoidance. I like Sned to contend this week and will own him at probably 40-50% as he could get some serious buzz.
Ryan Moore ($9,000): Moore is another guy who I feel like has had an up and down year as I believe his normal elite putting has somewhat subsided this season. Always an elite striker of the ball, Moore is 21st in SG: T2G, 13th in Par 4s 400-450 yards, 14th in Fairways Gained, 17th in Good Drive%, and 23rd in my SG: APP blend. A former winner of this event, Moore also has a Top 10 in 2015 and T24 last year. He doesn’t have many elite finishes this year but has made his last 4 cuts and I will probably target 30-40% and use him as a viable cash option as well.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K): Note: I like Kirk in this range but so does everyone else, so although I’ll play him, he definitely is a bit of a serious chalk play this week.
Jason Kokrak ($7,900): The “Coat Rack” as I like to call him ranks 6th in my power rankings this week as he ranks 18th in SG: T2G, 7th in SG: BS, 6th in GIR%, 25th in Good Drive%, and 29th in BoB%. If Kokrak can just have an average or maybe slightly above average putting week I could see him finishing Top 10 or better and at this price, I think he’s a serious value play. He has 2 Top 20s in his last 2 starts as well as a T3 at the Greenbrier a few weeks ago. I am heavily considering playing Kokrak in cash but I’m not sure if I want the volatility or not; either way, I will target around 30% in GPPs, hoping he’s sub 12% owned.
Whee Kim ($7,400): Normally when I play Whee Kim he lets me down so I expect nothing different this week. Kim is known as an elite putter but actually ranks 7th in my SG: APP blend this week and 19th BoB%. His recent form is decent as well as he had a T2 finish at the RBC Canadian, another birdie fest, and a T16 at the John Deere, which also happens to be a birdie fest. If he can get his putter to be hot fire again, I like him as a contender for T15 or T10 finish. I expected 5-7% ownership so 15% or maybe a little more should easily double the field.
Bronson Burgoon ($7,400): If you’re looking for a stats guy, look no further. Burgoon ranks 11th in SG: T2G, 12th in SG: BS, 3rd in SG: Par 5s, and 20th in BoB%. Burgoon could just as easily shoot 85 as he could 65 but I like his fit for this course and I have seen him go -5 through the first 7 holes on more than one occasion. Burgoon’s recent form show exactly what I’m talking about: MC, MC, 2nd, 30th, 6th in his last 5 which shows if you’re willing to risk for the upside you can be rewarded. I expect he’ll be around 7-10% at most so I think 20% should easily 2x the field (hopefully).
Low Tier Options (Under 7K):
Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800): Hughes has really started to turn it around I think and weirdly enough ranks 18th this week in my overall model. In his last 5 starts Hughes has: MC, 8th, 60th, 16th, and 13th. This is by no means elite but at this price, you’re just looking for a guy to make the cut and maybe finish T30 to return solid value. Stats wise, Hughes ranks 18th in SG: T2G, 12th in Par 4 400-450 yards, 12th in SG: APP blend, 16th in SG: BS, 19th in GIR%, and 17th in BoB%. Very, very good but as you might guess, he normally sucks at putting. He could end up getting some buzz this week but I think no more than 12-15% MAX for a guy like this and maybe he’ll have a T20 or better finish.
Fliers (Take it or Leave it):
Arjun Atwal ($6,100): Almost the min price and has hilariously won here before (2010). He only has 10 recorded rounds I think but in the Euro Stats he ranks 6th in SG: APP, 11th in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Putts per GIR, and 33rd in SG: T2G. Literally no one will own him so I’ll risk a lineup or two and fully expect he comes DFL.
J.J. Henry ($6,300): Finished 16th here last year and actually has a very solid SG: T2G game (9th), along with 6th in GIR%, and 10th in SG: BS. Again, at a near min price like this for a guy who hits a ton of fairways and greens, it’s worth a maybe 5% flier for me.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays
1) Brandt Snedeker
2) Ryan Moore
3) Joaquin Niemann
4) Sam Ryder
Fades for Me
Rafa Cabrera Bello: His form has been elite lately, but he is certainly getting way too much buzz for me this week. If you look at his Euro tour stats, he ranks 122nd in Driving Accuracy and 160 in GIR%. If he misses the fairway he tends to struggle so that’s a fade for me.
Shane Lowry: Getting a ton of buzz and will get even more since he has the “make the FedEx playoffs” narrative behind him as well. His stats on the PGA TOUR look decent but when looking at his Euro stats he’s 99th in Driving Accuracy, 129th in GIR%, and 86th in Putts per GIR. Plus, at a possible 15+% ownership, I think that’s an easy fade.
Julian Suri: Hype is too real and he’s one of the worst ranked Par 4 scorers on the Euro Tour. He did finish Top 20 last week but before that has one Top 10 (a 2nd) which was on the Euro Tour at the Open de France, I believe. This kid is definitely good and his time will come but I’m not sure he’s ready yet.
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, and 15% Course History
- Henrik Stenson
- Webb Simpson
- Brandt Snedker
- Jason Kokrak
- Billy Horschel
- Rafa Cabrera Bello
- Shane Lowry
- Joaquin Niemann
- Harold Varner III
- Ryan Moore
- Sam Ryder
- Russell Henley
- Richy Werenski
- Abraham Ancer
- Daniel Berger
- Chris Kirk
- Bronson Burgoon
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Tyler Duncan
- Whee Kim
Kirk – 23%
Niemann – 21%
RCB – 20%
Harold Varner III – 20%
Webb Simpson – 18%
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