All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman
In the interest of being transparent, I got fucking smoked last week in DK. Just got my clock cleaned through and through. It turns out the draw bias was mostly significant (with the exception of Molinari and Tiger) and when you have 60% exposure to DJ, around 30% to Grillo and you fade Rose, Molinari, Xander, Kuchar, and others in the Top 10, it’s going to be a tough week. One thing I will say… Justin Rose are you fucking kidding me? Makes a 20-foot birdie putt to make the cut ON THE NUMBER only to make a historic Saturday and Sunday run (like we knew he fucking would) and come T2. Sounds about right. From a DraftKings perspective, this is now the 2nd major in a row in which the chalk hit hard, especially in the massive Millionaire Maker, and the winner(s) was 5 duplicate lineups with over a combined 100% aggregate ownership. As I’ve learned from the experienced players, you normally are targeting, depending on the tournament, about 70-90% total ownership on your guys to take down a GPP. Clearly, I got too cute and relied on the #1 player in the world who hadn’t missed a cut in over a year to perform. This was clearly my mistake and thus here is the good and bad… (very bad)
- Well I played Tiger at around 30-35% and he finished T6 so that was nice…
- Had a solid amount of Rory (saw low ownership) and Finau, which by the way, Finau has now recorded 3 straight Top 10s in the majors this year so look out
- Did manage a FEW good fades: JT, Bubba, Sergio, Hideki, Rahm, and Branden Grace
The Quite Horrific
- Like I said above: you can’t have 60% of highest priced guy and have him MC. Moving on.
- Overweight to Grillo, Henley, Snedeker only to watch them IMPLODE on Friday was tough; Grillo continued his sucking from Thursday, Henley followed up his 69 with an 80 and Snedeker managed to go +12 over the first 2 days
- Was high on Hatton and Leishman all week and they finished T51 and T60, respectively
- He hasn’t looked good and faltered on Sunday but Spieth is GOOD at majors; let’s remember that moving forward because man it’s unreal what he does time and time again
Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)
In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):
- SG: BS (Ball Striking)
- BoB Gained
- GIRs Gained
- SG: Par 5
- Driving Distance Gained
- Fairways Gained
Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):
9K and Above:
Dustin Johnson ($11,700): Going to look my wounds after last week and take the man that is #1 in my model again (uh oh) because he clearly is still the class of the field and one miserable performance won’t change that. Obviously one of the longest players on tour, DJ ranks 4th in BoB Gained, 3rd in SG: BS, 2nd in SG: T2G, and 6th in Proximity from 125-175. Besides his finish last week, DJ still has been strong all year and I think he’ll redeem himself at RBC. He has two 2nd place finishes this year as well as an 8th here last year so he clearly likes the set up and plethora of Par 5s. I will target 40-50%.
Bubba Watson ($9,900): Anyone who knows me knows I’m definitely not a Bubba guy but I said a few weeks ago I wouldn’t fade him anymore at tracks he plays well at and I think this is another one. Bubba has a 2nd place finish here as well as a 21st and as a longer hitter, I like how this sets up. Bubba is 9th in this field in SG: T2G, 7th in Driving Distance Gained, 11th in BoB Gained, and 12th in SG: BS. He has a couple wins this year and now that he’s back from Europe I think he’ll be once again laser focused. Tough to figure out exposure this week as Bubba will be chalk but I’ll probably aim at least 25-30%.
Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):
J.B. Holmes ($8,900): Nothing like feeling good about a guy who ranks 7th in my overall model who is streaky as anyone and sucks at putting. Holmes has been universally hated ever since the Farmers when he took forever to hit a meaningless shot for no reason on #18 on Sunday (which hopefully means his ownership will stay down). Holmes is streaky, as I mentioned; take his last 5 tournaments: MC, MC, 2nd, 3rd, 13th. He ranks 14th in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: BS, 15th in SG: Par 5s, and 21st in Driving Distance Gained. Holmes hasn’t lit this place up but does have 2 Top 20 finishes and I think is worth a good amount of DK exposure this week. I’ll aim for around 25-30% or so.
Byeong Hun An ($7,800): Hun An has been pretty consistent all year with the near win at the Memorial and only 1 MC in the last 3 months. He has never played this course before which could be a bit of a detractor, but stats wise he ranks 23rd in Proximity of 125-175 yards, 19th in Driving Distance Gained, and 35th in GIR%. I like this stats at this price since at $7,800 we don’t need him to win, or even Top 5 for that matter, but to make birdies and hopefully finish at least Top 20. I’ll target 20-25%.
Low Tier Options Under 7K):
Sam Saunders ($6,800): I think most degenerate PGA DFS players know that Sam Saunders can get extremely hot and make a run of birdies and just the same, go out on Friday and make a run of bogeys. Saunders actually ranks 25th in my overall model this week with 2 Top 22 or better finishes in the last 3 years (75th the other year) and a Top 5 two tournaments ago. Saunders is 28th in BoB Gained in the field, 17th in Proximity from 200+ yards, and 36th in Driving Distance Gained. We’ve seen what this kid can do and at $6,800 with hopefully well under 5% ownership, I think 10-12% exposure is worth it.
Fliers (Take it or Leave it):
Tom Lovelady ($6,800): This guy fucking kills the ball as he’s ranked 1st in this field in Driving Distance Gained, 5th in SG: Par 5s, 21st in BoB Gained, and 17th in DK Points Gained. He can be inconsistent and has never played here but did finish 2nd at the Barbasol last week so maybe he can ride some form. I’ll probably target around 10-12%.
Cameron Champ ($7,000): Unfortunately, this guy has the chance to be talked up by a lot of people and be low-priced chalk but on the Web.com tour here are his last 5 starts: 1st, 8th, 5th, 7th, 4th. Pretty solid if you ask me and yes he’s doing this on a weaker tour and he could just as easily miss this cut by 10 shots but man that is some hot form. I’ll risk it and take 5-7% probably.
My Favorite Cash Game Plays
1) Kuchar (probably a GPP fade for me due to ownership): $9,500
2) Finau (same reason as above): $9,800
3) Charley Hoffman: $8,700
4) Joel Dahmen: $7,400
5) Stewart Cink: $7,100
Fades for Me
Wesley Bryan: $8,300 price tag for a guy who has sucked and blows off the tee seems ludicrous to me. Since I said that I would go ahead and lock him in for a Top 10
Jhonattan Vegas: Yeah, he’s won here twice but his form is just too bad for me (despite him coming into here with bad form the last 2 years also). I think he sees double digit ownership which is too high for me.
Chris Kirk: Ranking high in my model but he has the potential to be “Webb Chalk” which is something you never want… Stats lineup but man, I could see Kirk at 15-20% owned which is too high. Pass.
My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 40% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, and 15% Course History
- Dustin Johnson
- Tony Finau
- Bubba Watson
- Stewart Cink
- Matt Kuchar
- Brooks Koepka
- B. Holmes
- Charley Hoffman
- Harold Varner III
- Joel Dahmen
- Ian Poulter
- Keegan Bradley
- Chris Kirk
- Joaquin Niemann
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Bronson Burgoon
- Troy Merritt
- Gary Woodland
- Sam Ryder
- Billy Horschel
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