All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
Well this past week certainly went better than the previous and although I didn’t take down a GPP or a 5-figure win, net positive for the week is always good. I think before I get into the good and bad of last week I should highlight the importance of playing both “cash” and “GPPs” each week (for the most part). The reason I was profitable this past week was because I allocated about 50-60% of my capital into cash games which can save you (or bolster up) on a week where your core doesn’t smash or an unexpected MC from a guy who you have 50% ownership on. This point is not an original thought of mine but one I learned from Kenny Kim (@kendovt on Twitter) and I have deployed this strategy over the last several months to great success. I still only make 1 cash lineup and try to spread it across several contests but it’s a good way to, yes, make less sexy money and not have the upside of a $100k payday like a GPP but it remains a very important part of playing DFS. Now all that being said, I don’t LOVE playing a ton of cash games in a no-cut event like this week but it’s still worth a little (maybe 20-25% cash max). Onto the good and bad of last week.
- Went back to the well on DJ and it paid off; he reminded everyone why he’s #1 in the world
- 25% of Hun An, who finished T2, was a solid play as he’s been playing pretty well all year and the course lined up for him as he’s a big driver of the ball and solid birdie maker; had him in cash too
- Joel Dahmen in cash smashed as he continues to go on the best run of his career and rack up birdies week after week
- Fading Kuchar in GPPs was very beneficial as we gained on the field in ownership; the fade of Wesley Bryan seemed obvious to me but man him just imploding and then getting DQ’d was unexpected…
- I should have known playing Bubba/Sergio for the first time all year would end badly. It did.
- Liked Sam Saunders quite a bit but after his bad Thursday he did a great job of crushing about 1/3 of my lineups with both DJ and Hun An. Not good.
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance:
- SG: T2G (normally exclude in this list but wanted to highlight its significance this week)
- SG: APP (Emphasis on approaches from 150-200)
- GIRs Gained
- Driving Distance Gained
- Fairways Gained
- Par 4 Efficiency from 450-500 yards
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Tiger Woods ($10,800): First off, it would be off brand for me to not include Tiger on the guys I’m targeting but eight wins here? I can’t fade that… Tiger is coming in off that hot T6 finish at The Open I think things couldn’t set up more perfectly. He’s 4th in my model this week and comes in 5th in SG: T2G in this field, 2nd in SG: APP, 12th in SG: Par 5s, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, and 9th in BoB. He clearly has the stats, CLEARLY has the history and now has a T6 and T4 in his last 2 starts. I’ll take at least 50% since he’ll be the mega-chalk this week.
Justin Rose ($10,700): I’m not really sure what there is to say about Rose this year that we don’t already know. The man has been nothing short of fire all year and with the exception of the last 6 weeks of Molinari play (3 wins and 2 2nd place finishes), Rose is the hottest player on the planet. His last 5 starts: T2, T9, T10, T6, 1st. Wow. At Firestone, Rose has racked up 3 Top 5s and although hasn’t been as dominant the last 2 years, I see him as a Top 5 this week. Lastly, Rose is #1 in my overall model which includes 6th in my stats model, 1st in my form model, and 2nd in my history model. Will most likely come in chalky as well so I will target probably 50-60%.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
Zach Johnson ($8,100): In such a loaded field, as well as a loaded 8k range, I’m hoping that ZJ’s ownership can stay at least a little bit down this week but that remains to be seen. ZJ comes in riding 4 straight Top 20s, which includes both the US Open and Open Championship and has a fantastic course history here of 2 Top 10s and 2 Top 5s. In fact, in the last 10 years at Firestone, he’s never finished worse than 40th. Stats wise, ZJ ranks Top 25 in SG: T2G, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Par 5s (surprising), and BoB%. He also ranks 2nd in my putting stat this week (SG: P on Fast/Bentgrass Greens). I like ZJ to put up another solid performance and I’m thinking 25-30% exposure.
Adam Scott ($7,500): This price for Adam Scott seems a little bit low to me despite him not having the best year. Scott’s history here speaks for itself as he’s a former winner here (2011) and also has 3 Top 10s and 2 Top 15s. It’s no secret that Scott isn’t the best putter but looking at his other stats he’s 10th in the field in SG: T2G, 8th in SG: APP, 5th in SG: Ball Striking, and 13th in GIRs Gained. Hopefully Scott can get that “non-anchored” putter (questionable) working and give us a solid finish. He’s one of my favorite plays of the week and I’ll probably target at least 40%.
Matt Kuchar ($7,700): Kuchar has had a pretty bad year by my account as rarely do I ever see him miss a cut in general, but 4 this year? Jeez. Despite his bad form, he still has the potential to play well at a track that he has performed extremely well at over the years. Kuchar has 2 Top 10s, a 3rd, and has never finished worse than 27th in his starts at Firestone. Stats wise, he’s 8th in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in Fairways Gained, and 12th in my putting blend. I’m hoping that Kuchar can find his game a little bit here and maybe give a “Kuchar-esque” backdoor Top 10 or Top 5 Finish. 25-30%.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays
1) Kuchar $7,700
2) Zach Jonson $8,100
3) Paul Casey $8,600
4) Adam Scott: $7,500
Fades for Me
Francesco Molinari: He’s already crushed so many weeks there’s really no point in hopping on the train now. He hasn’t played THAT well here in the past but what do I know? The guy is on fire.
Jon Rahm: A little bit too volatile for me and I think Course History plays more of a role here than normal
Rickie Fowler: Pure ownership fade and I have to make a stand somewhere. Rickie is high in my model and he, like most of the guys over 9k, are all valuable plays but I can’t take everyone!
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, and 25% Course History
- Justin Rose
- Dustin Johnson
- Rory McIlroy
- Francesco Molinari
- Paul Casey
- Henrik Stenson
- Louis Ooshuizen
- Rickie Fowler
- Tommy FleetGOD
- Zach Johnson
- Adam Scott
- Bubba Watson
- Tony Finau
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick “Can’t get Laid”
- Kevin Na
- Russell Knox
- Patrick Reed
- Brooks Koepka
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