Quicken Loans “The National” DraftKings Preview

All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com!

Quick Travelers Championship Recap

After his 3rd win this season I think I’ve finally learned that you play Bubba on Bubba tracks. 2 of his wins this year have now come at courses that he consistently plays well at: He’s now won at Riviera (Genesis Open) in 2014, 2016, and 2018 and at TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) in 2015, 2015, and 2018. Bubba clearly knows what courses he likes and doesn’t like, and has always been very vocal about that, but sometimes you need to eat the chalk and make a smart pick. I did not do that last week. DFS golf was very fun for me through midday Saturday as my core was hitting and I saw Lovemark making a run; however, my fade of Casey due to ownership and fade of Bubba ended up costing me a big ROI and I saw myself just barely breaking even. Such is life and we’re onto the terrible Quicken Loans field. What went right? What went wrong?

The Good

Going overweight on Lovemark was very solid through the first 3 days as he saw himself in the Top 5. After 2 doubles on Sunday though and a T19 finish I’ll take it, but wow what could have been there.

-The fades of Leishman, Steele, and Moore can go in my “good” section this week since there wasn’t a ton of good in my core. Moore was simply too highly owned and everyone should know his week to week successes or failures have been if his putter gets hot.

-Heavy overweight on Stanley proved to be successful as I thought it would be a ball striker’s paradise and it was as we saw the likes of Holmes, Casey, and Stanley near the top of the leaderboard.

The Bad

-Having Xander and Webb in my core did not work out as they missed the cut. BUT. Didn’t I tell whomever decided to read this (I’m going to assume not many) that I never get Xander right and that you should fade if I am going in on him? Well, look what happened. I warned you.

-Rory Sabbatini was making a nice run to maybe sneak into the cutline on Friday but a bizarre triple squashed those dreams just as they had started to take form. Backing a guy like that was probably stupid on my part but he had been playing well and he seemed to be a good fit. We live and learn.

-The biggest driver of ownership is normally recent form and you’ll often hear players say that if they’re playing well that it normally carries over for many weeks. Harman does not fit this case as I thought his stats didn’t make sense for the week and he hadn’t had too many great finishes but alas, I was very wrong. Also, the fade of Cantlay due to ownership I stand by but man his run on the weekend hurt.

Quicken Loans “The National”

For a comprehensive course preview and what I see as important to succeed this week, please see my article that I released yesterday (Monday). The first thing to note is that the only recent PGA tournament played here was in 2017 so I wouldn’t rank course history as very important, if at all. What is important is that this rough is thick and penalizing, fairways are narrow, greens are smaller and hard to hit, and this is not the typical birdie-fest that we’ve become accustomed to seeing week after week. As we’ll see noted below, avoiding bogeys and scoring on the longer Par 4s will be key to success.

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance (excluding SG: T2G since it’s ALWAYS key):

  • SG: BS (Ball Striking)
  • Fairways Gained
  • SG: APP (150-200 yards)
  • GIRs Gained (%)
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: Par 4 (emphasis on Par 4s from 450-500 Yards)

Players I’m Targeting This Week (and my approximate exposures):

10K and Above:

Rickie Fowler ($11,700): Fowler is clearly the class of the field and almost certainly here just because of his sponsorship deal with Quicken Loans. That being said, he has every single stat to succeed here, has been on a solid streak of finishes this year. At 8th in the world rankings, I don’t think we need much convincing but here are the stats: 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in DK Points scored, 6th in Proximity from 150-200 yards, and he also finished 3rd here last year. Mix all of this in with the fact that the highest priced guy on DK consistently goes under owned, I love this play. I’ll probably target around 50%.

Tiger Woods ($11,000): Yeah, I’m playing Tiger Woods. I love him, this is a weak field, and I think he has a strong chance to win. 2nd in SG: T2G in the field and 7th in SG: BS. Love it. He’ll be mega chalk so to go overweight I’ll probably need 30-40% at least?

Upper-Tier Options (8.0K to 9.9K):

Kevin Streelman ($8,700): Another guy that I think will be popular in cash games, and for good reason. He has the stats line up perfectly as he’s 21st in SG: T2G, 6th in Proximity from 150-200, 5th in SG: BS, 5th in SG: APP, and 14th in GIR%. Streelman hasn’t been as hot as he was earlier in the year but I see him as a consistent cut maker and he finished Top 20 here last year. I think I’ll target around 30% as he should be somewhat popular.

Stewart Cink ($8,500): I can’t remember the last time I played this guy but his form has been on fire recently. He just finished 2nd after a fantastic Sunday round at TPC River Highlands and his previous tournament he finished 4th at the St. Jude Classic. Cink is 17th in SG: T2G in this field, 14th in SG: BS, 7th in SG: APP, and 12th in GIR%. I think he’s a strong play at this price and a definite contender to be in your cash game lineups. I think I’ll target around 30-35% as I could see him getting some buzz this week.

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 7.9K):

Ryan Blaum ($7,600): I’m hoping Blaum doesn’t get talked up too much but the fantasy industry leaders as I think he’ll be one of the more solid players below the $8K threshold. His last 4 finishes: 12th, 18th, MC, and 6th, which for a younger guy is very solid. Blaum can be very sporadic as he doesn’t rank incredibly high in Proximity from 150-200 but he is Top 30 in DK Points Scored and Top 50 in Scrambling, SG: OTT, and Fairways Gained. Blaum is definitely not someone to go all in on or even 50% but I think having 10-15% should put you well overweight to the field for a guy with solid upside.

Brian Gay ($7,400): Consistently one of the best putters on tour, this guy has been quietly having one of his more solid years. In his last 4 starts he has 3 Top 20s, which includes 2 Top 12s and the Top 20 coming at the US Open. He ranks 2nd in this field in Fairways Gained, 20th in Par 4 Scoring from 450-500 yards, and 31st in GIR%. I think this is a solid price and although he could get some decent buzz I like him a lot this week. I think I will target 20-25%.

Low-Tier Options (Under 7K):

Tyler Duncan ($6,700): I love this kid and I think he has a bright, bright future. He’s not cranking out Top 5 after Top 5 like Niemann has, but he has made 5 straight cuts including the US Open where he didn’t finish high up there (56th) but making the cut in itself was impressive to me. In this field, and granted he has less rounds to account for, he is 16th in SG: T2G, 9th in Proximity from 150-200, 15th in SG: BS, 16th in GIR%, and 13th in SG: OTT. I expect him to now miss the cut by 10 shots after my support behind him but I think I might target 15-20% and hopefully be 3x or 4x on the field.

Fliers (Take it or Leave it):

Ben Crane ($6,700): Hits a lot of fairways and scores well on Par 4s from 450-500 yards. After being extreme chalk at St. Jude and missing the cut I think people will be off of him. He’s very streaky so be careful but I think owning 5-10% puts you heavily overweight.

Robert Garrigus ($6,700): Garrigus has the ability to miss the cut by about 20 but in this field he is SECOND in SG: APP and 8th in SG: BS. He does make a fair amount of bogeys and on this course that can be your downfall but I think going 10% on a guy I expect around 5% owned is worth the risk.

Fades for Me

David Lingmerth: Will get ownership since he won a Web.com event here in 2012 but his form is awful

Andrew Putnam: His stats line up better than anyone (1st in my stats model) but my goodness he’s about to be chalk at $7,900 after finishing 2nd to DJ at the St. Jude. If I’m wrong on this one so be it but Putnam being 15+% at minimum is a hard pass for me.

Joaquin Niemann: Just an ownership fade for me. I see him being almost 20% and even though I like him and will root for him, $9,000 and maybe 20% is a lot to stomach.

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 50% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, and 5% Course History

  • Rickie Fowler
  • Jimmy Walker
  • Kyle Stanley
  • B. Holmes
  • Byeong Hun An
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Kevin Na
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Tiger Woods
  • Andrew Putnam
  • Kevin Streelman
  • Stewart Cink
  • Kiradech Aphibarnrat
  • Jamie Lovemark
  • Patrick Rodgers
  • Beau Hossler
  • Charles Howell III
  • Chesson Hadley
  • Marc Leishman
  • Richy Werenski

Top 5 Highest Owned Predictions

  • Charles Howell III 25+%
  • Tiger Woods 25+%
  • Kyle Stanley 20%
  • Andrew Putnam 20%
  • Francesco Molinari 20%

Potential Low Owned Sleepers

  • Ben Crane 3%
  • Bronson Burgoon 1%
  • Lanto Griffin 2%
  • Andrew Landry 2%
  • Dylan Meyer 2%

 

Follow me on Twitter @sscherman and follow @AmateurHour_Pod too for picks, podcasts with FIRE guests, and weekly picks to win!!

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